Central Florida vs Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 10, 2025, 11:16 AM

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FILE - Cincinnati head coach Scott Satterfield, center, leads the team onto the field before an NCAA college football game against Central Florida, Oct. 12, 2024, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Cincinnati is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Central Florida
UCF vs. Cincinnati Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: FS1

UCF (3-2) visit Nippert Stadium to take on Cincinnati (4-1) on Oct. 11 in Cincinnati, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Cincinnati is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-105).

The UCF vs. Cincinnati Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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UCF vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
UCF	+11.5 -115	53.5 -110	320
Cincinnati	-11.5 -105	53.5 -110	-425

UCF vs Cincinnati Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Cincinnati will win this game with 77.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Central Florida and Cincinnati, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UCF vs Cincinnati Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCF will cover the spread with 50.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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UCF Best Bets Today

UCF has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.65 Units / 5% ROI)
UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.45 Units / 3% ROI)

Cincinnati Best Bets Today

Cincinnati have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.35 Units / 35% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Cincinnati have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.00 Units / 7% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)

UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida is 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

UCF is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
UCF is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
UCF is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Cincinnati iss 4-1 against the spread this college football season (+2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI).

Cincinnati is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 13.58% ROI
Cincinnati is 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Cincinnati is 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI

UCF: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati

UCF has 277 receptions in 17 games (just 16.3 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 skill players. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 19.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

UCF’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.5% of 462 attempts since the 2024 season — T-33rd-best among FBS offenses. Cincinnati’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.8% of attempts since the 2024 season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

UCF WRs have averaged 32.2 yards per reception (161 yards/5 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

UCF’s RBs has rushed for 2,907 yards on 449 carries (6.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-best among FBS RBs. Cincinnati’s defense have allowed 4.3 YPC since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

UCF has 277 receptions in 17 games (just 16.3 per game) since the 2024 season — 29th-worst among FBS skill players. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 19.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. UCF

Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Cincinnati is 2-6 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .529

Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Cincinnati was 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .418

Matchup Notes for UCF vs. Cincinnati

Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Cincinnati is 2-6 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .529

Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Cincinnati was 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .418

UCF WRs have averaged 32.2 yards per reception (161 yards/5 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

UCF Offensive Stats & Trends

UCF WRs have averaged 32.2 yards per reception (161 yards/5 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Cincinnati Offensive Stats & Trends

Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Cincinnati is 2-6 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .529

Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Cincinnati was 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .418

UCF Defensive Stats & Trends

UCF WRs have averaged 32.2 yards per reception (161 yards/5 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Cincinnati Defensive Stats & Trends

Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Cincinnati is 2-6 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .529

Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Cincinnati was 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .418

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