Central Florida vs Boise State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 2

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Boise State running back George Holani (24) runs with the ball against Utah State in the second half of an NCAA college football game, Friday, Nov. 25, 2022, in Boise, Idaho. Boise State won 42-23. (AP Photo/Steve Conner)
(AP Photo/Steve Conner)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 08, 2023, 3:08 PM
  • Central Florida is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Boise State
  • Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The UCF Knights visit Albertsons Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos on Sep. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Boise.

Central Florida is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Central Florida vs. Boise State Over/Under is 60.5 total points.

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Central Florida vs. Boise State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 2

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Central Florida-3.5 -11060.5 -115-165
Boise State +3.5 -11060.5 -105+135

Central Florida vs Boise State Prediction for Week 2

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 63.1% confidence.

Central Florida vs Boise State Spread Prediction for Week 2

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCF will cover the spread with 64.1% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Central Florida and Boise State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • UCF have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Boise State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)

Best Central Florida Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Central Florida players for Week 2, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • John Rhys Plumlee has hit the Passing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • John Rhys Plumlee has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Javon Baker has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • John Rhys Plumlee has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.80 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Boise State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Boise State players for Week 2, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • George Holani has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 78% ROI)

Central Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Central Florida is 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -9.69% ROI
  • Central Florida is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Central Florida is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boise State is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Boise State is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Boise State is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Boise State is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Central Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State

UCF is winless (0-1) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447

UCF is winless (0-1) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .420

UCF is winless (0-1) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .353

UCF is 1-1 (.042) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .398

Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. Central Florida

Boise State is 16-4 (.762) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season– tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .538

Boise State is 16-3 (.800) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season– tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .565

Boise State is winless (0-3) when allowing 3 or more sacks since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .284

Boise State was 7-1 (.778) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season– tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .513

Matchup Notes for Central Florida vs. Boise State

Boise State’s QBs threw for 2,760 passing yards in 14 games (just 197.1 YPG) in the 2022 season — 23rd-worst among FBS teams. UCF’s defense allowed just 232.6 passing yards per game in the 2022 season — third-best among Big 12 defenses.

Boise State’s offense threw for 2,649 passing yards in 14 games (just 189.2 YPG) in the 2022 season — 23rd-worst among FBS offenses. UCF’s defense allowed just 232.6 passing yards per game in the 2022 season — third-best among Big 12 defenses.

Boise State had 228 receptions in 14 games (just 16.3 per game) in the 2022 season — 31st-worst among FBS skill players. UCF’s defense allowed just 19.1 receptions per game in the 2022 season — tied for fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

UCF’s TEs has 54 receptions in 27 games (just 2.0 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among P5 TEs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 15.0 receptions per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best among NonP5 defenses.

UCF’s TEs has 54 receptions in 27 games (just 2.0 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among P5 TEs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 15.0 receptions per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS defenses.

UCF’s TEs had 30 receptions in 14 games (just 2.1 per game) in the 2022 season — fourth-worst among Big 12 TEs. Boise State’s defense allowed just 13.4 receptions per game in the 2022 season — third-best among NonP5 defenses.

Central Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

UCF QBs have rushed for 85 yards in the 1st quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

UCF’s TEs has 54 receptions in 27 games (just 2.0 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among P5 TEs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 15.0 receptions per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best among NonP5 defenses.

UCF’s TEs has 54 receptions in 27 games (just 2.0 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among P5 TEs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 15.0 receptions per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS defenses.

UCF’s TEs had 30 receptions in 14 games (just 2.1 per game) in the 2022 season — fourth-worst among Big 12 TEs. Boise State’s defense allowed just 13.4 receptions per game in the 2022 season — third-best among NonP5 defenses.

UCF QBs have averaged 90.0 rushing yards per game (90/1) in the 1st half this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 16.5

Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends

Boise State’s QBs threw for 2,760 passing yards in 14 games (just 197.1 YPG) in the 2022 season — 23rd-worst among FBS teams. UCF’s defense allowed just 232.6 passing yards per game in the 2022 season — third-best among Big 12 defenses.

Boise State QBs averaged 16.5 Yards per Carry (181 yards/11 carries) in close and late situations in the 2022 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 2.4

Boise State’s offense threw for 2,649 passing yards in 14 games (just 189.2 YPG) in the 2022 season — 23rd-worst among FBS offenses. UCF’s defense allowed just 232.6 passing yards per game in the 2022 season — third-best among Big 12 defenses.

Boise State WRs have been targeted 7 times in short yardage situations this season– tied for 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Boise State had 228 receptions in 14 games (just 16.3 per game) in the 2022 season — 31st-worst among FBS skill players. UCF’s defense allowed just 19.1 receptions per game in the 2022 season — tied for fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

UCF Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

UCF opponents has averaged 37.3 Passing Attempts per TD (821 Pass Attempts/22 Passing TDs) since the 2021 season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 18.8

UCF has allowed 22 touchdowns on 476 completions (21.6 Completions Per TD) since the 2021 season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.4

UCF opponents has averaged 6.3 Passing Attempts per TD (95 Pass Attempts/15 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.9

UCF opponents has averaged 37.3 Passing Attempts per TD (821 Pass Attempts/22 Passing TDs) since the 2021 season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 20.1

UCF opponents averaged 35.6 Passing Attempts per TD (356 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) in the 2022 season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.3

Boise State Broncos Defensive Stats & Trends

Boise State has allowed a passer rating of just 81.3 in the Red Zone (63.0 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 163.4

Boise State allowed a passer rating of just 41.3 in the Red Zone (24.0 Pass Attempts) in the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: 161.7

Boise State allowed a passer rating of just 41.3 in the Red Zone (24.0 Pass Attempts) in the 2022 season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 164.5

Boise State has not recorded a sack (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

Boise State has allowed a passer rating of just 81.3 in the Red Zone (63.0 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 166.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.