Florida State vs Boston College Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

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Boston College running back Pat Garwo III (24) runs the ball for a first down during the third quarter of an NCAA college football game against Florida State on Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022, in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
(AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 16, 2023, 11:13 AM
  • Florida State is a -25.5 point favorite vs. Boston College
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Florida State Seminoles visit Alumni Stadium to take on the Boston College Eagles on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Chestnut Hill.

Florida State is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -25.5 (-110).

The Florida State vs. Boston College Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Florida State vs. Boston College Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Florida State-25.5 -11047.5 -110-3000
Boston College +25.5 -11047.5 -110+1200

Florida State vs Boston College Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Florida State will win this game with 95.0% confidence.

Florida State vs Boston College Spread Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida State will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida State and Boston College, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Florida State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Boston College has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Boston College has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Boston College have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Boston College has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Boston College have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)

Best Florida State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Florida State players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jordan Travis has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Jordan Travis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Johnny Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jordan Travis has hit the Passing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)

Best Boston College Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Boston College players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Pat Garwo III has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 60% ROI)

Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida State is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Florida State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 105% ROI
  • Florida State is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Florida State is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Boston College Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boston College is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Boston College is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -30.67% ROI
  • Boston College is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Boston College is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Boston College

#8 Florida State is 8-1 (.727) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2022 season– tied for 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .423

#8 Florida State is 8-3 (.727) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season– 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .412

#8 Florida State is 6-3 (.545) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season– 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .390

#8 Florida State is 6-2 (.600) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2022 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .365

Boston College: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State

Boston College is 2-9 (.182) when not forcing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .452

Boston College is 2-9 (.167) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .379

Boston College is 5-14 (.263) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .449

Boston College is 2-6 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .513

Matchup Notes for Florida State vs. Boston College

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 369 passing yards in 2 games (just 184.5 YPG) this season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense has allowed 270.0 passing yards per game this season — second-worst among ACC defenses.

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 369 passing yards in 2 games (just 184.5 YPG) this season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense has allowed 270.0 passing yards per game this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Boston College have just 184.5 receiving yards per game this season — worst among ACC skill players. Florida State’s defense has allowed 250.5 receiving yards per game this season — second-worst among ACC defenses.

Florida State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.5% of 458 attempts since the 2022 season — seventh-best among FBS offenses. Boston College’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 10.8% of attempts since the 2022 season — fifth-best among ACC defenses.

Florida State’s offense has thrown for 4,119 passing yards in 15 games (274.6 YPG) since the 2022 season — 24th-best among FBS offenses. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 213.0 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — third-best among ACC defenses.

Florida State’s offense has thrown for 607 passing yards in 2 games (303.5 YPG) this season — 25th-best among FBS offenses. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 152.5 passing yards per game this season — tied for 15th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.5% of 458 attempts since the 2022 season — seventh-best among FBS offenses. Boston College’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 10.8% of attempts since the 2022 season — fifth-best among ACC defenses.

Florida State’s offense has thrown for 4,119 passing yards in 15 games (274.6 YPG) since the 2022 season — 24th-best among FBS offenses. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 213.0 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — third-best among ACC defenses.

Florida State’s offense has thrown for 607 passing yards in 2 games (303.5 YPG) this season — 25th-best among FBS offenses. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 152.5 passing yards per game this season — tied for 15th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida State’s offense has thrown for 4,119 passing yards in 15 games (274.6 YPG) since the 2022 season — 24th-best among FBS offenses. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 213.0 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 25th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida State’s QBs has thrown for 4,244 passing yards in 15 games (282.9 YPG) since the 2022 season — 27th-best among FBS teams. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 213.0 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — third-best among ACC defenses.

Boston College Offensive Stats & Trends

Boston College RBs averaged just 3.2 Yards per Carry (653 yards/205 carries) in the 2022 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Boston College RBs have averaged just 3.5 Yards per Carry (963 yards/274 carries) since last season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 369 passing yards in 2 games (just 184.5 YPG) this season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense has allowed 270.0 passing yards per game this season — second-worst among ACC defenses.

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 369 passing yards in 2 games (just 184.5 YPG) this season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense has allowed 270.0 passing yards per game this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Boston College Punters have placed 68% of punts inside the 20 (15/22) since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 33%

Florida State Seminoles Defensive Stats & Trends

#3 Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 45% (31 completions/69 attempts) in the 1st half since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 62%

#3 Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 45% (31 completions/69 attempts) in the 1st half since the 2021 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 62%

#8 Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (2 completions/8 attempts) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season– tied for 3rd best in FBS; Average: 61%

#3 Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (72 completions/141 attempts) since last season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 60%

#3 Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (72 completions/141 attempts) since the 2021 season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

Boston College Eagles Defensive Stats & Trends

Boston College has no interceptions and 2 TD passes allowed since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.7

Boston College has no interceptions (76 pass attempts) since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 36.4

Boston College allowed a Completion Pct of just 12% (1 completions/8 attempts) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

Boston College has no interceptions and 2 TD passes allowed since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.7

Boston College has sacked opposing QBs just once on 76 pass attempts since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.