- Below are the BetMGM staff's favorite picks for Week 5.
- Follow along over the course of the entire season.
College football is back.
Each week, writers and editors for The Roar will comb through the college football odds to find their favorite bets for that particular week.
Here are the staff’s favorite plays for Week 5.
College Football Best Bets: Week 5
Andy Coffaro (Season Record: 3-1)
Pick: Iowa +10.5 (vs. Michigan)
“As they say, [Iowa is] where top-5 teams go to die,” Jim Harbaugh said this week as his No. 4 Wolverines travel to Kinnick Stadium to take on a Hawkeyes squad giving up only five points per game through four contests.
Harbaugh’s crew coasted through the most embarrassing non-conference slate of any Power 5 team this year (Colorado State, Hawai’i, UConn) and was trailing at home in the fourth to Maryland before rallying to a 34-27 win last weekend.
To be fair, Iowa’s offense is pathetic. And by pathetic, I mean dead last in the FBS at 232.5 yards per game.
But there’s just something about Kinnick when AP top-5 teams come to town.
In Iowa's last 6 home games against AP top-5 foes:
2008 vs. 3. Penn State, W 24-23
2010 vs. 5. Michigan State, W 37-6
2016 vs. 2. Michigan, W 14-13
2017 vs. 4. Penn State, L 21-19
2017 vs. 3. Ohio State, W 55-24
2021 vs. 4. Penn State, W 23-20
This week, No. 4 Michigan
— Scott Dochterman (@ScottDochterman) September 26, 2022
I expect a low-scoring affair, and even if the Hawkeyes don’t pull another top-5 upset, a home cover feels more than reasonable.
Andrew Doughty (Season Record: 3-1)
Pick: Ole Miss at Kentucky Under 53.5
This isn’t the Ole Miss offense that finished eighth in Football Outsiders’ OFEI in 2020 and 12th in 2021, and averaged more than seven yards per play at home the last two years.
The Rebels were a great under team last year – 10-3 to the under by an average of 11.6 points – and have been a great under team this year – 3-1 by an average of 10.8 points. That should continue against a Kentucky defense that wasn’t nearly as underwhelming against Northern Illinois in Week 4 as the box score suggests.
Chase Kiddy (Season Record: 2-2)
Pick: Iowa State -3 (at Kansas)
Doughty took my favorite pick, which is just continuing to mash Ole Miss unders until somebody gives me a reason not to.
As an act of handicapping justice, I’ll pivot to another one of my favorite plays of the week: Iowa State as a road favorite at Doughty’s beloved Jayhawks.
Public Kansas hype is the 2022 equivalent of when half of Reddit got together and decided they would all get together and buy GameStop stock last year. The Jayhawks are good, but the idea that they’re Big 12 championship contenders is a bit much.
If you read my weekly notes on the Heisman betting favorites, you know that Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is now the No. 1 betting liability at the BetMGM online sportsbook which is nuts!). But also indicative of how much the public loves Kansas as something of a memelord college football squad.
So yes, it’s unsurprising that a majority of tickets are on Kansas in this spot. For the most part, though, this line really hasn’t moved, and I’m just fundamentally skeptical of public underdogs. As the saying goes, “public dogs carry fleas.”
Iowa State rebounds after the Baylor loss and bounces Kansas from the ranks of the unbeaten. Kansas +3 has finally shifted to a -115 vig, too, so you might be able to get ISU -2.5 if you’re patient.
Colton Pool (Season Record: 1-3)
Pick: NC State +6.5 (vs. Clemson)
In Clemson’s double-overtime win over Wake Forest last week, the Tigers showed they have some weaknesses. Now they face perhaps their toughest test yet.
NC State hasn’t faced a ranked opponent but has outscored four teams, 144-47.
Quarterback Devin Leary has a 144.4 passer rating, running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye averages 6.5 yards per carry and wide receiver Thayer Thomas totals 14.5 yards per reception as NC State’s offensive leaders.
There’s a chance the Tigers barely win again, this time at home, but I don’t think they’ll cover.
Ryan Hannable (Season Record: 0-4)
Pick: Louisville -15.5 (at Boston College)
While this feels like a lot of points for a home team to get in a conference game, the Eagles are really bad.
Boston College enters the game averaging just 42.7 rushing yards per game (127th in the nation) and 191.3 passing yards per game (101st in the nation). That isn’t going to get it done. They were destroyed 44-14 by Florida State a week ago, which is likely a good indication of how their season will go.
Quarterback Malik Cunningham and the Louisville offense should be able to score more than enough points to cover the 15.5-point spread and give the Cardinals their first ACC win of the season.
College Football Betting at BetMGM
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Football betting opportunities are available for hundreds of FBS and FCS games each year, including Alabama vs. Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Oregon and Oregon State in the Civil War, and the Army-Navy Game.
Whether you’re looking for moneyline parlays, over/under totals, or futures, there’s something for everyone at the online sportsbook.