Fresno State vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

• USC Trojans is a -21.5 point favorite vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
• Fresno State vs. USC Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
• TV Channel: FOX

Fresno State (0-0) visit Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on USC (1-0) on Sep. 4 in Los Angeles, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 pm.

The USC Trojans are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (-110).

The Fresno State vs. USC Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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Fresno State vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Fresno State vs USC Prediction:

The winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 76.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Fresno State Bulldogs and USC Trojans, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Fresno State vs USC Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Fresno State will cover the spread with 54.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Fresno State Best Bets Today

• Fresno State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 49% ROI)
• Fresno State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games (+8.30 Units / 115% ROI)
• Fresno State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
• Fresno State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 49% ROI)
• Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 45% ROI)

Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. USC

Fresno State was 1-4 (.200) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-13th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477

Fresno State was 2-7 (.222) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Fresno State was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Fresno State was undefeated (7-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays in the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .586

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State

USC is 13-2 (.867) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .665

USC was 2-5 (.250) when not forcing a fumble in the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

USC is 12-4 (.750) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2024 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .630

USC is 15-6 (.714) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .530

Matchup Notes for Fresno State vs. USC

USC’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 420 attempts last season — 6th-best among FBS offenses. Fresno State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts last season — 2nd-best among Pac-12 defenses.

USC’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 420 attempts last season — 6th-best among FBS offenses. Fresno State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

USC’s TEs gained 731 yards on 55 receptions (13.3 YPR) last season — best among Big Ten TEs. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Fresno State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.5% of 373 attempts last season — T-14th-worst among FBS offenses. USC’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.1% of attempts last season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Fresno State’s WRs gained 1,437 yards on 128 receptions (just 11.2 YPR) last season — T-14th-worst among FBS WRs. USC’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.5% of 373 attempts last season — T-14th-worst among FBS offenses. USC’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.1% of attempts last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.5% of 373 attempts last season — T-14th-worst among FBS offenses. USC’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.1% of attempts last season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Fresno State’s WRs gained 1,437 yards on 128 receptions (just 11.2 YPR) last season — T-14th-worst among FBS WRs. USC’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.5% of 373 attempts last season — T-14th-worst among FBS offenses. USC’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.1% of attempts last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State gained 2,384 yards on 239 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) last season — T-7th-worst among FBS skill players. USC’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State’s TEs gained 495 yards on 45 receptions (11.0 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Pac-12 TEs. USC’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

USC TEs averaged 17.4 yards per reception (365 yards/21 catches) on 1st down last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.0

USC’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 420 attempts last season — 6th-best among FBS offenses. Fresno State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts last season — 2nd-best among Pac-12 defenses.

USC’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 420 attempts last season — 6th-best among FBS offenses. Fresno State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

USC’s TEs gained 731 yards on 55 receptions (13.3 YPR) last season — best among Big Ten TEs. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

USC’s WRs gained 2,759 yards on 185 receptions (14.9 YPR) last season — T-16th-best among FBS WRs. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State Defensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State had no interceptions and 13 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 8.0

Fresno State had 20 interceptions last season– 5th-most in FBS

Fresno State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (20 completions/26 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Fresno State allowed 6 TD passes in close and late situations last season– T-most in FBS

Fresno State allowed 153.8 Passing Yards per game (1,999/13) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 217.1

USC Defensive Stats & Trends

USC tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 68 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

USC allowed 4.4 touchdowns per interception (31 TDs allowed, and 7 INT) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.7

USC has at least one sack in each of their last 13 games — this is the longest active Big Ten streak.

USC sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts (21/436) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

USC had no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1

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