Florida vs Florida St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 14

min read
Florida State head coach Mike Norvell enters the field before an NCAA college football game against Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. (AP Photo/Matt Freed)
(AP Photo/Matt Freed)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2024, 2:43 PM
  • Florida is a -14.5 point favorite vs. Florida St
  • Florida vs. Florida State Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN2

The Florida Gators (6-5) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on the Florida State Seminoles (2-9) on Nov. 30 in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

Florida is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-120).

The Florida vs. Florida State Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

Bet now on Florida St vs Florida & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Florida vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Florida-14.5 -12045.5 -110-700
Florida State +14.5 +10045.5 -110+500

Florida vs Florida State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 85.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Florida St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Florida vs Florida State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida State will cover the spread with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Florida St vs Florida and all games with BetMGM


  • Florida have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Florida have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+5.60 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Florida Player Prop Bets Today

  • Elijhah Badger has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Eugene Wilson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • DJ Lagway has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Graham Mertz has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • DJ Lagway has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Florida State Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Lawrance Toafili has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Ja’Khi Douglas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Malik Benson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Roydell Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Hykeem Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).

  • Florida is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 31.03% ROI
  • Florida is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Florida is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida St is 3-7 against the spread this college football season (-4.7 Units / -42.53% ROI).

  • Florida State is 1-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.9 Units / -89.32% ROI
  • Florida State is 2-8 when betting the Over for -6.8 Units / -61.82% ROI
  • Florida State is 8-2 when betting the Under for +5.8 Units / 52.73% ROI

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State

Florida is 12-2 (.857) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 30th-best in FBS; Average: .751

Florida is 3-9 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .385

Florida is 3-9 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .435

Florida is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .724

Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Florida State is 1-8 (.111) when not forcing a fumble this season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504

Florida State is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .474

Florida State is undefeated (13-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .751

Florida State is undefeated (13-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .782

Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Florida State

Florida State’s WRs has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among ACC WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 14.2 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida State’s QBs has thrown for 2,024 passing yards in 11 games (just 184.0 YPG) this season — 21st-worst among FBS teams. Florida’s defense has allowed 244.7 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Florida State has averaged 13.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida’s RBs has averaged just 6.5 yards after the catch this season — T-33rd-worst among FBS RBs. Florida State’s defense has allowed 11.9 RAC to RBs this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida’s RBs has averaged just 6.5 yards after the catch this season — T-33rd-worst among FBS RBs. Florida State’s defense has allowed 12.0 RAC this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.

Florida’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.7% of 279 attempts this season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.3% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida WRs have averaged 19.5 yards per reception (371 yards/19 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Florida WRs have averaged 18.6 yards per reception (372 yards/20 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.9

Florida WRs have averaged 18.8 yards per reception (488 yards/26 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 14.6

Florida Skill Players have averaged 16.9 yards per reception (1,249 yards/74 catches) on 1st down this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.5

Florida Skill Players have averaged 15.9 yards per reception (398 yards/25 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 11.7

Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida State’s WRs has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among ACC WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 14.2 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida State’s QBs has thrown for 2,024 passing yards in 11 games (just 184.0 YPG) this season — 21st-worst among FBS teams. Florida’s defense has allowed 244.7 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Florida State has averaged 13.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida State’s TEs has gained 1,244 yards on 98 receptions (12.7 YPR) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Florida’s defense has allowed 13.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida State’s WRs has 240 receptions in 25 games (just 9.6 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among ACC WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed just 11.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida opponents has averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (26 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Florida opponents has averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (26 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– best in the SEC; Average: 4.5

Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (7 completions/7 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 63%

Florida opponents has averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (26 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Florida has allowed first downs on 28% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 13%

Florida State Seminoles Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida State has intercepted 3 of 302 attempts (100.7 pass attempts per int.) this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 36.2

Florida State has allowed 4.7 touchdowns per interception (14 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

Florida State has intercepted 3 of 302 attempts (100.7 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 35.0

Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%


Bet now on Florida St vs Florida and all games with BetMGM


More College Football Betting at BetMGM

BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.

Whether youโ€™re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State playoff odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.

Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.