Duke vs NC State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

North Carolina State head coach Dave Doeren watched his team during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Louisville in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022.
(AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
  • NC State is a -3 point favorite vs. Duke
  • Duke vs. North Carolina State Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
  • TV Channel: ACCN

The Duke Blue Devils (6-3) visit Carter-Finley Stadium to take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack (5-4) on Nov. 9 in Raleigh, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

NC State is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Duke vs. North Carolina State Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

Bet now on NC State vs Duke & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Duke vs. North Carolina State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Duke+3 -11050.5 -110+135
North Carolina State -3 -11050.5 -110-165

Duke vs North Carolina State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts North Carolina State will win this game with 58.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and NC State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Duke vs North Carolina State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina State will cover the spread with 59.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on NC State vs Duke and all games with BetMGM


  • Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Duke have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.80 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.85 Units / 20% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Duke players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Duke Player Prop Bets Today

  • Eli Pancol has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jordan Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for North Carolina State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best North Carolina State Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Kevin Concepcion has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Grayson McCall has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jordan Waters has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Grayson McCall has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Duke is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.75 Units / 17.86% ROI).

  • Duke is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 10.05% ROI
  • Duke is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Duke is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

NC State is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -46.23% ROI).

  • North Carolina State is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3.81% ROI
  • North Carolina State is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.65 Units / 26.63% ROI
  • North Carolina State is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.55% ROI

Duke: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State

Duke is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .303

Duke is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .286

Duke is 5-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .590

Duke is 10-5 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .529

North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. Duke

North Carolina State is winless (0-3) when not forcing a fumble this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535

North Carolina State is 8-3 (.727) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .530

North Carolina State is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .619

North Carolina State is 10-3 (.714) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .597

Matchup Notes for Duke vs. North Carolina State

North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among P5 defenses.

North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 531 yards on 32 receptions (16.6 YPR) this season — T-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.

Duke’s TEs has 36 receptions in 21 games (just 1.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Duke’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 3.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Duke’s TEs has 36 receptions in 21 games (just 1.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among P5 TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Duke Offensive Stats & Trends

Duke TEs have averaged 30.7 yards per reception (92 yards/3 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.2

Duke TEs have averaged 30.7 yards per reception (92 yards/3 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

Duke’s TEs has 36 receptions in 21 games (just 1.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Duke’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 3.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Duke WRs have been targeted 58 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams

North Carolina State Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among P5 defenses.

North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 531 yards on 32 receptions (16.6 YPR) this season — T-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State TEs have averaged 22.0 yards per reception (154 yards/7 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.8

North Carolina State’s WRs has gained 1,368 yards on 124 receptions (just 11.0 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.

Duke Blue Devils Defensive Stats & Trends

Duke allowed 9 receptions for 20+ yards last week– T-most in FBS

Duke defense allowed 9 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-most in FBS

Duke allowed 5 TD passes last week– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Duke defense allowed 9 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Duke has forced 15 fumbles this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

North Carolina State Wolfpack Defensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State sacked opposing QBs on 19% of pass attempts (3/16) last week– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

North Carolina State sacked opposing QBs on 19% of pass attempts (3/16) last week– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 39 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) last week– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

North Carolina State has tackled opponents for a loss on 60 of 290 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) this season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 39 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) last week– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.


Bet now on NC State vs Duke and all games with BetMGM


More College Football Betting at BetMGM

BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.

Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State playoff odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.

Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer
About the Author

BetMGM

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.