College Football Best Bets: Week 14

College football is back.

Each week, writers and editors for The Roar will comb through the college football odds to find their favorite bets for that particular week.

Here are the staff’s favorite plays for Week 14:

College Football Best Bets: Week 14

Andrew Doughty (Season Record: 6-7)

Pick: Big 12 Championship Game: TCU -2.5 (vs. Kansas State)

TCU has been undervalued all season (9-2-1 ATS) and is undervalued in the Big 12 Championship as the country yearns for mass chaos in the playoff picture.

There will be no “12-1 TCU vs. 11-1 Ohio State” debate. The Horned Frogs will slice through K-State’s defense and complete the first 13-0 regular season in program history.

Chase Kiddy (Season Record: 6-7)

Pick: MAC Championship Game: Toledo -1.5 (vs. Ohio)

I can’t believe my favorite play of the week comes from the MAC, of all places, but here we are.

Yes, the Mid-American is unpredictable and high-variance. But there’s something very eye-catching about hanging a 7-win team as a significant favorite against a 9-win team.

Toledo opened this spot as a 4.5-point favorite but was immediately bet down to -2.5 for a variety of reasons. Now, the number is -1.5. Some bettors don’t like their poor showing at the end of the regular season. Some are worried about roster health.

I’m inclined to trust the bookmakers, who saw enough from Toledo to make them the clear favorite in spite of the record differentials. The fact that bettors can now get this at Toledo -1.5 – basically a pick ‘em – versus laying a key number like three or four is huge.

Colton Pool (Season Record: 6-7)

Pick: SEC Championship Game: Georgia -17.5 (vs. LSU)

After LSU’s loss to Texas A&M last week, the Tigers appear vulnerable. And that’s not how you want to look before taking on Georgia.

Both of these offenses are top-tier units. The Bulldogs are seventh in offensive drive efficiency and ninth in offensive touchdown rate. The Tigers are 18th and 22nd in those categories.

But LSU’s less-explosive offense is about to face Georgia’s defense, the best in the country in both drive efficiency and touchdown rate. The Tigers defense, meanwhile, is 45th and 42nd in those areas.

I can easily see Georgia beating LSU by three touchdowns.

Ryan Hannable (Season Record: 4-9)

Pick: Big Ten Championship Game Purdue (+17) vs. Michigan

This is a classic letdown spot for Michigan following its blowout win over Ohio State last week. 

Yes, Michigan will likely still win the game, but 17 points is a decent amount for a conference championship. It’s also worth noting Michigan is 0-2 ATS this season when the spread falls between -14 and -20.5.

After losing to Iowa a few weeks ago, Purdue has won three straight games and playing some of its best football of the season. They are good enough to give Michigan a game and keep the score reasonably close.