Central Florida vs South Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2022, 9:05 AM
  • Central Florida (8-3) are -19.5 point favorites vs South Florida (1-10)
  • Total (Over/Under): 68.5 points

The UCF Knights (9-3) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the South Florida Bulls (1-11) on Nov. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Tampa.

are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at ().

The Central Florida vs. South Florida Over/Under is total points.

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Central Florida vs. South Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Central Florida
South Florida

Central Florida vs South Florida Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 70.3% confidence.

Central Florida vs South Florida Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Florida will cover the spread with 64.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Central Florida and South Florida, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.85 Units / 28% ROI)
  • UCF have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+9.63 Units / 67% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • South Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.09 Units / 23% ROI)
  • South Florida has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)

Central Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Central Florida is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -10.11% ROI
  • Central Florida is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Central Florida is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

South Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Florida has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • South Florida is 0-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.6 Units / -100% ROI
  • South Florida is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
  • South Florida is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Central Florida: Keys to the Game vs. South Florida

#25 UCF is undefeated (6-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — 10th-best in FBS; Average: .504

#25 UCF is 9-2 (.750) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .508

South Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Central Florida

South Florida is winless (0-17) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .425

South Florida is winless (0-16) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .448

South Florida is winless (0-19) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .397

South Florida is winless (0-7) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .494

Matchup Notes for Central Florida vs. South Florida

UCF’s QBs has 699 rushing yards this season — fifth-most among FBS teams. South Florida’s defense has allowed 2,182 rushing yards this season — fourth-most among FBS defenses.

UCF’s QBs has 699 rushing yards this season — fifth-most among FBS teams. South Florida’s defense has allowed 2,182 rushing yards this season — third-most among NonP5 defenses.

Central Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

#25 UCF QBs have rushed for 8 TDs in the 1st quarter since last season– 4th most among FBS Teams

#25 UCF QBs have rushed for 5 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

UCF’s QBs has 699 rushing yards this season — fifth-most among FBS teams. South Florida’s defense has allowed 2,182 rushing yards this season — fourth-most among FBS defenses.

#25 UCF TEs have averaged 14.1 yards per target (113 yards/8 targets) on 3rd down this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.5

#25 UCF QBs have averaged 43.1 rushing yards per game (431/10) in the 1st half this season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7

South Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

South Florida RBs have no touchdowns on 54 receptions since last season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 20.9

South Florida Skill Players have just one touchdown on 47 receptions in close and late situations since last season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

South Florida TEs have averaged a touchdown every 2.8 receptions (11 Rec/4 TDs) this season– tied for 3rd best Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.4

South Florida Skill Players have averaged just 4.2 yards per target (134 yards/32 targets) in close and late situations this season– tied for 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 7.0

South Florida QBs have averaged 7.0 Yards per Carry (258 yards/37 carries) in the 1st half this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 2.9

UCF Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

#25 UCF opponents has averaged 38.1 Passing Attempts per TD (801 Pass Attempts/21 Passing TDs) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 18.7

#25 UCF has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 3 of 801 attempts (0%) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

#25 UCF opponents has averaged 38.1 Passing Attempts per TD (801 Pass Attempts/21 Passing TDs) since last season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 20.1

#25 UCF opponents has averaged 6.6 Passing Attempts per TD (93 Pass Attempts/14 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.9

#25 UCF opponents has averaged 37.3 Passing Attempts per TD (336 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) this season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.2

South Florida Bulls Defensive Stats & Trends

South Florida has averaged a sack every 33.1 pass attempts (695 Pass Attempts/21 Sacks) since the 2021 season– worst in FBS; Average: 14.2

South Florida has averaged a sack every 33.1 pass attempts (695 Pass Attempts/21 Sacks) since the 2021 season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.0

South Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 73% (233 completions/317 attempts) — worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

South Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 85% (39 completions/46 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 59%

South Florida has allowed opponents to catch 232 of 316 passes (73% Reception Pct) this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.