College Football Expert Picks: Week 5 ATS Predictions & Best Bets

The beginning of October remains one of my personal favorite times to bet on college football.

By this point, I’m usually pretty confident that I’ve got most of the popular teams figured out. Meanwhile, the market is still trying to adjust. 

That’s a major theme of today’s best bets column, as I believe the market is either too high or too low on some prominent programs. That creates potent betting opportunities.

As always, you can start with my early Week 5 college football bets primer from Monday before jumping into today’s material.

Iowa State vs. West Virginia Prediction

The discussion around this game and point spread has been really interesting. Iowa State opened as a short favorite in the -1.5 range, and the number was almost immediately bet down to Iowa State -3. Since then, it’s bounced back and forth between -3 and -3.5.

The implication is there’s two-way action around the key number. Because of that, the sportsbook is most likely to keep it in this area until kickoff on Saturday, barring a new pattern of betting activity.

Many of the talking heads love WVU +3. I get why that’s the case. Neither of these teams are great, but the West Virginia offense is the best unit in the game and there’s a certain logic to getting three points and the better offense.

But one of my north stars as a handicapper is gravitating toward unusual or inexplicable favorites, and Iowa State certainly qualifies. The Cyclones were picked near the bottom of the Big 12; so far, their wins are Southeast Missouri (an FCS team) and Bowling Green (an FBS team that lost to an FCS team). Not exactly inspiring!

Despite that, I’m going to trust in my traditional number read that the market understands more than I do. (I could also relay to you that WVU is 0-3 straight up and ATS in Ames since 2016, but I’m not sure how relevant those stats are with Matt Campbell now at Penn State.)

Someone from the Mountaineer Maniacs will surely show up on my front porch and take away my WVU fan card in the coming days. Regardless, I like the contrarian play with Iowa State.

Prediction: Iowa State -3

Georgia vs. Vanderbilt

After one month of college football, I think I like Georgia as the No. 1 team in America right now. Kirby Smart’s trademark defense remains very good, and Gunner Stockton is giving the Bulldogs a dynamic offensive pop they haven’t seen much of since Mark Richt left. 

Let’s operate on the assumption for a moment that Georgia is the best team. Would the No. 1 team really be only -25 as a home favorite against this lousy Vanderbilt squad?

Georgia has won all four of its games by 28 points or more, and I don’t think the Commodores are going to push the Bulldogs harder than Arkansas or Oklahoma. I like Georgia football odds this week even at a big number, and I will continue to look at Georgia football odds until the market starts pricing them like a top contender. 

Prediction: Georgia -25

Indiana vs. Rutgers Prediction

Last week, I made the case that Week 4 was the moment when Cignetti would throttle up the Hoosiers and really take it to Northwestern. I liked Indiana to cover -21. 

That is … not what happened. Northwestern scored on the first play of the fourth quarter, cutting Indiana’s lead to two, and the Hoosiers had to gut out a tight fourth-quarter win. They only sealed the win when they successfully recovered an onside kick attempt in the final minute of the game, winning 29-23.

Northwestern coach David Braun noted after the game that he felt like the Wildcats arguably outplayed the reigning champs and should have won the game. That case can be made. 

Perhaps Northwestern is better than it’s getting credit for. But Indiana is still dealing with a lot of injuries, and so it’s limping through games by leaning on its coaching brilliance and its two-deep. 

Despite all this, the Hoosiers are mostly still being priced like the national champions, consistently looking at spreads of three, or four, or five touchdowns. That’s a fundamental reason why Indiana is now one of a handful of college football teams that’s 0-4 ATS right now.

I could be overreacting to last week’s result, but I think it clarified for me that Indiana isn’t going to suddenly turn it on. The Hoosiers are still good, but they’re also beat up, tired, and overvalued in the betting market. 

All that makes Rutgers look pretty appealing as a home dog that can exorcise its early demons with a valiant effort against the champs. 

Prediction: Rutgers +24.5

BYU vs. TCU Prediction

BYU is the best team in the Big 12 and a genuine College Football Playoff threat. 

If you’ve watched Big 12 football at any point over the last 13 months, you would know this. But since the national media doesn’t watch much of the Big 12, it’s asleep at the wheel on how good this BYU team actually is. 

Downstream effects for the market have pushed this line two points toward the Cougars, but still hasn’t pushed it all the way to BYU -7.

On the TCU side, the Horned Frogs are officially a major disappointment after losing to a UCF team playing its backup quarterback last week. I still think TCU’s defense is an above-average unit in the Big 12, but its offense is so bad it leaves its defense on the field too often. TCU ranks 95th in offensive success rate, and 127th in EPA/rush.

The way you beat BYU is by running the football. BYU ranks second in offensive success rate nationally, but its defense, especially up front, is pretty exploitable. TCU will be incapable of executing this strategy, and Bear Bachmeier will ultimately outplay Jaden Craig. 

Prediction: BYU -6.5

College Football Week 5 Best Bets

• Iowa State -3
• Georgia -25
• Rutgers +24.5
• BYU -24.5