Central Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 05, 2023, 1:30 PM
  • Michigan State is a -14.5 point favorite vs Central Michigan
  • Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Central Michigan Chippewas visit Spartan Stadium to take on the Michigan State Spartans on Sep. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in East Lansing.

is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at ().

The Central Michigan vs. Michigan State Over/Under is total points.

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Central Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Central Michigan
Michigan State

Central Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Michigan State will win this game with 83.9% confidence.

Central Michigan vs Michigan State Spread Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Central Michigan will cover the spread with 63.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Central Michigan and Michigan State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Michigan State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan State players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tre Mosley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jalen Berger has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Central Michigan has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Central Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Central Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+4.35 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Central Michigan has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Central Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+10.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.19 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games (+4.30 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)

Central Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Michigan went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Central Michigan went 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.4 Units / -50.36% ROI
  • Central Michigan went 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Central Michigan went 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan State went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Michigan State went 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.15% ROI
  • Michigan State went 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
  • Michigan State went 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Central Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

Central Michigan is 9-1 (.900) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 5th-best in FBS; Average: .569

Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Central Michigan

Michigan State is 12-3 (.632) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2021 season– 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .431

Michigan State is 15-3 (.789) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2021 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .499

Michigan State was 5-2 (.714) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times in the 2022 season– tied for 15th-best in FBS; Average: .504

Michigan State is 11-2 (.786) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season– 14th-best in FBS; Average: .555

Matchup Notes for Central Michigan vs. Michigan State

Tre Mosley (MSU) gained 359 yards on 35 receptions (just 10.3 YPR) in the 2022 season — fourth-worst of Qualified Big Ten Wide Receiverss. Central Michigan’s defense allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception to TEs in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State’s TEs gained 546 yards on 52 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) in the 2022 season — fifth-worst among Big Ten TEs. Central Michigan’s defense allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception to TEs in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State averaged 33.2 targets per game in the 2022 season — fourth-highest among Big Ten skill players. Central Michigan’s defense allowed 4.3 receptions per game to TEs in the 2022 season — tied for ninth-worst among FBS defenses.

Central Michigan’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 8.2% of 389 attempts in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-worst among FBS offenses. Michigan State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 9.7% of attempts in the 2022 season — tied for fifth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Central Michigan’s WRs had just 121.8 receiving yards per game in the 2022 season — 17th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 237.9 receiving yards per game in the 2022 season — second-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Central Michigan’s WRs had just 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game in the 2022 season — tied for 18th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game in the 2022 season — tied for fifth-worst among P5 defenses.

Central Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

Central Michigan’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 8.2% of 389 attempts in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-worst among FBS offenses. Michigan State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 9.7% of attempts in the 2022 season — tied for fifth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Central Michigan’s WRs had just 121.8 receiving yards per game in the 2022 season — 17th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 237.9 receiving yards per game in the 2022 season — second-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Central Michigan’s WRs had just 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game in the 2022 season — tied for 18th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game in the 2022 season — tied for fifth-worst among P5 defenses.

Central Michigan’s WRs had 117 receptions in 12 games (just 9.8 per game) in the 2022 season — 19th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 19.9 receptions per game in the 2022 season — third-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Central Michigan’s WRs had 117 receptions in 12 games (just 9.8 per game) in the 2022 season — 19th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan State’s defense allowed just 11.2 receptions per game to WRs in the 2022 season — tied for 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State’s TEs gained 546 yards on 52 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) in the 2022 season — fifth-worst among Big Ten TEs. Central Michigan’s defense allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception to TEs in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State averaged 33.2 targets per game in the 2022 season — fourth-highest among Big Ten skill players. Central Michigan’s defense allowed 4.3 receptions per game to TEs in the 2022 season — tied for ninth-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State RBs had no touchdowns on 38 receptions in the 2022 season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 20.8

Michigan State’s WRs has 322 receptions in 25 games (12.9 per game) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big Ten WRs. Central Michigan’s defense has allowed 14.4 receptions per game to WRs since the 2021 season — tied for 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan State’s TEs averaged 7.4 targets per game in the 2022 season — second-highest among Big Ten TEs. Central Michigan’s defense allowed 4.3 receptions per game to TEs in the 2022 season — tied for ninth-worst among FBS defenses.

Central Michigan Chippewas Defensive Stats & Trends

Central Michigan has intercepted 9 of 810 attempts (90.0 pass attempts per int.) since the 2021 season– worst in FBS; Average: 37.9

Central Michigan has intercepted 9 of 810 attempts (90.0 pass attempts per int.) since the 2021 season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 38.0

Central Michigan intercepted 4 of 387 attempts (96.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2022 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 37.0

Central Michigan has allowed 4.8 touchdowns per interception (43 TDs allowed, and 9 INT) since the 2021 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.9

Central Michigan has tackled opponents for a loss on 202 of 941 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Michigan State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State allowed 13.0 touchdowns per interception (26 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) in the 2022 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.8

Michigan State allowed 13.0 touchdowns per interception (26 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) in the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.9

Michigan State intercepted 2 of 361 attempts (180.5 pass attempts per int.) in the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 38.0

Michigan State intercepted 2 of 361 attempts (180.5 pass attempts per int.) in the 2022 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 39.1

Michigan State has allowed 21 rushing TDs on 168 carries (8 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.