Houston vs Louisiana Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: Independence Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 23, 2022, 10:11 AM
  • Houston (7-5) are -6.5 point favorites vs Louisiana (6-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
  • Watch the Independence Bowl game on ESPN

The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (7-5) visit Independence Stadium to take on the Houston Cougars (6-6) on Dec. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Shreveport for the Independence Bowl.

Houston are betting favorites in Week 17, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Houston vs. Louisiana Over/Under is 57 total points.

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Houston vs. Louisiana Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Houston-7 -11057 -110-275
Louisiana +7 -11057 -110+220

Houston vs Louisiana Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Houston will win this game with 71.1% confidence.

Houston vs Louisiana Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Houston will cover the spread with 53.8% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Houston and Louisiana, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Louisiana Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Louisiana players for Week 17, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Clayton Tune has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Nathaniel Dell has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Clayton Tune has hit the TD Passes Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Louisiana have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+5.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Houston has hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Houston has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Houston has hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+4.25 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 33% ROI)

Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Houston has gone 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.55 Units / 20.99% ROI).

  • Houston is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -1.62% ROI
  • Houston is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Houston is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Louisiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisiana has gone 4-8 against the spread this college football season (-4.85 Units / -36.6% ROI).

  • Louisiana is 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -9.16% ROI
  • Louisiana is 9-2 when betting the Over for +6.8 Units / 51.52% ROI
  • Louisiana is 2-9 when betting the Under for -7.9 Units / -59.85% ROI

Houston: Keys to the Game vs. Louisiana

Louisiana is 9-3 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– tied for 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .384

Louisiana is 15-2 (.882) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– tied for 6th-best in FBS; Average: .562

Louisiana is 12-3 (.706) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .446

Louisiana is 15-3 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– tied for 15th-best in FBS; Average: .555

Louisiana: Keys to the Game vs. Houston

Houston is 9-4 (.692) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: .384

Houston is undefeated (10-0) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .584

Houston is 16-4 (.727) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2021 season– 12th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Houston is 17-4 (.739) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– 12th-best in FBS; Average: .517

Houston Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana TEs have caught 5 touchdown passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

Louisiana TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Louisiana RBs have rushed for 17 TDs in the 4th quarter since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Louisiana Kickers have kicked off 0.0 times per game this season– tied for 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Louisiana TEs have 16 receptions in close and late situations this season– 5th most among FBS Teams

Louisiana Offensive Stats & Trends

Houston WRs have 38 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Houston WRs have caught 11 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Houston WRs have caught 34 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

Houston WRs have caught 9 touchdown passes in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Houston Skill Players have picked up first downs on 27 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana has no interceptions (55 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 37.7

Louisiana has no interceptions (55 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 33.8

Louisiana has no interceptions and 15 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 8.7

Louisiana’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 14% of PATs this season– 2nd highest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 6%

Louisiana’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 9% of PATs since last season– 4th highest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 4%

Houston Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends

Houston has allowed 19 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

Houston has allowed 30 TD passes this season– most in FBS

Houston has allowed 19 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Non-Power 5 Teams

Houston has allowed 5.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) this season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.9

Houston has allowed 5.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) this season– 5th worst in FBS; Average: 1.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.