Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Mountain West Championship

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 01, 2022, 11:00 AM
  • Boise State (9-3) are -3 point favorites vs Fresno State (8-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 54 points
  • Watch the Mountain West Championship game on FOX

The Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4) visit Albertsons Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos (9-4) on Dec. 3. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST in Boise.

are betting favorites in Week 14, with the spread sitting at ().

The Fresno State vs. Boise State Over/Under is total points.

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Fresno State vs. Boise State Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Mountain West Championship:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Fresno State
Boise State

Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction, Mountain West Championship:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Boise State will win this game with 51.3% confidence.

Fresno State vs Boise State Spread Prediction, Mountain West Championship:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boise State will cover the spread with 71.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Fresno State and Boise State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Fresno State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Fresno State players for Week 14, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Haener has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Best Boise State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Boise State players for Week 14, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • George Holani has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the Moneyline in their last 7 games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+4.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Boise State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.15 Units / 6% ROI)

Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Fresno State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Fresno State is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.55 Units / -15.91% ROI
  • Fresno State is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.55 Units / 20.99% ROI
  • Fresno State is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.71% ROI

Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boise State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Boise State is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -7% ROI
  • Boise State is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Boise State is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State

Fresno State is 10-2 (.833) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– tied for 4th-best in FBS; Average: .446

Fresno State is 9-5 (.643) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .384

Fresno State is 15-2 (.789) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .517

Fresno State is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .494

Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State

Boise State is 15-2 (.833) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: .542

Boise State is undefeated (12-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .550

Boise State is 12-2 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season– tied for 7th-best in FBS; Average: .516

Boise State is 8-2 (.727) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .501

Matchup Notes for Fresno State vs. Boise State

Fresno State’s WRs has 240 receptions in 12 games (20.0 per game) this season — fifth-best among FBS WRs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 12.6 receptions per game this season — second-best among NonP5 defenses.

Fresno State’s WRs has 240 receptions in 12 games (20.0 per game) this season — fifth-best among FBS WRs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 12.6 receptions per game this season — second-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State has 631 receptions in 25 games (25.2 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best among FBS skill players. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 14.0 receptions per game since the 2021 season — tied for best among NonP5 defenses.

Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State WRs have been targeted 67 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams

Fresno State Skill Players have averaged 25.2 receptions per game (631/25) since last season– tied for 5th best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

Fresno State’s WRs has 240 receptions in 12 games (20.0 per game) this season — fifth-best among FBS WRs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 12.6 receptions per game this season — second-best among NonP5 defenses.

Fresno State’s WRs has 240 receptions in 12 games (20.0 per game) this season — fifth-best among FBS WRs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 12.6 receptions per game this season — second-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State has 631 receptions in 25 games (25.2 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best among FBS skill players. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 14.0 receptions per game since the 2021 season — tied for best among NonP5 defenses.

Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends

Boise State QBs have averaged 16.5 Yards per Carry (181 yards/11 carries) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 2.4

Boise State WRs have fumbled 13 times since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Boise State RBs have 10 receptions in the Red Zone this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Boise State QBs have averaged 10.1 Yards per Carry (202 yards/20 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 2.4

Boise State QBs have rushed for 181 yards in close and late situations this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Fresno State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (12 completions/31 attempts) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 63%

Fresno State has allowed opponents to catch just 39 of 93 passes (42% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (39 completions/94 attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (405 completions/767 attempts) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (405 completions/767 attempts) since last season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

Boise State Broncos Defensive Stats & Trends

Boise State has allowed a passer rating of just 81.3 in the Red Zone (63.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 163.4

Boise State opponents has averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (63 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.9

Boise State has allowed a passer rating of just 41.3 in the Red Zone (24.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 164.5

Boise State has allowed a passer rating of just 81.3 in the Red Zone (63.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 166.1

Boise State has not recorded a sack (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 15.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.