Duke vs Miami (FL) Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 21, 2022, 9:08 AM
  • (3-5) are point favorites vs (3-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
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The Duke Blue Devils (5-3) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (4-4) on Oct. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Miami Gardens.

are betting favorites in Week 8, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Duke vs. Miami (FL) is total points.

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Duke vs. Miami (FL) Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 8

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Duke
Miami (FL)

Duke vs Miami (FL) Prediction for Week 8

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 57% confidence.

Duke vs Miami (FL) Spread Prediction for Week 8

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 61% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and Miami (FL), plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Duke Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Duke players for Week 8, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Riley Leonard has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Jalon Calhoun has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+5.15 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Duke has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Duke is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Duke is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Duke is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Miami (FL) Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Miami (FL) has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Miami (FL) is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Miami (FL) is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Miami (FL) is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Duke: Keys to the Game vs. Miami (FL)

    Duke is 2-17 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .361

    Duke is 1-10 (.091) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .509

    Duke is 3-16 (.158) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .506

    Duke is 5-17 (.185) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .464

    Miami (FL): Keys to the Game vs. Duke

    Miami (FL) is winless (0-2) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .386

    Matchup Notes for Duke vs. Miami (FL)

    Miami (FL)’s TEs has gained 845 yards on 66 receptions (12.8 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — worst among ACC defenses.

    Miami (FL) have 322.6 receiving yards per game this season — second-best among ACC skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed 250.0 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

    Miami (FL)’s TEs has 30 receptions in 5 games (6.0 per game) this season — second-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed 22.3 receptions per game this season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

    Duke’s TEs has 52 receptions in 18 games (just 2.9 per game) since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among ACC TEs. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed 20.6 receptions per game since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among ACC defenses.

    Duke’s WRs has 60 receptions in 6 games (just 10.0 per game) this season — second-worst among ACC WRs. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 16.0 receptions per game this season — best among ACC defenses.

    Duke has just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — tied for second-worst among ACC skill players. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — tied for fourth-best among ACC defenses.

    Duke Offensive Stats & Trends

    Duke WRs have averaged a touchdown every 31.4 receptions (251 Rec/8 TDs) since last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8

    Duke Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 25.4 receptions (355 Rec/14 TDs) since last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

    Duke’s TEs has 52 receptions in 18 games (just 2.9 per game) since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among ACC TEs. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed 20.6 receptions per game since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among ACC defenses.

    Duke Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.8 receptions (19 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

    Duke WRs have just one touchdown on 11 receptions in the Red Zone since last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.0

    Miami (FL) Offensive Stats & Trends

    Miami (FL) TEs have 9 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

    Miami (FL)’s TEs has gained 845 yards on 66 receptions (12.8 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — worst among ACC defenses.

    Miami (FL) TEs have 9 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

    Miami (FL) have 322.6 receiving yards per game this season — second-best among ACC skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed 250.0 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

    Miami (FL)’s TEs has 30 receptions in 5 games (6.0 per game) this season — second-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed 22.3 receptions per game this season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

    Duke Blue Devils Defensive Stats & Trends

    Duke has allowed 49.9 receiving yards per game (899/18) to RBs since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 26.8

    Duke has allowed 4.1 touchdowns per interception (41 TDs allowed, and 10 INT) since last season– tied for 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.7

    Duke has allowed 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (8,511 yards / 1,042 touches) since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 6.7

    Duke has allowed 41 TD passes since last season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

    Duke has allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (10 completions/21 attempts) on 3rd and short since last season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 63%

    Miami (FL) Hurricanes Defensive Stats & Trends

    Miami (FL) has allowed 9.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (451 yards / 47 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 5.0

    Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 19% (3 completions/16 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 53%

    Miami (FL) has allowed opponents to catch just 3 of 16 passes (19% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

    Miami (FL) has allowed 9.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (451 yards / 47 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 5.1

    Miami (FL) has sacked opposing QBs on 14% of pass attempts (19/135) this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 7%


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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.