Iowa St. vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2022, 9:00 AM
  • TCU (11-0) are -10 point favorites vs Iowa St. (4-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points

The Iowa State Cyclones (4-7) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on the TCU Horned Frogs (11-0) on Nov. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Fort Worth.

TCU are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).

The Iowa St. vs. TCU Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Iowa St. vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Iowa St.+10 -11047.5 -110+300
TCU -10 -11047.5 -110-400

Iowa St. vs TCU Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 66.6% confidence.

Iowa St. vs TCU Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 70.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa St. and TCU, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Iowa St. Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Iowa St. players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Hunter Dekkers has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Hunter Dekkers has hit the TD Passes Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jirehl Brock has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Jaylin Noel has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Hunter Dekkers has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.00 Units / 30% ROI)

Best TCU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for TCU players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Quentin Johnston has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Kendre Miller has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.10 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Iowa State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Iowa State has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Iowa State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Iowa State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Iowa State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+13.45 Units / 35% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.85 Units / 56% ROI)
  • TCU have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.90 Units / 26% ROI)

Iowa St. Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa St. has gone 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / 0% ROI).

  • Iowa St. is 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.6 Units / -24.62% ROI
  • Iowa St. is 2-9 when betting the Over for -7.95 Units / -65.43% ROI
  • Iowa St. is 9-2 when betting the Under for +6.8 Units / 56.43% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU has gone 8-2 against the spread this college football season (+5.8 Units / 0% ROI).

  • TCU is 10-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +12 Units / 54.55% ROI
  • TCU is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • TCU is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Iowa St.: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

Iowa State is winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .283

Iowa State is winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .298

Iowa State is 3-10 (.231) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495

Iowa State is 3-10 (.188) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– tied for 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .345

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa St.

#4 TCU is undefeated (8-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .438

#4 TCU is 9-2 (.750) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .446

#4 TCU is 10-5 (.667) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .418

#4 TCU is undefeated (9-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .432

Matchup Notes for Iowa St. vs. TCU

TCU has gained 5,539 yards on 394 receptions (14.1 YPR) since the 2021 season — third-best among Power 5 skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,686 yards on 301 receptions (15.6 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Power 5 WRs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s RBs has rushed for 3,440 yards on 568 carries (6.1 YPC) since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among FBS RBs. Iowa State’s defense have allowed just 3.4 YPC since the 2021 season — best among Big 12 defenses.

Iowa State’s TEs has been targeted 178 times since the 2021 season — fifth-most among P5 TEs. TCU’s defense has allowed 5,204 receiving yards since the 2021 season — fourth-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Iowa State’s TEs have 65.4 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among P5 TEs. TCU’s defense has allowed 236.5 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Iowa State has 271 receptions in 10 games (27.1 per game) this season — fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed just 17.9 receptions per game this season — third-best among Big 12 defenses.

Iowa St. Offensive Stats & Trends

Iowa State Skill Players have been targeted 127 times on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Iowa State TEs have caught 6 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

Iowa State Skill Players have been targeted 127 times on 3rd down this season– most among Power 5 Teams

Iowa State TEs have caught 6 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since last season– 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

Iowa State WRs have 63 receptions on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU has gained 5,539 yards on 394 receptions (14.1 YPR) since the 2021 season — third-best among Power 5 skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,686 yards on 301 receptions (15.6 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Power 5 WRs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

#4 TCU RBs have averaged 6.1 Yards per Carry (3,440 yards/568 carries) since the 2021 season– tied for 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

#4 TCU WRs have 17 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

#4 TCU WRs have averaged 16.9 yards per reception (944 yards/56 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.1

Iowa State Cyclones Defensive Stats & Trends

Iowa State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (16 completions/41 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 53%

Iowa State has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 323 carries (64.6 Carries Per TD) — 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 25.3

Iowa State has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 323 carries (64.6 Carries Per TD) — 4th-best in FBS; Average: 24.2

Iowa State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (16 completions/41 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 54%

Iowa State has allowed 16 rushing TDs on 768 carries (48 Carries Per TD) since the 2021 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 24.2

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

#4 TCU has forced 8 fumbles on 821 carries (102.6 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 42.1

#4 TCU has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 25 of 640 attempts (4%) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

#4 TCU has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 86 of 640 attempts (13%) since the 2021 season– 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10%

#4 TCU has forced 8 fumbles on 821 carries (102.6 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 41.4

#4 TCU has allowed first downs on 33% of rush attempts in close and late situations since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 22%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.