Heisman Trophy Odds & Betting Favorites For 2025

The Heisman Trophy odds market is building to a crescendo. 

With about a month left in the regular season and the initial College Football Playoff rankings coming out Tuesday, this mega-popular college football odds market is reaching maturity with a handful of primary contenders.

I monitor the Heisman Trophy odds daily throughout the season, providing ongoing updates and analysis in this comprehensive blog article. 

If you’re as obsessed with college football as I am, you’ll want to bookmark this page and visit regularly.    

Let’s break it down.

Heisman Trophy Odds

Heisman Trophy Prediction 2025

Based on the current futures market, Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza each have an implied 36.4% chance to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy.

Heisman Watch 2025: Week 12

After Saturday, Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin were both priced at +175 at BetMGM, with Simpson adjusted up to +550 and Marcel Reed holding steady in the +750 range. 

The market subtext that most bettors will pick up on is that the race may come down to who wins the Big Ten. Most fans are expecting Indiana and Ohio State to face off in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

But less simple outcomes are still in play. Simpson, for example, could dominate Reed in the SEC title game, while Indiana and Ohio State play through a defensive slugfest. Would voters reward Simpson for the offensive performance?

What if Sayin and the Buckeyes lose to Michigan one week before the championship game? What if Indiana stumbles late and misses out on the title game altogether, denying Sayin a head-to-head battle for the Heisman and a quality win? 

The value in the market is still tied to the SEC quarterbacks. But the market may increasingly view the Big Ten championship as a battle for the Heisman and the No. 1 seed in the playoff. 

Whether or not the Heisman voters feel similarly is another matter.

New straw poll from @TheAthletic. Sayin obviously moving toward the top, as you would expect. But he’s still roughly even with Ty Simpson in these results.

Yet in the last 72 hours, Sayin’s price has continued to drop. He’s even closer to odds-on favorite status now. Yikes! A… pic.twitter.com/kMP0AAjHHk

— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) November 6, 2025

Heisman Odds: Julian Sayin

Julian Sayin, the Ohio State quarterback, is currently +175 to win the Heisman Trophy. 

Sayin has operated the Ohio State offense with ruthless efficiency this season, passing for 2,491 yards and 24 touchdowns through Week 11. His 91.1 QBR leads FBS. He’s had at least 300 yards in six of his last eight games.

No doubt, Sayin has been impressive. As my friend Tyler Shoemaker points out, that’s particularly true when accounting for Ohio State’s slower pace of play. The Buckeyes run one of the slowest offenses of any power conference team, yet Sayin’s counting stats are better than most. 

But there’s also the other half of the equation to consider: Sayin’s supporting cast is insane. Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith are the backbone of what is easily the best receiver group in college football, not to mention the ridiculous defense that constantly gives the ball back to Sayin.

As the season enters its final weeks, will voters reward the quarterback of the No. 1 team? Or will they prefer a quarterback who’s done more with less? So far, straw polls and other anecdotal data seem to lean toward the latter, which makes Sayin a contending quarterback available for a top-of-market price. The value in the Heisman market is elsewhere. 

Julian Sayin @ +175

One of my concerns handicapping Sayin is that his team is too stacked for credit to accrue to him in enough volume that he could win the award. good example here

— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) November 8, 2025

Heisman Odds: Fernando Mendoza

Fernando Mendoza, the Indiana quarterback, is currently +175 to win the Heisman Trophy. 

Mendoza has helped make Indiana – the Hoosiers! – a bona fide national championship contender. His offensive mastery, paired with head coach Curt Cignetti’s eye for talent and program leadership, has turned a basketball blue blood into a football juggernaut.

Mendoza is a junior who transferred over from Cal. So far this season, he’s got 2,124 passing yards and 29 total touchdowns to just four interceptions. Indiana is on track to play in the Big Ten Championship Game as long as it keeps winning.

Mendoza made his strongest case for the Heisman in Week 7, when he executed Indiana’s offense to perfection at Oregon. The Hoosiers scored arguably their biggest win in program history, downing the Ducks after College GameDay went to Eugene.

Mendoza’s most controversial moment came in Week 11 at Penn State, when he kept Indiana’s dream season afloat with a game-winning touchdown pass to Omar Cooper in the final seconds. 

Did Mendoza deserve Heisman credit for engineering such an outcome, with the Hoosiers missing multiple starters on offense? Or were fans holding Mendoza to a different standard than Sayin, who easily racked up 316 yards and four touchdowns in a rout of the Nittany Lions? 

Your answer could depend on how much credence you lend toward the idea of the mythical “Heisman Moment,” which Mendoza certainly achieved with such a brilliant ending. 

Either way, Mendoza’s Heisman candidacy likely comes down to how he plays in a likely Big Ten title game against Ohio State. If the market feels like the winner of the Big Ten championship is the rightful Heisman winner, Week 11 results at Happy Valley won’t matter.

Fernando Mendoza @ +175  

Heisman Odds: Ty Simpson

Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback, is currently +550 to win the Heisman Trophy. 

Since SEC play started, Simpson has been arguably the best quarterback in college football. Alabama remains undefeated against conference opponents and is in position to play for the SEC title and earn a College Football Playoff berth.

Bettors keep waiting for Simpson and Alabama to stumble, but it just hasn’t happened yet. 

The sharp side of the market has seen enough. Simpson only represented 3.1% of all tickets at BetMGM as of Oct. 27, but his handle share had risen to a whopping 16.6% – considerably larger than any other player. 

Simpson took a slight adjustment up after a so-so game against LSU in Week 11, and the market is increasingly viewing the two Big Ten quarterbacks as the top Heisman contenders. But in my opinion, that’s quite dismissive of Simpson, who’s played a far more challenging schedule than either Ohio State or Indiana. 

If Alabama wins out, Simpson will merit real consideration for the award. He’s the best value in the market right now. 

Ty Simpson @ +550

Heisman Odds: Marcel Reed

Marcel Reed, the Texas A&M quarterback, is currently +750 to win the Heisman Trophy. 

Reed is finally getting some love in the Heisman market, moving into the No. 4 spot in the table. This isn’t rocket science. He’s the quarterback of a popular SEC team that’s still undefeated in November.

But BetMGM players aren’t taking Reed seriously from a betting standpoint, as the undefeated Aggie accounts for only 1.2% of tickets in the market as of Nov. 3. That lack of appetite lines up with straw polls, too, where Athletic voters had him barely inside the top 10 and trailing at least one defensive player.

At a glance, this price makes sense for Reed. But if the straw polls reflect the overall feeling of voters, Reed should be far longer than +750 to reflect his true odds.

Marcel Reed @ +750

Heisman Odds: Jeremiah Smith

Jeremiah Smith, the Ohio State wide receiver, is currently +2500 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Smith has been the No. 1 most popular Heisman ticket among BetMGM players, accounting for 7.7% of tickets as of Nov. 3.

But with high-profile quarterbacks dominating the Heisman landscape this year – especially as the season has matured – Smith has a very minimal chance to win the award. His +4000 price from last week probably made more sense for bettors, given the market dynamics in play.

Jeremiah Smith @ +2500

Heisman Odds: Gunner Stockton

Gunner Stockton, the Georgia quarterback, is currently +3000 to win the Heisman Trophy. 

The Bulldogs’ dual-threat quarterback now has five games this season where he’s accounted for at least three touchdowns. That includes Georgia’s Week 11 win at Mississippi State. His QBR remains No. 3 in FBS.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that it’s hard to imagine a good-not-great quarterback like Stockton jumping guys at the top of the market in the coming weeks. 

Stockton can do what Georgia requires, but he’s probably not outstanding. For him to be a top-level Heisman contender, he’ll need to go up another level. Even if he does, he’s running out of time to close the gap this season. 

At this point, he might be a better name to sit on for 2026.

Gunner Stockton @ +3000

Heisman Odds: Diego Pavia

Diego Pavia, the Vanderbilt quarterback, is currently +2500 to win the Heisman Trophy. 

Pavia is a scrappy playmaker who’s made a name for himself the hard way, grinding out wins at nontraditional winners like Vandy and New Mexico State. It’s one reason why he’s so well-loved by college football fans.

Undeniably, Pavia’s late-arriving Heisman campaign does have two things going for him. One is a great, old-fashioned success story. Narratives are powerful things in award markets. 

The other is line movement toward the top of the market. Pavia was 40-to-1 just a couple of weeks ago. 

At BetMGM, Pavia accumulated 3.1% of all Heisman bets as of Nov. 3. 

Diego Pavia @ +2500

Heisman Odds: Trinidad Chambliss

Trinidad Chambliss, the Ole Miss quarterback, is currently +10000 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Chambliss played arguably the best game of his college career at Oklahoma in Week 9, connecting on repeated deep shots in a game where he finished with 315 passing yards and a touchdown, in addition to 53 yards on the ground. 

Ole Miss looks as though it could be 10-1 heading into its Week 14 rivalry game in the Egg Bowl at Mississippi State. Hypothetically, the Rebels could run the table, catch a break elsewhere in the conference, and sneak into the SEC title game against either Alabama or Texas A&M.

Is it likely? Probably not. But that’s probably what Ole Miss would need for Chambliss to break through to the very top of the Heisman contention list. Even then, he’d have to beat out names from other conferences, like Mendoza, who are already seen as primary contenders.

Perhaps Ole Miss’ football odds in the SEC futures market are a stronger option here.

Trinidad Chambliss @ +10000

Heisman Odds: Dante Moore

Dante Moore, the Oregon quarterback, is currently +25000 to win the Heisman Trophy. 

After the Ducks won at Penn State in double overtime, Moore immediately became the new Heisman favorite. 

But Moore and Oregon both came crashing back to earth in Week 7. Not only did Moore play a bad game in the loss to Indiana – 186 passing yards, -27 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT – but Oregon’s signature win at Penn State is officially a bust. The Nittany Lions are still winless in conference play.

Oregon could very well finish the season at 11-1. But Mendoza’s head-to-head win appears to have shifted him ahead of Moore in the Heisman race, and Moore probably won’t have many more high-profile opportunities to make up that ground.

Dante Moore @ +25000

Heisman Odds: Jeremiyah Love

Jeremiyah Love, the Notre Dame running back, is currently +4000 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Love is a powerful weapon for Notre Dame, pacing the Irish offense while running behind another good South Bend offensive line.

Perhaps because of Ashton Jeanty’s memorable 2024 season, the Heisman betting public has cued in on Love. Despite his longer odds, he’s currently the No. 6 most popular Heisman ticket at BetMGM with roughly 5% of all tickets.

Jeremiyah Love @ +4000

Heisman Odds: Haynes King

Haynes King, the Georgia Tech quarterback, is currently +10000 to win the Heisman Trophy.

King is getting market respect here because the Yellow Jackets are on track to play in the College Football Playoff. That’s an immense accomplishment for King, head coach Brent Key, and the entire Georgia Tech program.

But the Heisman is for outstanding players, and King is merely very good. He has accounted for nine passing touchdowns after Week 11. He’s probably not going to win the Heisman.

Haynes King @ +10000

Heisman Odds: CJ Carr

CJ Carr, the Notre Dame quarterback, is currently +20000 to win the Heisman Trophy. 

Carr has been a proficient operator of the Notre Dame offense, showing a lot of poise and intelligence as a freshman. His 80.2 QBR is a top-20 number, and the Irish offense is trending up after an imperfect start to the season.

But Carr is a flawed Heisman candidate, at least in 2025. For one thing, Notre Dame has already played and lost to its toughest opponents, leaving Carr with fewer options to make up ground against the leading candidates.

There’s also the visibility problem. Carr is not a quarterback who’s getting much publicity. The most popular offensive player on his team is running back Jeremiyah Love. Carr accrues less credit for Notre Dame’s success, which at least partially explains why his ticket share is less than 1% of the overall Heisman market.

Frankly, I don’t understand why Carr is priced at 60-to-1. In my opinion, he should be more of a total longshot. If the season ended today, who would even vote him as a Heisman finalist?

CJ Carr @ +20000

Heisman Odds: John Mateer

John Mateer, the Oklahoma quarterback, is currently +15000 to win the Heisman Trophy. 

At one point, Mateer was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, but a broken bone in his throwing hand sidetracked him for a few weeks. He fell into midrange territory.

Mateer was heroic in returning to the field after a mere 17-day rehab, but he didn’t look 100% in the Sooners’ loss to Texas. And with Oklahoma now dropping a second conference game to Ole Miss, any Heisman juice that Mateer may have still had is now accruing to Chambliss. Mateer’s Heisman run is effectively over.

John Mateer @ +15000

Heisman Odds: Joey Aguilar

Joey Aguilar, the Tennessee quarterback, is currently +25000 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Aguilar has been effective as the quarterback of the Vols this season. But as the calendar rolls into November, he’s just another guy in shotgun in a conference loaded with good quarterbacks.

Joey Aguilar @ +25000

Heisman Odds: Arch Manning

Arch Manning, the Texas quarterback, is currently +25000 to win the Heisman Trophy.

The nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning had a lot of hype coming into the 2025 season. Quinn Ewers is no longer playing college football, and the Texas offense was Manning’s to wield, for better or worse.

After the Week 1 showdown in Columbus against Ohio State, everything felt worse. Arch was so hyped that it was obvious expectations would be a problem. But even grading against a curve, Texas’ offense looked pretty bad during its season opener. Manning was ultimately adjusted up to +1600 in the Heisman market following his first 2025 game. 

His fall down the table has continued as the season wears on. Manning just hasn’t lived up to the incredible preseason hype – or his spot play from 2024, for that matter.

That’s tough news for BetMGM players, who heavily bought Manning as a Heisman candidate through the summer and early weeks of the season. Even with the season now in November, he still accounts for about 6% of all Heisman tickets at BetMGM. 

Arch Manning @ +25000

Previous Heisman Trophy Winners