- Florida is a -6 point favorite vs. Mississippi St
- Florida vs. Mississippi State Total(Over/Under): 58.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The Florida Gators (1-2) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2) on Sep. 21 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Florida is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).
The Florida vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 58.5 total points.
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Florida vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Florida | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -250 |
| Mississippi State | +6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +190 |
Florida vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 62.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Mississippi St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Florida vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 66.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -35.82% ROI).
- Florida is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
- Florida is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Florida is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -100% ROI
- Mississippi State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Mississippi State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Florida is 3-8 (.273) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .407
Florida is 6-12 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– T-36th-worst in FBS; Average: .511
Florida is 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .325
Florida is 2-7 (.222) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .438
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Florida
Mississippi State is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .453
Mississippi State is 2-8 (.143) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .346
Mississippi State is winless (0-8) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .355
Mississippi State is 2-7 (.222) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .497
Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.5% of 437 attempts since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.4% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State has 2.3 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-32nd-best among FBS skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 1.7 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-worst among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has averaged 16.4 yards after the catch this season — 5th-best among SEC WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.0 RAC this season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Florida’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 81 attempts this season — T-22nd-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.8% of attempts this season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida’s offense has thrown for 3,923 passing yards in 15 games (261.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 198.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida has gained 837 yards on 51 receptions (16.4 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 81 attempts this season — T-22nd-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.8% of attempts this season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida’s offense has thrown for 3,923 passing yards in 15 games (261.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 198.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida has gained 837 yards on 51 receptions (16.4 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida’s WRs has gained 697 yards on 36 receptions (19.4 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Power 5 WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida Skill Players have averaged just 10.4 yards per reception (729 yards/70 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.0
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State WRs have averaged just 11.4 yards per reception (5,351 yards/468 catches) since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.0
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged just 10.0 yards per reception (6,452 yards/642 catches) since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.6
Mississippi State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.5% of 437 attempts since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.4% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State WRs have averaged just 10.8 yards per reception (2,259 yards/210 catches) on 1st down since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.4
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged just 9.7 yards per reception (2,700 yards/279 catches) on 1st down since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 13.1
Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida has one interception and 5 TD passes allowed this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 0.9
Florida has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 22 of 411 attempts (5%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%
Florida has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 4 of 13 attempts (31%) on 3rd and long this season– best in the SEC; Average: 8%
Florida has allowed 5.8 touchdowns per interception (23 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8
Florida has intercepted 4 of 411 attempts (102.8 pass attempts per int.) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 36.4
Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 12 of 140 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.
Mississippi State has no interceptions and 23 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 9.6
Mississippi State has no interceptions (79 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 37.4
Mississippi State has no interceptions (79 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.0
Mississippi State has no interceptions and 23 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 9.5
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