Indiana vs Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:25 AM
  • Michigan State (5-5) are -10.5 point favorites vs Indiana (3-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points

The Indiana Hoosiers (4-7) visit Spartan Stadium to take on the Michigan State Spartans (5-6) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in East Lansing.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Indiana vs. Michigan State is total points.

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Indiana vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Indiana
Michigan State

Indiana vs Michigan State Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Michigan State will win this game with 64.8% confidence.

Indiana vs Michigan State Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 67.1% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Indiana and Michigan State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Indiana Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Indiana players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Connor Bazelak has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Connor Bazelak has hit the Passing Yards Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Michigan State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan State players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Payton Thorne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Payton Thorne has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Tre Mosley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jayden Reed has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jalen Berger has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Payton Thorne has hit the TD Passes Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jarek Broussard has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Indiana has hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Indiana has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Indiana have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Indiana has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.65 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Indiana has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games (+2.35 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+15.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.29 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 22 games (+5.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Michigan State have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Michigan State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)

Indiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Indiana has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Indiana is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -41.03% ROI
  • Indiana is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
  • Indiana is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Michigan State is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.6 Units / 19.82% ROI
  • Michigan State is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Michigan State is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Indiana: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

Indiana is winless (0-11) when rushing more than 30 times — worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .454

Indiana is 1-14 (.067) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards — 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .396

Indiana is winless (0-9) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties — tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .519

Indiana is winless (0-12) when not forcing a fumble — tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .452

Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Indiana

Michigan State is 15-2 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 4th-best in FBS; Average: .494

Michigan State is 9-3 (.562) when making 7 or more explosive plays — tied for 15th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447

Michigan State is 11-1 (.846) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game — tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .545

Michigan State is 12-2 (.667) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — tied for 5th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .429

Matchup Notes for Indiana vs. Michigan State

Indiana’s WRs has 10 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for second-fewest among Power 5 WRs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 45 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — second-most among Big Ten defenses.

Indiana’s WRs has 10 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for second-fewest among Power 5 WRs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 45 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fourth-most among P5 defenses.

Indiana Offensive Stats & Trends

Indiana WRs have averaged a touchdown every 24.0 receptions (240 Rec/10 TDs) since last season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

Indiana WRs have fumbled 6 times in the 4th quarter since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

Indiana WRs have fumbled 6 times in the 4th quarter since last season– most among FBS Teams

Indiana WRs have averaged a touchdown every 24.0 receptions (240 Rec/10 TDs) since last season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

Indiana Skill Players have fumbled 8 times in close and late situations since last season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State WRs have 10 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

Michigan State RBs have averaged 6.7 Yards per Carry (679 yards/101 carries) in close and late situations since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.8

Michigan State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 7.2 receptions (273 Rec/38 TDs) since last season– 4th best Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

Michigan State TEs have been targeted 19 times in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 4th most among Power 5 Teams

Michigan State WRs have averaged just 4.5 yards per reception (45 yards/10 catches) on 3rd and short since last season– tied for 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

Indiana Hoosiers Defensive Stats & Trends

Indiana has allowed a passer rating of 247.2 in the Red Zone (75.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 164.3

Indiana has allowed a passer rating of 247.2 in the Red Zone (75.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 161.6

Indiana has allowed 31 first down receptions in the Red Zone since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

Indiana has allowed 31 TD passes in the Red Zone since last season– most in FBS

Indiana has allowed first downs on 41% of pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 22%

Michigan State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State has allowed 9.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Michigan State has allowed 9.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.7

Michigan State has allowed 300 first down receptions since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

Michigan State has intercepted 2 of 303 attempts (151.5 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 37.7

Michigan State has allowed 18 rushing TDs on 141 carries (7.8 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.