Fresno State vs UNLV Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 3:00 PM
  • Fresno State (5-4) are -9.5 point favorites vs UNLV (4-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS Sports Network

The Fresno State Bulldogs (7-4) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the UNLV Rebels (4-7) on Nov. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EST in Las Vegas.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Fresno State vs. UNLV is total points.

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Fresno State vs. UNLV Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Fresno State
UNLV

Fresno State vs UNLV Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Fresno State will win this game with 61.4% confidence.

Fresno State vs UNLV Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Fresno State will cover the spread with 74.5% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Fresno State and UNLV, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+6.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the Moneyline in their last 4 games (+5.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Fresno State have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.95 Units / 56% ROI)
  • UNLV have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 96% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 48% ROI)

Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Fresno State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Fresno State is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.55 Units / -31.77% ROI
  • Fresno State is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.65 Units / 18.64% ROI
  • Fresno State is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.57% ROI

UNLV Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UNLV has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • UNLV is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -14.65% ROI
  • UNLV is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • UNLV is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV

Fresno State is 13-2 (.765) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .513

Fresno State is 8-2 (.800) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — 7th-best in FBS; Average: .437

UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State

UNLV is winless (0-13) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .423

UNLV is 1-7 (.125) when in a one score game since the 2020 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .493

UNLV is 2-12 (.133) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for 13th-worst in FBS; Average: .406

UNLV is 1-16 (.059) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2020 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .289

Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State WRs have been targeted 50 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams

Fresno State WRs have caught 175 of 229 passes (76% Reception Pct) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 62%

Fresno State QBs have 55 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down since last season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

Fresno State Skill Players have 3,478 receiving yards on 1st down since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Fresno State Skill Players have averaged just 9.4 yards per reception (649 yards/69 catches) in close and late situations since last season– tied for 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0

UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV Skill Players have averaged just 4.7 yards per reception (42 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0

UNLV Skill Players have just one touchdown on 55 receptions in close and late situations since last season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

UNLV Kickers have averaged 52.9 yards per kickoff (4,336 yards/82 kickoffs) since last season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 61.4

UNLV WRs have averaged just 7.2 yards per reception (29 yards/4 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 14.6

UNLV WRs have averaged just 10.6 yards per reception (264 yards/25 catches) on 3rd and long since last season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 14.7

Fresno State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54% (359 completions/667 attempts) since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 61%

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (37 completions/88 attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

Fresno State has allowed opponents to catch just 359 of 667 passes (54% Reception Pct) since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54% (359 completions/667 attempts) since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (12 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 63%

UNLV Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV opponents has averaged 7.3 Passing Attempts per TD (22 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 5th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.8

UNLV has allowed a passer rating of just 122.7 in the Red Zone (70.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 168.1

UNLV has allowed a passer rating of just 92.5 in the Red Zone (22.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 169.0

UNLV has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (9 completions/22 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– tied for 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

UNLV has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (5 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short since last season– tied for 5th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 63%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.