Florida Atlantic vs Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

• Florida Gators is a -26.5 point favorite vs. Florida Atlantic Owls
• Florida Atlantic vs. Florida Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
• TV Channel: SECN

Florida Atlantic (0-0) visit Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on Florida (0-0) on Sep. 5 in Gainesville, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 pm.

The Florida Gators are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -26.5 (-110).

The Florida Atlantic vs. Florida Over/Under is 59.5 total points.

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Florida Atlantic vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Florida Atlantic vs Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 76.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida Atlantic Owls and Florida Gators, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Florida Atlantic vs Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida Atlantic will cover the spread with 56.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Florida Atlantic Best Bets Today

• Florida Atlantic have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 52% ROI)
• Florida Atlantic has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
• Florida Atlantic has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.82 Units / 40% ROI)
• Florida Atlantic has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 41% ROI)
• Florida Atlantic have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)

Florida Best Bets Today

• Florida has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+4.50 Units / 2% ROI)
• Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 44% ROI)
• Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 41% ROI)

Florida Atlantic: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Florida Atlantic was winless (0-8) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Florida Atlantic was winless (0-8) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .372

Florida Atlantic was winless (0-7) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Florida Atlantic was winless (0-8) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Florida Atlantic

Florida was 8-2 (.800) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Florida was 1-2 (.333) when in a one score game last season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Florida is 3-6 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .511

Florida is 3-9 (.250) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2024 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .466

Matchup Notes for Florida Atlantic vs. Florida

Florida’s TEs had 5 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-2nd-most among SEC TEs. Florida Atlantic’s defense allowed 5 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-4th-fewest among FBS defenses.

Florida’s WRs had 148 receptions in 12 games (just 12.3 per game) last season — 4th-worst among SEC WRs. Florida Atlantic’s defense allowed just 10.8 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Florida’s TEs had 5 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-2nd-most among SEC TEs. Florida Atlantic’s defense allowed 5 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-3rd-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s RBs averaged just 5.6 yards after the catch last season — T-12th-worst among FBS RBs. Florida’s defense allowed 12.5 RAC last season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s RBs averaged just 5.6 yards after the catch last season — T-12th-worst among FBS RBs. Florida’s defense allowed 12.5 RAC last season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s WRs had 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-best among FBS WRs. Florida’s defense allowed just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida Atlantic WRs averaged 24.2 receptions per game (290/12) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4

Florida Atlantic Skill Players averaged 16.2 receptions per game (194/12) in the 2nd half last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.7

Florida Atlantic WRs averaged 11.8 receptions per game (142/12) in the 2nd half last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7

Florida Atlantic’s RBs averaged just 5.6 yards after the catch last season — T-12th-worst among FBS RBs. Florida’s defense allowed 12.5 RAC last season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Florida Atlantic WRs were targeted 123 times in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida Skill Players averaged just 8.4 yards per reception (251 yards/30 catches) on 3rd and long last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 13.2

Florida Skill Players averaged just 8.4 yards per reception (361 yards/43 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.9

Florida WRs were targeted 43 times in the 4th quarter last season– 2nd-fewest among SEC Teams

Florida Skill Players averaged just 10.5 yards per reception (2,455 yards/234 catches) last season– T-worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.1

Florida averaged just 8.4 yards per completion (361 yards/43 completions) in the 4th quarter last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.7

Florida Atlantic Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida Atlantic intercepted 3 of 370 attempts (123.3 pass attempts per int.) last season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 38.5

Florida Atlantic did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

Florida Atlantic allowed 6.7 touchdowns per interception (20 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

Florida Atlantic intercepted 3 of 370 attempts (123.3 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 37.8

Florida Atlantic allowed 9.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (394 yards / 44 touches) on 3rd and short last season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 5.0

Florida Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida defense allowed 55 completions for 20 or more yards last season– most in the SEC

Florida opponents averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Florida allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) in the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.7

Florida allowed 55 receptions for 20+ yards last season– most in the SEC

Florida allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.7

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