College Football Predictions & Best Bets For Week 4

College football betting is heating up as conference play approaches. 

Fortunately, this column has been a very profitable place for handicappers to look for hidden gems in the college football schedule. So far, my NCAA best bets are 15-7. 

As always, the BetMGM online sportsbook has all the college football odds needed to enjoy this weekend and beyond. Bookmark this page and make sure you check back throughout the week, as I may add more bets to my card.

College Football Best Bets (Week 4)

James Madison vs. North Carolina Prediction

Spread: UNC -10.5; Total: 47.5

Last year, I would have stolen a ticket from a small child to own this kind of position with JMU vs. an ACC team.

Alas, this year’s JMU team has a lot to rebuild after head coach Curt Cignetti took half the starters to Indiana, and JMU has really struggled to do very basic things so far. (Disclaimer for the non-regular readers: I am a James Madison alum and watch the team very carefully.)

The Tar Heels have their issues, no doubt. But the Dukes have a startling talent deficit, relative to their usual roster, and I haven’t seen anything through two games against Charlotte and FCS Gardner-Webb that tells me they can play a competitive team against a top-40 team. 

Prediction: North Carolina -10.5

UCLA vs. LSU Prediction

Spread: LSU -24; Total: 56.5

When Indiana was priced as a three-point favorite last week, it was clear to me that the market didn’t appreciate how good the Hoosiers were or how bad the Bruins might be.

After a dominating win from Indiana, the market has likely corrected on the Hoosiers. But with UCLA going to Baton Rouge and only catching 24 points, I think it’s possible the market is still too high on one of the worst teams in the new-look Big Ten. 

It’s early in the season, but LSU is fairly battle-tested for mid-September, considering they’ve already played road or neutral games against USC and South Carolina. I think Brian Kelly has actually done a pretty good job coaching the team forward from Week 1 to Week 4, and I think that will show up in this Saturday’s margin against a bad team.

Prediction: LSU -24

Tulane vs. Louisiana Prediction

Spread: Tulane -3.5; Total: 54.5

This is probably my favorite bet of the week. Tulane is 1-2 because it spent the last two weeks testing itself against Kansas State and Oklahoma – two of the 20 best teams in FBS this year. It arguably outplayed the former in Week 2 and deserved to win.

Now, Tulane plays Louisiana – an in-state rival of sorts – after the Ragin’ Cajuns have essentially opened the season with two FCS opponents and an off week. (Kennesaw State is transitioning to FBS and will struggle to be competitive for a while.)

Tulane is the outright better team and is way more battle-tested. The market was way soft on this opener at Tulane -3, which is why we’ve already seen the number move to Tulane -3.5. My buy point runs all the way to Tulane -5.5.

Prediction: Tulane -3.5

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville Prediction

Spread: Louisville -10; Total: 57.5

This number is putting a lot of stock in the small poll number next to Louisville’s name. The Cardinals are 2-0 with wins over FCS Austin Peay and Jacksonville State.

Georgia Tech is 3-1 – twice the number of game reps! – and head coach Brent Key appears to be some kind of savant when it comes to playing ranked opponents. I think this is too many points.

Prediction: Georgia Tech +10

East Carolina vs. Liberty Prediction

Spread: Liberty -7; Total: 53.5

The market has been writing point spreads for Liberty as though this Flames team is just as good as last year’s squad, but that doesn’t seem to be true. Liberty is struggling to put away pretty meh teams. It even needed a dramatic double-digit comeback to avoid a Week 2 upset loss to New Mexico State. 

East Carolina is, by far, the best team Liberty has played this season. A full touchdown seems more than a whiff too heavy for the Flames, at least based on what they’ve shown so far this season.

Prediction: East Carolina +7