- NC State is a -3 point favorite vs. Duke
- Duke vs. North Carolina State Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
The Duke Blue Devils (6-3) visit Carter-Finley Stadium to take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack (5-4) on Nov. 9 in Raleigh, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.
NC State is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Duke vs. North Carolina State Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Duke vs. North Carolina State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
Duke | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +135 |
North Carolina State | -3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -165 |
Duke vs North Carolina State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts North Carolina State will win this game with 58.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and NC State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Duke vs North Carolina State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina State will cover the spread with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Duke Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Duke have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)
North Carolina State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- NC State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- NC State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.85 Units / 20% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Duke players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Duke Player Prop Bets Today
- Eli Pancol has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for North Carolina State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best North Carolina State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kevin Concepcion has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Grayson McCall has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Waters has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Grayson McCall has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Duke is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.75 Units / 17.86% ROI).
- Duke is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 10.05% ROI
- Duke is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
- Duke is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
NC State is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -46.23% ROI).
- North Carolina State is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3.81% ROI
- North Carolina State is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.65 Units / 26.63% ROI
- North Carolina State is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.55% ROI
Duke: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State
Duke is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .303
Duke is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .286
Duke is 5-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .590
Duke is 10-5 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .529
North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. Duke
North Carolina State is winless (0-3) when not forcing a fumble this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535
North Carolina State is 8-3 (.727) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .530
North Carolina State is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .619
North Carolina State is 10-3 (.714) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .597
Matchup Notes for Duke vs. North Carolina State
North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among P5 defenses.
North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 531 yards on 32 receptions (16.6 YPR) this season — T-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.
Duke’s TEs has 36 receptions in 21 games (just 1.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 3.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke’s TEs has 36 receptions in 21 games (just 1.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among P5 TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke Offensive Stats & Trends
Duke TEs have averaged 30.7 yards per reception (92 yards/3 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.2
Duke TEs have averaged 30.7 yards per reception (92 yards/3 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3
Duke’s TEs has 36 receptions in 21 games (just 1.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 3.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke WRs have been targeted 58 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams
North Carolina State Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among P5 defenses.
North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 531 yards on 32 receptions (16.6 YPR) this season — T-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.
North Carolina State TEs have averaged 22.0 yards per reception (154 yards/7 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.8
North Carolina State’s WRs has gained 1,368 yards on 124 receptions (just 11.0 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.
Duke Blue Devils Defensive Stats & Trends
Duke allowed 9 receptions for 20+ yards last week– T-most in FBS
Duke defense allowed 9 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-most in FBS
Duke allowed 5 TD passes last week– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
Duke defense allowed 9 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-most among Power Conference Teams
Duke has forced 15 fumbles this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina State Wolfpack Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina State sacked opposing QBs on 19% of pass attempts (3/16) last week– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
North Carolina State sacked opposing QBs on 19% of pass attempts (3/16) last week– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 7%
North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 39 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) last week– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
North Carolina State has tackled opponents for a loss on 60 of 290 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) this season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 39 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) last week– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
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