Georgia vs Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 3

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Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops reacts on the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Louisville in Lexington, Ky., Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Clubb)
(AP Photo/Michael Clubb)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 12, 2024, 11:25 AM
  • Georgia is a -24 point favorite vs. Kentucky
  • Georgia vs. Kentucky Total(Over/Under): 45.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

The Georgia Bulldogs (2-0) visit Kroger Field to take on the Kentucky Wildcats (1-1) on Sep. 14 in Lexington, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Georgia is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -24 (-110).

The Georgia vs. Kentucky Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Georgia vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Georgia-24 -11045.5 -115-5000
Kentucky +24 -11045.5 -105+1500

Georgia vs Kentucky Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Georgia will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Georgia and Kentucky, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Georgia vs Kentucky Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Georgia has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+8.80 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.35 Units / 6% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+0.90 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Kentucky have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Georgia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Georgia Player Prop Bets Today

  • Carson Beck has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 away games (+2.45 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Dominic Lovett has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Carson Beck has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+2.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Arian Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Dillon Bell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kentucky Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Barion Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)

Georgia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.15 Units / -6.67% ROI).

  • Georgia is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 21.98% ROI
  • Georgia is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Georgia is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kentucky is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Kentucky is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -7.69% ROI
  • Kentucky is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Kentucky is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Georgia: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky

Georgia is undefeated (8-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .390

Georgia is undefeated (15-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: .395

Georgia is undefeated (6-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .382

Georgia is undefeated (13-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .376

Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia

Kentucky is 1-7 (.125) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .389

Kentucky is 3-10 (.231) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2022 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .395

Kentucky is 6-4 (.600) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .438

Kentucky is 1-5 (.167) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .394

Matchup Notes for Georgia vs. Kentucky

Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 213 passing yards in 2 games (just 106.5 YPG) this season — 5th-worst among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 80.0 passing yards per game this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 35 attempts this season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.7% of attempts this season — 7th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kentucky have just 106.5 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-worst among FBS skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 80.0 receiving yards per game this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 70 attempts this season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 20.0% of attempts this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia has 51 receptions in 2 games (25.5 per game) this season — T-17th-best among FBS skill players. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 12.5 receptions per game this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia’s RBs has rushed for 262 yards on 40 carries (6.6 YPC) this season — 29th-best among FBS RBs. Kentucky’s defense have allowed just 2.8 YPC to RBs this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia TEs have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Georgia TEs have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Georgia TEs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Georgia’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 70 attempts this season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 20.0% of attempts this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia TEs have been targeted 255 times since the 2022 season– most among SEC Teams

Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky TEs have averaged 24.8 yards per reception (124 yards/5 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.8

Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 213 passing yards in 2 games (just 106.5 YPG) this season — 5th-worst among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 80.0 passing yards per game this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky TEs have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (579 yards/31 catches) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Kentucky TEs have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (579 yards/31 catches) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7

Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 35 attempts this season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.7% of attempts this season — 7th-worst among FBS defenses.

Georgia Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 35 of 461 attempts (8%) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 10%

Georgia has allowed opponents to catch just 30 of 74 passes (41% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 55%

Georgia opponents has averaged 35.5 Passing Attempts per TD (461 Pass Attempts/13 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 22.5

Georgia opponents has averaged 34.3 Passing Attempts per TD (960 Pass Attempts/28 Passing TDs) since the 2022 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 20.4

Georgia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (62 completions/146 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– best in the SEC; Average: 54%

Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 7 of 35 attempts (20%) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 7%

Kentucky has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 3 of 10 attempts (30%) on 3rd and long this season– best in the SEC; Average: 8%

Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on 14 of 46 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 17%.

Kentucky has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 7 of 35 attempts (20%) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

Kentucky has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 7 of 35 attempts (20%) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 9%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.