Georgia vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:30 PM
  • Georgia (9-0) are -16.5 point favorites vs Mississippi State (6-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Georgia Bulldogs (11-0) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-4) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Starkville.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Georgia vs. Mississippi State is total points.

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Georgia vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Georgia
Mississippi State

Georgia vs Mississippi State Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Georgia will win this game with 74.6% confidence.

Georgia vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 74.5% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Georgia and Mississippi State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Georgia Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Georgia players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ladd McConkey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Stetson Bennett has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Stetson Bennett has hit the Passing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Stetson Bennett has hit the TD Passes Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Mississippi State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Mississippi State players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jaden Walley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Dillon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jo’quavious Marks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Caleb Ducking has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 14 games (+10.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Georgia have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Georgia have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.17 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Mississippi State have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 24% ROI)

Georgia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Georgia is 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 8.09% ROI
  • Georgia is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
  • Georgia is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Mississippi State is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 9.85% ROI
  • Mississippi State is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
  • Mississippi State is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

Georgia: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

#1 Georgia is undefeated (9-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .417

#1 Georgia is 16-1 (.800) when passing for more than 200 yards — best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .405

#1 Georgia is 17-1 (.850) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .430

#1 Georgia is undefeated (10-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — best in FBS; Average: .420

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia

#23 Mississippi State is 1-4 (.143) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– 9th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .386

#24 Mississippi State is undefeated (2-0) when rushing more than 30 times — tied for 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447

#24 Mississippi State is 3-1 (.600) when rushing for more than 100 yards — tied for 12th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .450

#24 Mississippi State is 6-4 (.600) when not losing a fumble — tied for 12th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .443

Matchup Notes for Georgia vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State has gained 2,500 yards on 261 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) this season — tied for third-worst among FBS skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Mississippi State has gained 7,422 yards on 779 receptions (just 9.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — worst among FBS skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — best among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State has gained 2,500 yards on 261 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) this season — tied for worst among Power 5 skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — best among SEC defenses.

Georgia’s TEs has 53 receptions in 8 games (6.6 per game) this season — second-best among P5 TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 1.5 receptions per game to TEs this season — tied for third-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia’s TEs have 89.0 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — third-best among FBS TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 15.4 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2021 season — best among FBS defenses.

Georgia’s TEs has 53 receptions in 8 games (6.6 per game) this season — second-best among FBS TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 1.5 receptions per game to TEs this season — tied for third-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia Offensive Stats & Trends

#1 Georgia TEs have 38 receptions for 20 or more yards since last season– most among FBS Teams

#1 Georgia TEs have 16 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among Power 5 Teams

#1 Georgia TEs have 16 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams

#1 Georgia TEs have picked up first downs on 19 receptions on 1st down this season– most among FBS Teams

#1 Georgia TEs have been targeted 6.8 times per game (54/8) in the 1st half this season– 2nd highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.8

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 37.1 receptions per game (779/21) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.8

Mississippi State WRs have averaged 25.8 receptions per game (541/21) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.1

Mississippi State Skill Players have been targeted 51.0 times per game (1,072/21) since last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.9

Mississippi State WRs have averaged 25.8 receptions per game (541/21) since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0

Mississippi State has gained 2,500 yards on 261 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) this season — tied for third-worst among FBS skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Georgia Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

#1 Georgia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 24% (16 completions/66 attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

#1 Georgia has allowed a passer rating of just 71.2 in the Red Zone (66.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 160.9

#1 Georgia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 24% (16 completions/66 attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 53%

#1 Georgia has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 65 carries (13 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.8

#1 Georgia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 22% (4 completions/18 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 16% of PATs this season– 5th highest in FBS; Average: 6%

Mississippi State has allowed 7.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (494 yards / 63 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 5.1

Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 12 of 39 carries (31%) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 17%

Mississippi State has allowed 7.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (494 yards / 63 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 5.0

Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 12 of 39 carries (31%) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.