- Liberty is a -6.5 point favorite vs. East Carolina
- East Carolina vs. Liberty Total(Over/Under): 54.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The East Carolina Pirates (2-1) visit Williams Stadium to take on the Liberty Flames (3-0) on Sep. 21 in Lynchburg, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EDT.
Liberty is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).
The East Carolina vs. Liberty Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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East Carolina vs. Liberty Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| East Carolina | +6.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +185 |
| Liberty | -6.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -225 |
East Carolina vs Liberty Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 70.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both East Carolina and Liberty, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
East Carolina vs Liberty Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts East Carolina will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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East Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- East Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- East Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- East Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- East Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- East Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Liberty Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for East Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best East Carolina Player Prop Bets Today
- Rahjai Harris has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Liberty players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Liberty Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kaidon Salter has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaidon Salter has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Billy Lucas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaidon Salter has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Treon Sibley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
East Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
East Carolina is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- East Carolina is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -2.38% ROI
- East Carolina is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- East Carolina is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Liberty is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 5.24% ROI
- Liberty is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI
- Liberty is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI
East Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty
East Carolina is 1-7 (.125) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .497
East Carolina is winless (0-8) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .391
East Carolina is winless (0-8) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .355
East Carolina is 2-9 (.182) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .407
Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. East Carolina
Liberty is undefeated (10-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .403
Liberty is undefeated (7-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .343
Liberty is undefeated (14-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .387
Liberty is 12-1 (.923) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .407
Matchup Notes for East Carolina vs. Liberty
Liberty’s RBs has rushed for 3,033 yards on 510 carries (5.9 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-13th-best among FBS RBs. East Carolina’s defense have allowed just 3.0 YPC since the 2023 season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s RBs has rushed for 579 yards on 94 carries (6.2 YPC) this season — T-31st-best among FBS RBs. East Carolina’s defense have allowed just 1.8 YPC this season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Liberty’s WRs has averaged 18.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among FBS WRs. East Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.9 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
East Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 2,834 passing yards in 15 games (just 188.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 23rd-worst among FBS teams. Liberty’s defense has allowed 244.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
East Carolina’s offense has thrown for 2,834 passing yards in 15 games (just 188.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 22nd-worst among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense has allowed 244.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
East Carolina’s WRs has just 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
East Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends
East Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 2,834 passing yards in 15 games (just 188.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 23rd-worst among FBS teams. Liberty’s defense has allowed 244.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
East Carolina Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 23.0 receptions (276 Rec/12 TDs) since the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
East Carolina’s offense has thrown for 2,834 passing yards in 15 games (just 188.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 22nd-worst among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense has allowed 244.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
East Carolina TEs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
East Carolina’s WRs has just 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends
Liberty Skill Players have averaged 21.6 yards per reception (346 yards/16 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9
Liberty Skill Players have averaged 15.9 yards per reception (3,620 yards/227 catches) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Liberty have rushed for 4,775 yards since the 2023 season– most among FBS Offenses
Liberty have rushed for 47 TDs since the 2023 season– most among FBS Offenses
Liberty Skill Players have averaged just 13.4 receptions per game (227/17) since the 2023 season– 10th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9
East Carolina Pirates Defensive Stats & Trends
East Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on 34 of 122 rushing attempts (28% TFL%) this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
East Carolina has allowed one rushing TD on 122 carries this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7
East Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on 129 of 558 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
East Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on 34 of 122 rushing attempts (28% TFL%) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
East Carolina has allowed first downs on 40% of pass attempts on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 29%
Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends
Liberty has sacked opposing QBs just once on 92 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4
Liberty has sacked opposing QBs just once on 92 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.9
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4
Liberty has sacked opposing QBs just once on 61 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: 14.8
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