Georgia State vs James Madison Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

James Madison wide receiver Taji Hudson (19) catches a ball during warmups before an NCAA college football game against Georgia State, Saturday, Nov. 4 2023, in Atlanta, Ga. (AP Photo/Hakim Wright Sr.)
(AP Photo/Hakim Wright Sr.)
  • James Madison is a -16.5 point favorite vs. Georgia State
  • Georgia State vs. James Madison Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

The Georgia State Panthers (2-6) visit Showker Field at Bridgeforth Stadium to take on the James Madison Dukes (6-2) on Nov. 9 in Harrisonburg, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

James Madison is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -16.5 (-110).

The Georgia State vs. James Madison Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

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Georgia State vs. James Madison Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Georgia State+16.5 -11054.5 -110+550
James Madison -16.5 -11054.5 -110-800

Georgia State vs James Madison Prediction:

The winning team model predicts James Madison will win this game with 88.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Georgia State and James Madison, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Georgia State vs James Madison Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts James Madison will cover the spread with 61.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Georgia State have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Georgia State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Georgia State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Georgia State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Georgia State has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
  • James Madison has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • James Madison has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • James Madison has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • James Madison has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+1.10 Units / 3% ROI)
  • James Madison has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+0.10 Units / 0% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Georgia State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Georgia State Player Prop Bets Today

  • Freddie Brock has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Dorian Fleming has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Ted Hurst has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for James Madison players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best James Madison Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Taylor Thompson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Alonza Barnett III has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Omarion Dollison has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Georgia State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia State is 2-5 against the spread this college football season (-3.5 Units / -39.77% ROI).

  • Georgia State is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -53.75% ROI
  • Georgia State is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 7.95% ROI
  • Georgia State is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI

James Madison Against the Spread (ATS) Record

James Madison is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • James Madison is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -5.3% ROI
  • James Madison is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
  • James Madison is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

Georgia State: Keys to the Game vs. James Madison

Georgia State is 1-7 (.125) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .386

Georgia State is 6-12 (.333) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .425

Georgia State is 1-12 (.077) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .456

Georgia State is 5-10 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .538

James Madison: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia State

James Madison is undefeated (6-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .486

James Madison is undefeated (7-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .560

James Madison is 7-3 (.700) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .382

James Madison is 11-2 (.846) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400

Matchup Notes for Georgia State vs. James Madison

James Madison has averaged 12.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 12.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

James Madison’s offense has thrown for 5,528 passing yards in 21 games (263.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 251.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 14th-worst among FBS defenses.

James Madison has gained 5,512 yards on 428 receptions (12.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS skill players. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Georgia State has averaged just 10.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-14th-worst among FBS skill players. James Madison’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State’s WRs has averaged just 11.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 16th-worst among FBS WRs. James Madison’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.6% of 671 attempts since the 2023 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS offenses. James Madison’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.8% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State has averaged just 10.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-14th-worst among FBS skill players. James Madison’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State’s WRs has averaged just 11.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 16th-worst among FBS WRs. James Madison’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State RBs have been targeted 5.8 times per game (46/8) in the 2nd half this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

Georgia State RBs have been targeted 9.1 times per game (73/8) this season– T-2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Georgia State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.6% of 671 attempts since the 2023 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS offenses. James Madison’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.8% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

James Madison Offensive Stats & Trends

James Madison has averaged 12.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 12.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

James Madison’s offense has thrown for 5,528 passing yards in 21 games (263.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 251.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 14th-worst among FBS defenses.

James Madison TEs have averaged 22.4 yards per reception (157 yards/7 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.2

James Madison has gained 5,512 yards on 428 receptions (12.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS skill players. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

James Madison’s RBs has averaged 9.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-17th-best among FBS RBs. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 12.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Georgia State Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 89% (25 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 62%

Georgia State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 21 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Georgia State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 34 of 307 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– 14th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 89% (25 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Georgia State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 21 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

James Madison Dukes Defensive Stats & Trends

James Madison has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 19 rushing attempts (37% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.

James Madison has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 19 rushing attempts (37% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

James Madison has averaged 2.00 interceptions per game (16/8) this season– best in FBS; Average: 0.85

James Madison has averaged 3.2 sacks per game since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

James Madison has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (14 completions/39 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– best in FBS; Average: 60%


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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.