Illinois vs Northwestern Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2022, 9:08 AM
  • Illinois (7-4) are -14 point favorites vs Northwestern (1-10)
  • Total (Over/Under): 38 points

The Illinois Fighting Illini (7-4) visit Ryan Field to take on the Northwestern Wildcats (1-10) on Nov. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Evanston.

Illinois are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Illinois vs. Northwestern Over/Under is 38 total points.

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Illinois vs. Northwestern Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Illinois-14 -11038 -110-550
Northwestern +14 -11038 -110+380

Illinois vs Northwestern Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Illinois will win this game with 67.5% confidence.

Illinois vs Northwestern Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 76.1% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Illinois and Northwestern, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Illinois Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Illinois players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chase Brown has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Tommy DeVito has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Chase Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Tommy DeVito has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)

Best Northwestern Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Northwestern players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Hilinski has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Evan Hull has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Evan Hull has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+16.40 Units / 186% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+11.82 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Illinois have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+6.10 Units / 122% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.35 Units / 12% ROI)

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois has gone 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.65 Units / 21.99% ROI).

  • Illinois is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -15.48% ROI
  • Illinois is 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -38.84% ROI
  • Illinois is 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 30.58% ROI

Northwestern Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Northwestern has gone 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI).

  • Northwestern is 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.95 Units / -62.6% ROI
  • Northwestern is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
  • Northwestern is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Northwestern

Illinois is 4-8 (.308) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495

Illinois is 3-8 (.273) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .497

Northwestern: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

Northwestern is winless (0-8) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495

Northwestern is 1-12 (.062) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .453

Northwestern is winless (0-8) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .494

Northwestern is winless (0-6) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .460

Matchup Notes for Illinois vs. Northwestern

Northwestern’s WRs has 4 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — third-fewest among Power 5 WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 11 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — fourth-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern has 20 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fifth-fewest among Power 5 skill players. Illinois’s defense has allowed 20 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — third-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern’s WRs have just 104.3 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst among Power 5 WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 178.9 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois’s WRs has gained 2,879 yards on 253 receptions (just 11.4 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among Power 5 WRs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Illinois Skill Players have averaged just 6.5 yards per reception (124 yards/19 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.3

Illinois RBs have rushed for 8 TDs on 85 carries (10.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.7

Illinois’s WRs has gained 2,879 yards on 253 receptions (just 11.4 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among Power 5 WRs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois RBs have averaged 3.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (792 yards / 213 touches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Illinois RBs have rushed for 14 TDs on 738 carries (52.7 Carries Per TD) since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.9

Northwestern Offensive Stats & Trends

Northwestern WRs have averaged a touchdown every 24.3 receptions (219 Rec/9 TDs) since last season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.9

Northwestern WRs have averaged a touchdown every 29.3 receptions (88 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.1

Northwestern RBs have been targeted 12 times in short yardage situations this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Northwestern WRs have averaged a touchdown every 24.3 receptions (219 Rec/9 TDs) since last season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0

Northwestern WRs have averaged a touchdown every 4.5 receptions (18 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.0

Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends

Illinois opponents has averaged 6.9 Passing Attempts per TD (76 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 4.0

Illinois has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (45 completions/111 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 54%

Illinois opponents has averaged 6.9 Passing Attempts per TD (76 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.1

Illinois has allowed opponents to catch just 45 of 111 passes (41% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

Illinois has allowed a Completion Pct of just 55% (374 completions/682 attempts) since the 2021 season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

Northwestern Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Northwestern has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (10 completions/30 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 53%

Northwestern has allowed opponents to catch just 11 of 31 passes (35% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 54%

Northwestern has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (10 completions/30 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

Northwestern has allowed 4.7 touchdowns per interception (14 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) — 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.7

Northwestern has allowed 4.7 touchdowns per interception (14 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) — 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.