Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

FILE - East Carolina head coach Mike Houston watches from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Cincinnati in Greenville, N.C., Friday, Nov. 26, 2021. East Carolina will host No. 13 North Carolina State on Saturday to open the season.
(AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker)
  • East Carolina is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Florida Atlantic
  • Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN2

The Florida Atlantic Owls (2-6) visit Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium to take on the East Carolina Pirates (4-4) on Nov. 7 in Greenville, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

East Carolina is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Florida Atlantic+7.5 -11057.5 -105+230
East Carolina -7.5 -11057.5 -115-300

Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Prediction:

The winning team model predicts East Carolina will win this game with 70.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida Atlantic and East Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida Atlantic will cover the spread with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Florida Atlantic has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Florida Atlantic has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Florida Atlantic have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Florida Atlantic has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Florida Atlantic has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 3 away games (+0.20 Units / 7% ROI)
  • East Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • East Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • East Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • East Carolina have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • East Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Florida Atlantic players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Florida Atlantic Player Prop Bets Today

  • Zuberi Mobley has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Florida Atlantic Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida Atlantic is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.45 Units / -28% ROI).

  • Florida Atlantic is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -65.81% ROI
  • Florida Atlantic is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
  • Florida Atlantic is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

East Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

East Carolina is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.75 Units / 20% ROI).

  • East Carolina is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -28.75% ROI
  • East Carolina is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.52% ROI
  • East Carolina is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.35 Units / -4% ROI

Florida Atlantic: Keys to the Game vs. East Carolina

Florida Atlantic is winless (0-12) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .270

Florida Atlantic is 3-12 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .358

Florida Atlantic is 1-6 (.143) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

Florida Atlantic is 4-8 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .537

East Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Florida Atlantic

East Carolina is winless (0-8) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .449

East Carolina is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .425

East Carolina is 3-14 (.176) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst in FBS; Average: .456

East Carolina is winless (0-8) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .403

Matchup Notes for Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina

East Carolina’s offense has averaged 2.0 passing TDs per game this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Florida Atlantic’s defense has allowed 1.9 passing TDs per game this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

East Carolina’s WRs has just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. Florida Atlantic’s defense has allowed 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.

East Carolina’s WRs has 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS WRs. Florida Atlantic’s defense has allowed 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s WRs has averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. East Carolina’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s WRs has averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. East Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.9 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic has averaged just 10.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS skill players. East Carolina’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida Atlantic’s WRs has averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. East Carolina’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s WRs has averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. East Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.9 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic Skill Players have no touchdowns on 22 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 12.5

Florida Atlantic has averaged just 10.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS skill players. East Carolina’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic WRs have just one touchdown on 50 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– 9th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

East Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

East Carolina WRs averaged a touchdown every 37.0 receptions (148 Rec/4 TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

East Carolina Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 29.7 receptions (208 Rec/7 TDs) in the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.5

East Carolina WRs have no touchdowns on 32 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

East Carolina’s offense has averaged 2.0 passing TDs per game this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Florida Atlantic’s defense has allowed 1.9 passing TDs per game this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

East Carolina’s WRs has just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. Florida Atlantic’s defense has allowed 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic Owls Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida Atlantic has not recorded a sack (31 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.5

Florida Atlantic has not recorded a sack (31 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.3

Florida Atlantic has sacked opposing QBs just once on 61 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.6

Florida Atlantic allowed 377.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last week– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 157.1

Florida Atlantic allowed 377.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last week– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 165.1

East Carolina Pirates Defensive Stats & Trends

East Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on 163 of 787 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

East Carolina has allowed first downs on 40% of pass attempts on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 28%

East Carolina has allowed first downs on 18% of rush attempts since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 23%

East Carolina has allowed first downs on 40% of pass attempts on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 29%

East Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of just 57% (147 completions/256 attempts) this season– 30th-best in FBS; Average: 61%


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