- The Florida Gators are a -4 point favorite vs. the Missouri Tigers
- Florida vs. Missouri Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
- TV Channel: ABC
Florida (4-0) visit Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field to take on Missouri (3-1) on Oct. 3 in Columbia, MO. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.
The Florida Gators are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -4 (-130).
The Florida vs. Missouri Over/Under is 56.5 total points.
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Florida vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Florida | -4 -130 | 56.5 -105 | -210 |
| Missouri | +4 -102 | 56.5 -112 | +170 |
Florida vs Missouri Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 72.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Florida Gators and the Missouri Tigers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Florida vs Missouri Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida will cover the spread with 57.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Florida Best Bets Today
- Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.14 Units / 46% ROI)
- Florida have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.53 Units / 40% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 1% ROI)
Missouri Best Bets Today
- Missouri has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.00 Units / 3% ROI)
Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida Gators is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 42.99% ROI).
- Florida is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 9.36% ROI
- Florida is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 42.7% ROI
- Florida is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.25 Units / -51.72% ROI
Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Missouri Tigers is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.35 Units / -52.81% ROI).
- Missouri is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.33% ROI
- Missouri is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Missouri is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri
Florida is 2-7 (.222) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .516
Florida was 1-2 (.333) when in a one score game last season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Florida is 2-7 (.222) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .554
Florida is 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .634
Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Florida
Missouri was undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604
Missouri was 8-1 (.889) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659
Missouri was 5-1 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688
Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Missouri
Missouri has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among SEC skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 11.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Missouri’s WRs had 7 receiving touchdowns last season — 5th-fewest among Power 5 WRs. Florida’s defense allowed 13 receiving touchdowns last season — T-2nd-fewest among SEC defenses.
Missouri’s WRs has averaged just 12.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among SEC WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 11.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Florida gained 2,455 yards on 234 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) last season — T-worst among SEC skill players. Missouri’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-2nd-best among SEC defenses.
Florida’s TEs gained 402 yards on 44 receptions (just 9.1 YPR) last season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Missouri’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.
Florida gained 2,455 yards on 234 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) last season — T-18th-worst among FBS skill players. Missouri’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-2nd-best among SEC defenses.
Florida Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida RBs have averaged 12.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (177 yards / 14 touches) on 3rd down this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3
Florida rushed for 6 TDs last week– most among FBS Offenses
Florida RBs have averaged 239.5 rushing yards per game (958/4) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 135.3
Florida RBs rushed for 4 TDs last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Florida RBs have averaged 146.5 rushing yards per game (586/4) in the 2nd half this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 69.7
Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends
Missouri WRs were targeted 31 times last week– most among SEC Teams
Missouri RBs have averaged 191.0 rushing yards per game (3,247/17) since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 126.1
Missouri RBs averaged 203.8 rushing yards per game (2,649/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 123.3
Missouri TEs averaged just 7.8 yards per reception (186 yards/24 catches) with 7-10 yards to go last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.9
Missouri has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among SEC skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 11.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Florida Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida opponents averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9
Florida allowed 55 receptions for 20+ yards last season– most in the SEC
Florida defense allowed 55 completions for 20 or more yards last season– most in the SEC
Florida opponents averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0
Florida intercepted 3 of 325 attempts (108.3 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 35.7
Missouri Defensive Stats & Trends
Missouri sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone last season– most in the SEC
Missouri has allowed 10 rushing TDs on 90 carries (9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5
Missouri tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 31 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– best in the SEC; Average: 11%.
Missouri tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 31 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
Missouri allowed 6 rushing TDs on 60 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 4.7
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