College Football Playoff Longshots: 4 Teams That Could Surprise With CFP Berths

With the 2026 college football season now just days away, BetMGM players are running out of time to stake preseason futures bets.

I’ve been doing some final analysis of my own, evaluating the upper-tail potential for teams I think are being undervalued this season. As usual, my main summer focus is hunting for value in the College Football Playoff odds market, where roughly 9% of FBS teams will make the playoff and yield winning bets.

That’s a lot easier than correctly picking the one team that will win the national championship!

Below are four teams I’ve come around to as sleeper CFP teams. These teams are far from surefire playoff contenders, but their lucrative college football odds make them strong targets at cost.

Washington

With a win total of 7.5, Washington football odds are seen as more upper-middle class than playoff-elite this year.

There is some logic to that. Washington went 8-4 last season before winning its bowl game, and this year’s Big Ten is loaded with heavy hitters at the top. Throw in USC, which is receiving some stealth playoff hype in the run-up to this season, and it’s hard to imagine where the Huskies fit into all of this.

But Washington has two strong factors playing in its favor. The first is junior quarterback Demond Williams, one of the best returning college football quarterbacks in 2026. The dual threat passed for 3,000 yards last year and ran for another 600, potentially giving U-Dub one of the top options at quarterback in a conference that’s loaded with Heisman contenders.

The biggest advantage Washington has is its schedule, which is quite backloaded. Washington has only two road games before its Oct. 24 bye week, and one is at Purdue. The other is at USC in Week 5, which should functionally be an early CFP elimination game.

If Washington can win at USC, there’s a real chance the Huskies will enter their post-bye November stretch as an undefeated team. That positioning will be big in the final weeks, when Washington is likely to be outclassed by its final two opponents: reigning national champion Indiana (in Seattle) and rival Oregon (in Eugene).

If Washington splits those games, it’s in the playoff. But even at 0-2, a whole season of wins and good publicity could be enough to sneak the Huskies into the back of the playoff field. And at that point, with a 5-to-1 dog in your back pocket, you might end up with some hedge mobility.

Yes @ +500

Florida State

I wrote about Florida State’s 2026 sleeper status earlier this week. The Seminoles are another team whose schedule could set them up for a potential CFP run, and the 18-to-1 price tag is too lucrative to ignore.

Let’s ignore the Mike Norvell hot seat for just a moment. Florida State gets to play a warm-up game in Week 0 against overmatched New Mexico State. It gets to bring that live fire advantage into a critical ACC game against SMU, which it will host at the end of Week 1.

After that, the team will take a week off to plan for Alabama. What’s the Crimson Tide doing in the meantime? Working through its conference opener – a semi-trap game at Kentucky, which is breaking in new head coach Will Stein.

Did I mention Florida State beat Alabama last year?

Florida State gets a second SEC opportunity at the end of the year when it hosts Florida in Week 13. So this is a classic college football brand with blue-chip talent, the benefits of playing against the ACC’s soft middle and bottom, and the opportunities to play high-profile games against Miami, Florida, and Alabama.

This team could totally fall apart, and Norvell could get fired in Week 7. That’s absolutely a possibility. But what’s also a possibility is the other end of the spectrum. What if everything goes well, and Florida State finally gets a little luck to go their way?

At 18-to-1, it’s worth taking a flyer on Florida State football odds this year.

Fresno State

This is it. This is my baby.

As we know, someone from the G6 conferences is going to be in the playoff this year. It’s a protected berth. So if you’re a bettor, it’s worth firing on someone in this class of teams. And since top G6 rosters are annually plundered by the power conferences, it’s absolutely worth hunting for value a little farther down in the table.

Fresno State doesn’t have the immediate appeal of a program like Boise State. It doesn’t have the year-to-year track record that Tulane and Memphis have established in recent seasons. It doesn’t have the loud, brash success of JMU.

What Fresno does have is a winning coach, great trench play, and a new conference that’s probably going to be overrated based on historical value. With a Week 1 opportunity against USC, and a home game against Boise, Fresno has a very clear path to playoff relevance.

At 30-to-1, this is a no-brainer longshot that I’ve spent all summer telling people to bet. As I wrote earlier this month, Fresno State football odds are the single-biggest target I’ve personally had over the last two months. I’ve bet the win total, the Pac-12 odds, and the CFP odds.

Yes @ +4000

West Virginia

Don’t fall into this trap that Texas Tech is suddenly now an unbeatable, playoff-bound juggernaut. The Big 12 is topsy-turvy every season, with a different team winning its championship each of the last six seasons.

West Virginia is a little bit like Florida State in that the Mountaineers have been forgettable, and the status quo assumption is that they will continue to be irrelevant. But Rich Rodriguez has been adamant that West Virginia needed only to find a quarterback who was well-suited to run his offense, and the Eers could return to the upper echelons of the conference standings.

Is that true? Hard to say. But WVU added former Oklahoma quarterback Michael Hawkins, who appears to be the mobile quarterback that Rodriguez is searching for. The offensive line will be a team strength, and WVU never lacks for good running backs.

So I like the offense, and I like the schedule. WVU fans will dominate the neutral venue (Charlotte) against UVA in Week 3, and there’s only two true road games before the Halloween bye week.

Do I think West Virginia is going to rip off an 11-1 regular season and win the Big 12? That seems unlikely. But the Big 12 is a good place to hunt for unlikely contenders, and West Virginia football odds are worth a look. At cost, this is a big swing that could be worth taking.

College Football Playoff Longshots: Best Bet Opportunities for Value

• Washington
• Florida State +8000
• Fresno State +4000
• West Virginia +3500