Florida vs Oregon State Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: Las Vegas Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 20, 2022, 11:45 AM
  • Oregon State (9-3) are -10.5 point favorites vs Florida (6-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 51 points
  • Watch the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl game on ESPN

The Florida Gators (6-7) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Oregon State Beavers (10-3) on Dec. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30pm EST in Las Vegas.

are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at ().

The Florida vs. Oregon State Over/Under is total points.

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Florida vs. Oregon State Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Bowl Game

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Florida
Oregon State

Florida vs Oregon State Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Oregon State will win this game with 76.2% confidence.

Florida vs Oregon State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oregon State will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Oregon State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Florida Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Florida players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Xzavier Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Ricky Pearsall has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+1.85 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Oregon State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oregon State players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tre’Shaun Harrison has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Ben Gulbranson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Oregon State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 17 of their last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Oregon State have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 9 games at home (+9.15 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Oregon State have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.90 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Oregon State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Oregon State has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.15 Units / 15% ROI)

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Florida is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -38.17% ROI
  • Florida is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Florida is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Oregon State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Oregon State is 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 13.3% ROI
  • Oregon State is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Oregon State is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon State

Florida is 3-8 (.200) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– 11th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .372

Florida is 1-8 (.111) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .384

Florida is 1-8 (.111) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .345

Florida is 4-10 (.286) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .518

Oregon State: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

#16 Oregon State is undefeated (5-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .572

#16 Oregon State is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2021 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .559

#16 Oregon State is 10-3 (.769) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .561

#16 Oregon State is 4-1 (.800) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — tied for 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .376

Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Oregon State

Florida’s WRs has gained 1,903 yards on 117 receptions (16.3 YPR) this season — third-best among Power 5 WRs. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among Pac-12 defenses.

Florida has gained 2,277 yards on 162 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — third-best among Power 5 skill players. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among Pac-12 defenses.

Florida’s QBs has rushed for 594 yards on 86 carries (6.9 YPC) this season — second-best among FBS teams. Oregon State’s defense have allowed just 3.9 YPC this season — third-best among Pac-12 defenses.

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida Skill Players have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (271 yards/14 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.3

Florida WRs have averaged 24.0 yards per reception (192 yards/8 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.3

Florida’s WRs has gained 1,903 yards on 117 receptions (16.3 YPR) this season — third-best among Power 5 WRs. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among Pac-12 defenses.

Florida QBs have rushed for 345 yards in close and late situations since last season– most among FBS Teams

Florida WRs have averaged 17.6 yards per reception (793 yards/45 catches) on 1st down this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.3

Oregon State Offensive Stats & Trends

#16 Oregon State RBs have fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

#16 Oregon State WRs have averaged 21.6 yards per reception (108 yards/5 catches) on 3rd and short since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.7

#16 Oregon State Skill Players have averaged 16.8 yards per reception (134 yards/8 catches) on 3rd and short since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 9.7

#16 Oregon State WRs have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (280 yards/15 catches) in short yardage situations since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

#16 Oregon State RBs have no touchdowns on 48 receptions since last season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.1

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida has allowed first downs on 35% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14%

Florida has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 7 of 20 carries (35%) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%

Florida has allowed first downs on 35% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%

Florida has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 7 of 20 carries (35%) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 18%

Florida has allowed first downs on 44% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 29%

Oregon State Beavers Defensive Stats & Trends

#16 Oregon State has averaged a sack every 24.4 pass attempts (829 Pass Attempts/34 Sacks) since last season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.3

#16 Oregon State has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (15/399) this season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

#16 Oregon State has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (34/829) since last season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

#16 Oregon State has averaged a sack every 26.6 pass attempts (399 Pass Attempts/15 Sacks) this season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.7

#16 Oregon State has allowed 0.8 touchdowns per interception (10 TDs allowed, and 12 INT) this season– tied for 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.