- Cincinnati is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Houston
- Houston vs. Cincinnati Total(Over/Under): 47.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Houston Cougars (1-2) visit Nippert Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Cincinnati, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Cincinnati is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Houston vs. Cincinnati Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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Houston vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Houston | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +135 |
| Cincinnati | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -165 |
Houston vs Cincinnati Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Cincinnati will win this game with 65.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Houston and Cincinnati, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Houston vs Cincinnati Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Cincinnati will cover the spread with 65.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Houston Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Houston have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Houston have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Houston have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
Cincinnati Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.20 Units / 3% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Houston players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Houston Player Prop Bets Today
- Joseph Manjack IV has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Donovan Smith has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Parker Jenkins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Donovan Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Donovan Smith has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Cincinnati players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cincinnati Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Corey Kiner has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 95% ROI)
- Xzavier Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Houston is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.95 Units / 29.23% ROI).
- Houston is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -35.48% ROI
- Houston is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Houston is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Cincinnati is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Cincinnati is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -9.09% ROI
- Cincinnati is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Cincinnati is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Houston: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati
Houston is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .324
Houston is 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .403
Houston is 2-7 (.167) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .346
Houston is 2-7 (.222) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .497
Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. Houston
Cincinnati is winless (0-7) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408
Cincinnati is winless (0-7) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .407
Cincinnati is 3-6 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .497
Cincinnati is 4-9 (.267) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-27th-worst in FBS; Average: .517
Matchup Notes for Houston vs. Cincinnati
Cincinnati’s offense has thrown for 867 passing yards in 3 games (289.0 YPG) this season — T-30th-best among FBS offenses. Houston’s defense has allowed just 123.7 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati’s QBs has thrown for 867 passing yards in 3 games (289.0 YPG) this season — T-30th-best among FBS teams. Houston’s defense has allowed just 123.7 passing yards per game this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Cincinnati’s TEs has gained 562 yards on 49 receptions (11.5 YPR) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.
Houston have just 203.7 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 300.7 receiving yards per game this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Houston’s TEs has 27 receptions in 14 games (just 1.9 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 TEs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed just 16.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.
Houston’s TEs has just 0.0 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-worst among Big 12 TEs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 2.3 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Houston Offensive Stats & Trends
Houston Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 19.3 receptions (58 Rec/3 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 9.6
Houston have just 203.7 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 300.7 receiving yards per game this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Houston’s TEs has 27 receptions in 14 games (just 1.9 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 TEs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed just 16.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.
Houston WRs have caught 36 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– most among Big 12 Teams
Houston’s TEs has just 0.0 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-worst among Big 12 TEs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 2.3 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati Offensive Stats & Trends
Cincinnati RBs have averaged 12.5 Yards per Carry (287 yards/23 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
Cincinnati have been sacked on 25% of pass attempts (2/8) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big 12 Offenses; Average: 4%
Cincinnati TEs have been targeted 7 times in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Cincinnati RBs have averaged 12.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (287 yards / 23 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7
Cincinnati’s offense has thrown for 867 passing yards in 3 games (289.0 YPG) this season — T-30th-best among FBS offenses. Houston’s defense has allowed just 123.7 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.
Houston Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends
Houston has allowed 12.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (96 yards / 8 touches) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 5.0
Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of 74% (48 completions/65 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 60%
Houston has not forced a fumble (101 carries) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 43.0
Houston has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 42 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 10%.
Houston has not forced a fumble (101 carries) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.5
Cincinnati Bearcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Cincinnati has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 11 rushes in the Red Zone this season– T-best in the Big 12; Average: 6.1
Cincinnati has no interceptions (67 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 48.1
Cincinnati has no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 11.0
Cincinnati has allowed 8.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (6,149 yards / 740 touches) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 7.0
Cincinnati has allowed 8.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (6,149 yards / 740 touches) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 6.8
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