Heisman Trophy Odds & Betting Favorites For 2026

Welcome to the 2026 college football season.

With college football now just days away, it’s time to get serious about the major teams and storylines of the coming fall season. 

For me, that means a deep and daily dive into one of my favorite college football odds markets: the Heisman Trophy odds.

Here, I take readers deep into the weeds on individual players, stats, and pathways to the award. And thanks to my connection to BetMGM, I’m able to offer special insights into betting activity, like ticket count and handle growth, that many other analysts can’t easily access. 

Read on for a name-by-name look at the developing market for college football’s top award.

Heisman Trophy Odds 2026

Heisman Watch 2026: Preseason 

At BetMGM, the two players who have maintained an early Heisman ticket share of at least 9% as of Aug. 24 are Julian Sayin, CJ Carr, and Arch Manning.

It’s interesting how different these three players are, at least in terms of how they occupy college football’s offseason imagination.

Manning is practically football royalty, but he also burned early Heisman bettors last year when he took over in Austin for the departing Quinn Ewers.

Sayin was a real contender for college football’s top award last year. Many analysts considered him the 2025 favorite as late as the week of the Big Ten Championship Game.

Carr, a sophomore, has much less national profile and plays in a system that’s not friendly to big quarterback stats. But NFL analysts believe Carr might be a future No. 1 overall pick, which has given him some quiet legitimacy in the awards market. (Notre Dame’s easy schedule doesn’t hurt, either.)

I have more analysis for these three players and several other top-end 2026 Heisman contenders in the paragraphs that follow.

Heisman Odds: CJ Carr

CJ Carr, the Notre Dame quarterback, is currently +700 to win the Heisman Trophy.

The early 2026 Heisman favorite may surprise some college football fans, as Carr wasn’t even the most popular Heisman ticket on his own team last year.

But Carr, a true freshman in 2025, was highly efficient in operating the Irish offense throughout last season. He’ll be poised to do so again this year. 

Carr’s preseason market position is in line with Notre Dame’s team futures. The Irish have a schedule of mostly bottom-feeders and G6 programs, which virtually everyone expects will leave the Irish with a lofty record at the end of November. 

If you’re bullish on Carr’s Heisman chances, part of the handicap is that the quarterback of an 11 or 12-win Notre Dame team will automatically be in the mix to win the award – regardless of whether or not the requisite stats or memorable moments ever materialized. 

Heisman Odds: Arch Manning

Arch Manning, the Texas quarterback, is currently +850 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Manning had insanely high expectations ahead of his 2025 debut as the full-time starter for Texas. He disappointed most college football fans with his lukewarm play throughout 2025, but he was a victim of his own last name more than anything else.

Heisman bettors were big on Manning in the early portions of the 2025 season. That’s especially true at BetMGM, where Manning continued to be the most popular Heisman ticket deep into October, when it was clear he wasn’t going to win any major awards.

Apparently, bettors aren’t afraid to go back to the well with Manning. As of Aug. 24, he leads all Heisman contenders at BetMGM with 11.7% of the ticket share and 15.8% of all handle. 

Heisman Odds: Dante Moore

Dante Moore, the Oregon quarterback, is currently +1100 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Oregon’s adept dual-threat quarterback returned to Eugene for 2026 rather than enter the 2026 NFL Draft.

That’s good news for Ducks fans, who now stand an excellent chance to watch their team in the College Football Playoff for a third straight year.

As far as the Heisman market goes, this price may be a little optimistic for Moore. Oregon quarterbacks have piled up major stats and CFP exposure over the past several years, and they’ve typically been prominent Heisman betting targets as a result. But overall, the Oregon quarterback sample has shown higher floors but capped ceilings, which makes it tough to buy a known commodity like Moore at such a short preseason price.

Heisman Odds: Julian Sayin

Julian Sayin, the Ohio State quarterback, is currently +1400 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Sayin spent time as the Heisman favorite in November 2025 and was the clear choice of some analysts all the way up until the Big Ten championship game. In the context of Ohio State’s slow pace of play, his raw counting stats upgraded from good to great.

The problem with Sayin – which I identified early – was that Ohio State was a reigning national champion beating up on a bunch of mediocre conference opponents. When Sayin finally faced real pressure in games against Michigan and Indiana, he looked like the good-not-great freshman quarterback with lots of growth left in front of him.

Sayin is one of the deepest handicaps available in this offseason Heisman market because there’s a lot of ways to read his profile from here. How much of a narrative bump was he really getting with last year’s team? How does his play change with the OC move from Brian Hartline to Arthur Smith? What kind of leap does he take from freshman to sophomore? How much does Carnell Tate’s departure matter?

Depending on your answers to those questions, Sayin could be a great preseason buy with a winning ceiling.

Heisman Odds: Darian Mensah

Darian Mensah, the Miami (FL) quarterback, is currently +1100 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Were the Hurricanes a moment or a movement? As Miami looked to reload following its run to the national title game, it snagged Mensah from 2025 ACC champion Duke. (The Blue Devils, in turn, had yanked Mensah from Tulane during the previous offseason.)

Mensah quietly put up huge stats in 2025, giving Duke the offensive pop it needed to ultimately win the conference as a pretty flawed team. His 3,973 passing yards ranked second in FBS, trailing only North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker. 

Mensah’s arrival was not uncomplicated, as Duke actually sued its former quarterback for breach of contract. (Thanks again, NIL landscape.) But with Mensah’s ability and eligibility at Miami now seemingly settled, the expectation is that Miami has found its mercenary transfer for the third year in a row. 

That’s relevant for understanding the market and expectations for new Miami quarterbacks. Cam Ward and Carson Beck were both good quarterbacks, and the former even went No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft. But neither were able to catch on in crowded Heisman markets.

Mensah remains a talented quarterback who could put up huge numbers in Coral Gables. Whether or not his Heisman odds will fare better than Miami’s futures prospects remains to be seen.

Heisman Odds: Trinidad Chambliss

Chambliss needed a legal win to ensure he was eligible for this sixth season, and he got it. With his eligibility issues now resolved, Chambliss is ready to author the follow-up to last year’s deep playoff run.

Chambliss is a polarizing figure among bettors. His Division II roots are cause for skepticism among some fans who prefer to bet on blue-chip quarterbacks. As of late July, only about 3% of the early Heisman market was backing Chambliss. That was a lower ticket percentage than nearly 10 different guys, including Bryce Underwood and Darian Mensah. 

But Chambliss is one of only two returning quarterbacks who played in last year’s CFP semifinals. He’s athletic, instinctive, and far more experienced than many of the other players near the top of the market. The price on Chambliss is both fair and hard-won.

If you gave me one free roll at any of the four players currently +1000 or shorter, I would pick Chambliss. He’s more consistent than Manning, a far better-known commodity than Carr, and earns more credit for his team’s success than Moore. 

Heisman Odds: Jeremiah Smith

Jeremiah Smith, the Ohio State wide receiver, is currently +1600 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Smith ended the 2025 college football season as the No. 1 most popular Heisman ticket at BetMGM, and he will surely enjoy similar popularity in the upcoming season. As of Aug. 24, he’s the No. 5 most popular Heisman bet with 6.2% of all tickets. 

As was the case last year, the fundamental question for Smith’s Heisman candidacy isn’t whether or not he’s good enough. (He is.)

Instead, it’s what conditions would have to manifest in order for a wide receiver to win the award over an immensely deep and talented class of high-level college quarterbacks. That group includes his own quarterback, Sayin.

Without a good answer to that question, Smith is a great player, but not necessarily a great Heisman bet.

Heisman Odds: Josh Hoover

Josh Hoover, the Indiana quarterback, is currently +1600 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Hoover has been a quietly good starting quarterback at TCU since 2023. He’s thrown for 71 touchdowns and 9,600 yards in about 2.5 seasons in Fort Worth.

Hoover is using his last gasp of NCAA eligibility to make a high-profile move to Indiana, where he’ll presumably be well-compensated as the likely starting quarterback of the reigning national champions.

The mere fact that Hoover is the starting quarterback for Curt Cignetti’s Indiana program makes him relevant for the Heisman. But I would argue Hoover has actually been a lot better at TCU than Fernando Mendoza ever was at Cal, which makes him an interesting Heisman candidate to evaluate.

So much of the quarterback position is processing power, intuition, leadership, and effective decision-making. It’s hard to compare and project guys across programs like this. But if you’re of the belief that Mendoza’s success was as much about Cignetti’s brilliance as anything else, Hoover should be a near-automatic preseason Heisman bet for you – especially at this price point.

Heisman Odds: Sam Leavitt

Sam Leavitt, the LSU quarterback, is currently +2500 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Sam Leavitt never blew anyone away at Arizona State, but he was a very efficient dual-threat quarterback – particularly in 2024, when the Sun Devils won the Big 12 and nearly beat Texas in the College Football Playoff.

Perhaps Leavitt’s lack of national acclaim was due to his jersey, not his game. That’s the bet you’re making with a preseason Leavitt Heisman ticket – that Leavitt is healthy and ready for primetime with a relocation to Baton Rouge.

Sam Leavitt @ +2500

Heisman Odds: Gunner Stockton

Gunner Stockton, the Georgia quarterback, is currently +2500 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Stockton remains one of the most overlooked quarterbacks in FBS. He threw for 2,894 yards and 24 touchdowns last year, adding 462 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. His 84.9 QBR ranked sixth in 2025.

Stockton is arguably the best Georgia quarterback of the modern era. But because Kirby Smart’s program is coded as a team that wins by defense, there’s less attention on Stockton’s contributions than, say, Manning at Texas. Or Chambliss at Ole Miss. Probably other quarterbacks in the SEC, too.

At this price, which is more of a midrange buy point, you could do worse than bet on a dual-threat senior SEC quarterback whose team will likely win at least 10 games and play in the College Football Playoff. Stockton might not have the sizzle of other top prospects, but he scores points on a lot of intangible team success dynamics. He’s got a PR problem, not a football problem. 

Gunner Stockton @ +2500

Heisman Odds: John Mateer 

John Mateer, the Oklahoma quarterback, is currently +2500 to win the Heisman Trophy.

After following offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State to Oklahoma, Mateer started the 2025 campaign as a trendy Heisman name. He’s one of the few names I personally bet last year. 

After beating Michigan, Mateer surged to the top of the board, briefly holding the position of Heisman favorite. But after injuring his hand against Auburn in Week 4, Mateer had in-season surgery. After analysts projected he’d miss 4-6 weeks, he returned against archrival Texas on Oct. 11. He clearly wasn’t healthy yet, and the Sooners lost 23-6. 

Oklahoma posted a strong November, earning wins against ranked teams at Tennessee, Alabama, and Missouri. Still, Mateer’s middle third of the season was enough to permanently drop him out of the Heisman race.

With Mateer now healthy again heading into 2026, he should be considered just as serious a Heisman contender as he was last September before the injury. There’s more top-end competition for this year’s award, but Mateer is still a value buy as a mid-range candidate. After last year, we already know he can play well enough to become a favorite.

Heisman Odds: Jayden Maiava

Jayden Maiava, the USC quarterback, is currently +2500 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Maiava is athletic. He’s mobile. He’s flashy. He’s a veteran quarterback. He plays for a premium college football brand. He’s going to put up good numbers this year, after also putting up good numbers last year.

In short, Maiava is everything you want in a Heisman contender. 

Despite all that, Maiava is priced more like a mid-range candidate at 25-to-1. He’s behind less “talented” players like Leavitt and Hoover. So what gives?

In my opinion, this is the market putting a ceiling on Maiava’s potential achievement because of the team he plays for. USC is a classic college football brand, but the Trojans aren’t expected to finish higher than fourth or fifth in this year’s Big Ten. And is the Heisman Trophy winner really going to be the quarterback of the fifth-place Big Ten team?

Maiava is a great target at a good price if you’re bullish on USC’s chances in the Big Ten this year. Otherwise, he might be a better NFL Draft candidate than a Heisman contender. 

Heisman Odds: Marcel Reed

Marcel Reed, the Texas A&M quarterback, is currently +4000 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Unless you were absolutely locked into the week-by-week developments of the 2025 Heisman race, you may not remember that Reed was live in the awards market as late as Week 13. The Aggies were undefeated, and Reed was one of four players who were all shorter than 7-to-1. (The others were Sayin, Fernando Mendoza, and Ty Simpson.)

What happened next? Texas A&M lost its regular-season finale at Texas, then crashed out of the playoffs with a first-round loss to eventual national runner-up Miami.

As a result, Texas A&M – undefeated in mid-November! – is barely remembered. Reed’s Heisman relevance has been all but memory-holed. 

That makes Reed a pretty interesting midrange Heisman candidate for 2026. He’s not Johnny Manziel or anything, but he is a dual-threat with more than 450 rushing yards in back-to-back years. He was a top 25 quarterback last season in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and QBR. The big criticism is that he throws too many picks. 

The SEC feels completely up for grabs this year, and that could compound to the gain of Reed and Texas A&M. At +2500, there’s a lot of upside here.

Marcel Reed @ +4000

Heisman Odds: Bryce Underwood

Bryce Underwood, the Michigan quarterback, is currently +5000 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Underwood was a talented but imperfect Ann Arbor freshman in 2025, leading the high-powered offense of the maize and blue. 

Underwood’s 2026 Heisman relevance requires some projection. The dual-threat finished last season with 17 total touchdowns and nine interceptions – good for a freshman quarterback, but not anywhere near being the best quarterback in Division I college football. (His 72.6 QBR did rank 29th.)

Michigan fans who see a potential Year 2 leap for Underwood could take an early position here and get a decent offseason number. Frankly, that’s what I expect to happen this summer, as BetMGM has a strong presence in Michigan. 

By the time Labor Day rolls around, I expect Underwood to have a greater market representation than his fundamentals probably imply. 

Heisman Odds: Malachi Toney

Malachi Toney, the Miami receiver, is currently +4000 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Toney was a clear star for the Hurricanes in last year’s successful campaign, leading the FBS with 109 catches and finishing the season with 1,211 receiving yards. 

Those totals alone are impressive, but they probably wouldn’t be enough to get Toney this high in the Heisman table for his sophomore season. Instead, it was the speed and impact that he played with – particularly in the College Football Playoff – that had bettors writing his name down for future award consideration.

At 40-to-1, the price is decent, but not outstanding. If you’re going to bet a receiver to win the Heisman – something that’s only happened twice since 1990 – you’d like to get a longer price than this. 

Toney is essentially one good Week 1 performance from finding price parity with a guy like Reed, who was a late-season contender for last year’s award. Not great!

But the other side of that coin is that Toney appears to be a special caliber of playmaker, and he’s playing for a team that’s both a splashy brand and the current national runner-up. That’s the kind of starting point you’d want if you’re willing to bet on a Heisman zag like a receiver winning the award. 

Malachi Toney @ +4000

Heisman Trophy Odds 2026: What to Know Before You Bet

Previous Heisman Trophy Winners