Florida vs Florida State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 25, 2022, 10:35 AM
  • Florida State (8-3) are -9.5 point favorites vs Florida (6-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Florida Gators (6-5) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on the Florida State Seminoles (8-3) on Nov. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Tallahassee.

Florida State are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Florida vs. Florida State Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Florida vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Florida+9.5 -11057.5 -110+275
Florida State -9.5 -11057.5 -110-350

Florida vs Florida State Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Florida State will win this game with 60.4% confidence.

Florida vs Florida State Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida State will cover the spread with 68.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Florida State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Florida Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Florida players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Richardson has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 4 away games (+4.85 Units / 101% ROI)
  • Anthony Richardson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Xzavier Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Ricky Pearsall has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+1.85 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Florida State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida State players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jordan Travis has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Mycah Pittman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Jordan Travis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Johnny Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Ontaria Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Florida State have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.65 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Florida State have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida has gone 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI).

  • Florida is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.15 Units / -35.14% ROI
  • Florida is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Florida is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida State has gone 8-3 against the spread this college football season (+4.75 Units / 39.26% ROI).

  • Florida State is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 5.21% ROI
  • Florida State is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • Florida State is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State

Florida is 3-8 (.273) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 6th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495

Florida is 1-8 (.111) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– tied for 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .383

Florida is 3-8 (.200) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .368

Florida is 1-8 (.111) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .345

Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

#16 Florida State is 11-3 (.786) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2021 season– tied for 15th-best in FBS; Average: .631

#16 Florida State is 9-3 (.643) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .521

#16 Florida State is 5-3 (.556) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — tied for 12th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .432

Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Florida State

Florida’s WRs has gained 1,755 yards on 112 receptions (15.7 YPR) this season — tied for third-best among Power 5 WRs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — third-best among ACC defenses.

Florida’s QBs has rushed for 1,703 yards on 268 carries (6.4 YPC) since the 2021 season — best among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense have allowed just 3.8 YPC since the 2021 season — fifth-best among ACC defenses.

Florida’s QBs has 1,703 rushing yards since the 2021 season — second-most among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense has allowed 3,081 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fifth-fewest among ACC defenses.

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida’s WRs has gained 1,755 yards on 112 receptions (15.7 YPR) this season — tied for third-best among Power 5 WRs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — third-best among ACC defenses.

Florida WRs have averaged 22.9 yards per reception (160 yards/7 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.2

Florida Skill Players have averaged 18.9 yards per reception (227 yards/12 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.3

Florida QBs have averaged 8.5 Yards per Carry (554 yards/65 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 2.6

Florida QBs have rushed for 336 yards in close and late situations since last season– most among FBS Teams

Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends

#16 Florida State Skill Players have averaged 18.0 yards per reception (288 yards/16 catches) in close and late situations this season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

#16 Florida State RBs have averaged 6.4 Yards per Carry (1,623 yards/254 carries) in the 1st half since last season– tied for 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

#16 Florida State Skill Players have averaged 18.0 yards per reception (288 yards/16 catches) in close and late situations this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.2

#16 Florida State RBs have averaged 6.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (276 yards / 40 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– tied for 5th best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

#16 Florida State WRs have averaged 19.8 yards per reception (198 yards/10 catches) in close and late situations this season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.5

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 76% (25 completions/33 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 59%

Florida has allowed first downs on 42% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 29%

Florida has allowed first downs on 42% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– 5th worst in FBS; Average: 30%

Florida has allowed first downs on 38% of pass attempts in close and late situations since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 30%

Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 76% (25 completions/33 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 59%

Florida State Seminoles Defensive Stats & Trends

#16 Florida State has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (28/251) this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

#16 Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (2 completions/8 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 60%

#16 Florida State has allowed first downs on 46% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 30%

#16 Florida State has allowed opponents to catch 26 of 36 passes (72% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 57%

#16 Florida State has allowed 5.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,827 yards / 493 touches) this season– tied for 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 6.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.