Fresno State vs Nevada Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:40 AM
  • Fresno State (6-4) are -22.5 point favorites vs Nevada (2-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS Sports Network

The Fresno State Bulldogs (7-4) visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack (2-9) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EST in Reno.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Fresno State vs. Nevada is total points.

Bet now on Nevada vs Fresno State & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Fresno State vs. Nevada Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Fresno State
Nevada

Fresno State vs Nevada Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Fresno State will win this game with 72.5% confidence.

Fresno State vs Nevada Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Fresno State will cover the spread with 80.5% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Fresno State and Nevada, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Fresno State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Fresno State players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Haener has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+6.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1H Moneyline in 1 of their last 4 games (+3.10 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 41% ROI)

Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Fresno State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Fresno State is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.55 Units / -27.85% ROI
  • Fresno State is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.65 Units / 26.63% ROI
  • Fresno State is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.55% ROI

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Nevada is 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -48.46% ROI
  • Nevada is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.08% ROI
  • Nevada is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.65 Units / 6.6% ROI

Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

Fresno State is 9-2 (.818) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — 6th-best in FBS; Average: .441

Fresno State is 13-2 (.765) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — 12th-best in FBS; Average: .515

Nevada Offensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State WRs have been targeted 55 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams

Fresno State Skill Players have averaged 25.3 receptions per game (581/23) since last season– 5th best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

Fresno State WRs have 2,891 receiving yards on 1st down since last season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

Fresno State Skill Players have caught 242 of 319 passes (76% Reception Pct) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 64%

Fresno State QBs have 58 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down since last season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

Nevada Offensive Stats & Trends

Nevada Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 40.2 receptions (161 Rec/4 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7

Nevada WRs have averaged a touchdown every 34.7 receptions (104 Rec/3 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

Nevada Skill Players have just one touchdown on 8 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Nevada Skill Players have no touchdowns on 25 receptions in close and late situations this season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0

Nevada RBs have averaged just 3.5 Yards per Carry (796 yards/227 carries) this season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Fresno State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (39 completions/91 attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (12 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 63%

Fresno State has intercepted 4 of 294 attempts (73.5 pass attempts per int.) this season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 36.7

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54% (188 completions/347 attempts) in the 1st half since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 62%

Fresno State has allowed opponents to catch just 39 of 90 passes (43% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since last season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Nevada Wolf Pack Defensive Stats & Trends

Nevada has forced 29 fumbles since last season– tied for 2nd most among Non-Power 5 Teams

Nevada has no interceptions (20 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 35.1

Nevada has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 16 of 100 attempts (16%) on 3rd and long since last season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 10%

Nevada has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 16 of 100 attempts (16%) on 3rd and long since last season– tied for 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 10%

Nevada has allowed first downs on 22% of pass attempts on 1st down since last season– tied for 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 29%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.