Illinois vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:40 AM
  • Michigan (10-0) are -17.5 point favorites vs Illinois (7-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points

The Illinois Fighting Illini (7-4) visit Michigan Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (11-0) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Ann Arbor.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Illinois vs. Michigan is total points.

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Illinois vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Illinois
Michigan

Illinois vs Michigan Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 72.1% confidence.

Illinois vs Michigan Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 68.9% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Illinois and Michigan, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Illinois Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Illinois players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chase Brown has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Tommy DeVito has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Tommy DeVito has hit the TD Passes Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+2.45 Units / 34% ROI)

Best Michigan Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cornelius Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • J.J. McCarthy has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • J.J. McCarthy has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Ronnie Bell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+17.40 Units / 223% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 12 games (+12.82 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Illinois have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 18 games (+14.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Michigan have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.87 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 30% ROI)

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Illinois is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -11.98% ROI
  • Illinois is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -32.73% ROI
  • Illinois is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 24.55% ROI

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Michigan is 5-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 10.25% ROI
  • Michigan is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -51.82% ROI
  • Michigan is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 43.64% ROI

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

#18 Illinois is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 22 or more points — tied for 15th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .296

#18 Illinois is 3-7 (.300) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .497

Illinois is 3-9 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2020 season– tied for 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .499

Illinois is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .509

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

#4 Michigan is undefeated (19-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — best in FBS; Average: .513

#4 Michigan is 21-2 (.913) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .494

#4 Michigan is undefeated (15-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush — tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .600

#4 Michigan is 9-2 (.818) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .416

Matchup Notes for Illinois vs. Michigan

Michigan’s RBs has 17 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — fifth-most among FBS RBs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 5 rushing TDs this season — fourth-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan’s RBs has 22 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most among FBS RBs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 5 rushing TDs this season — fourth-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan’s RBs has 2,000 rushing yards this season — third-most among FBS RBs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 677 rushing yards this season — second-fewest among P5 defenses.

Illinois’s WRs has gained 2,766 yards on 238 receptions (just 11.6 YPR) since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among Power 5 WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois’s RBs has 7 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for fewest among FBS RBs. Michigan’s defense has allowed 9 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — third-fewest among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s offense has 13 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for second-fewest among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense has allowed 9 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — third-fewest among FBS defenses.

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Illinois’s WRs has gained 2,766 yards on 238 receptions (just 11.6 YPR) since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among Power 5 WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois RBs have rushed for 5 TDs on 326 carries (65.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 5th worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.6

Illinois RBs have rushed for 12 TDs on 707 carries (58.9 Carries Per TD) since last season– worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.9

Illinois Skill Players have fumbled 12 times this season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

Illinois RBs have rushed for 7 TDs on 80 carries (11.4 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.7

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

#3 Michigan RBs have averaged 198.1 rushing yards per game (4,556/23) since last season– tied for 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 132.2

#3 Michigan RBs have averaged 222.2 rushing yards per game (2,000/9) this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 130.8

#3 Michigan RBs have averaged 14.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (391 yards / 27 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#3 Michigan TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

#3 Michigan RBs have rushed for 22 TDs this season– tied for 4th most among FBS Teams

Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends

Illinois has 16 interceptions this season– tied for most in FBS

Illinois has 16 interceptions this season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

Illinois has allowed a Completion Pct of just 50% (143 completions/288 attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 60%

Illinois has allowed a passer rating of just 93.8 (288.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 130.7

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on 59 of 253 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) this season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends

#3 Michigan has no interceptions (62 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 41.7

#3 Michigan has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 246 carries (82 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 24.3

#3 Michigan has no interceptions (62 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 36.8

#3 Michigan has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 246 carries (82 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 25.4

#3 Michigan has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 20 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.