- Week 10 of NCAAF is here, providing great spots to fade last week’s results.
- This week’s picks continue to draw on ugly, late-season underdogs.
- There are several appealing totals on the board this week.
Week 10 of the college football calendar has arrived, and with it comes a new table of NCAAF odds.
Accordingly, I’ve got a fresh set of picks to hand out.
College Football Best Bets: Week 10 Predictions
After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my five best plays from the wider canon of college football odds.
I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone.
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM.
Last week’s college football picks article went 4-2, which means we had yet another winning week.
North Carolina at Virginia (+7)
Virginia ranks 94th in total offense in FBS football with 360 yards per game. The Cavaliers are even worse when it comes to scoring: 123rd in FBS scoring offense, with 16.9 points per game.
Virginia also ranks outside the top 100 FBS teams when it comes to Football Outsiders’ FEI Offense metric.
If you’ve seen UVA’s offense at work this season, you know it’s basically unwatchable. So how on Earth are they supposed to keep up with Drake Maye and this UNC offense?
Laying seven on the road can be risky and square, but in a spot like this, I’m wondering what UVA’s path is to keeping this game anywhere close to the margin. Give me the Tar Heels in a total rout. I’d even look at selling some points and buying some alts in a spot like this.
Play: North Carolina -7
West Virginia at Iowa State (-7)
There’s a large school of thought that bettors should avoid betting on their own teams because they’re emotionally compromised and may not be able to make smart, objective handicaps.
That’s true – if you’re emotionally compromised. I love West Virginia, but I stopped being an irrational lunatic fan many years ago.
As a result, I have a high degree of accuracy whenever I handicap a West Virginia or James Madison football game.
I recommended betting against WVU (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) in each of the last two games against TCU and Texas Tech, as the high-octane passing offenses of those teams are a poor matchup for West Virginia’s battered secondary.
That leads us to this week’s game. I’m not sure why Iowa State (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 1-3 ATS as a favorite) should be laying a full touchdown in any Big 12 game.
West Virginia has the better quarterback and the more explosive offense. Seven points is far too many in this spot. I think they could even win the game outright (+220).
Play: West Virginia +7
Penn State at Indiana (+14)
This handicap hinges on this key question: After losses to Michigan and Ohio State, how motivated is Penn State to play out the string against the rest of the Big Ten East?
These kids aren’t stupid. They know the season is now a slow coast to the end of the regular season. How excited will they be for an afternoon trip to Bloomington in November?
Penn State is getting pounded in this spot, with more than 90% of the market-wide tickets backing the Nittany Lions. Still, the line remains frozen at 14. The BetMGM online sportsbook appears to be comfortable with its liability as presently constructed.
Penn State wins, but this has all the makings of a sloppy, 11-point win. Give me the Hoosiers.
Play: Indiana +14
Oregon at Colorado (+31.5)
Colorado is really bad. Oregon is really good. I’ve faded Colorado earlier this season. Easy pick, right?
As is always the case, bettors need to focus less on the teams and more on the number itself. And this number is actually pointing me toward Colorado.
Public bettors line up to slam good teams when it’s good vs. bad in November. More than 60% of market-wide tickets are backing Oregon, even at this number. As a result, there’s pretty much always extra inherent value on these horrible dogs.
Over dozens of bets, that value adds up to positive ROI.
So yes, this is an ugly side, but ugly sides are often inherently valuable and profitable once the calendar flips to November. And when you actually look at the margins Oregon wins by and Colorado loses by, there aren’t a whole lot of margins in the 30s.
Play: Colorado +31.5
Wake Forest at NC State (+4.5)
Here’s one of the clearest examples I can think of where those who bet college football lines aren’t locked into the details of second-level teams.
NC State quarterback Devin Leary is gone, folks. He’s out for the season. He ain’t coming back. And since that time, NC State’s offense has been straight-up bad.
NC State needed a huge fourth-quarter comeback last weekend just to get past Virginia Tech. And the Hokies are one of the worst teams in the conference!
When Sam Hartman and Wake Forest come to Raleigh this weekend, the Wolfpack will be in for a rough 60 minutes.
I would sell points here. I would take Wake Forest -10 at a great payout. I don’t think NC State has the tools to be competitive in this game.
Play: Wake Forest -4.5
I have a ton of totals I like this week, so I’m stringing a few unders together for a nice payout in this week’s CFB parlay. This is a three-teamer that pays out at +581.
- Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech Under 40.5
- Kentucky/Missouri Under 42
- San Jose State/Colorado State Under 45.5
College Football Predictions
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