Conference Most Likely to Win College Football National Championship

If you’re hearing the clamorous sounds of argument off in the distance, don’t fret – it’s probably just SEC fans yelling at Big Ten fans. Or maybe it’s the other way around.

The 2026 college football season is on the horizon, and as always, the conference wars are an unavoidable part of life as an NCAA sports fan. 

In an effort to quantify that comparison, BetMGM has created a market for sportsbook players where you can bet which conference the eventual 2026 national champion will hail from. 

Those market odds say something about which conference is best positioned to win this year – or, at the very least, which conference bettors think is best positioned to win this year. 

Which Conference Is Most Likely to Win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

According to BetMGM college football odds, the SEC is the most likely conference to win this year’s national championship.

The SEC is +135 to have the team that wins the championship this year. The Big Ten, which is responsible for the last three titles, is slightly longer at +145.

With Notre Dame football odds at +700, the ACC at +800, and the Big 12 at +900, the odds market is essentially saying that the national title is functionally a two-conference race. 

Most fans would probably concede that. It’s been eight years since a current member of the ACC won a national title (Clemson) and 36 years since a current member of the Big 12 won one (Colorado). 

Notre Dame is the top favorite this year, thanks in part to their streamlined playoff access. The Fighting Irish last won the national championship in 1988. 

SEC vs. Big Ten 

I joke about the conference wars a lot. That’s because there’s a sect of fans – and certainly a certain kind of media member – that seem to enjoy comparative conference theatrics more than actual college football. 

This year, before any football is played, 11 teams are 20-to-1 or shorter to win the title at BetMGM. Of those 11, five are in the SEC and three are in the Big Ten. (There’s also Notre Dame, Miami (FL), and Texas Tech.) That championship depth is a point in the SEC’s favor. 

However, if you limit the conversation to true top-of-market contenders, the conversation swings back in the favor of the Big Ten. Of the six teams that are 9-to-1 or shorter, half of them (Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon) are northern teams. Texas and Georgia represent the SEC.

If you’re really into this stuff, I wrote up a definitive historical review of the SEC vs. Big Ten. You know, for the good of the conference wars.

I’ve also taken the time to sort all 138 college football win totals by conference, for your geographical viewing pleasure. You can read the SEC football win totals here and the Big Ten football win totals here.