Kansas vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 14

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Baylor head coach Dave Aranda yells from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Albany in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero)
(AP Photo/LM Otero)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2024, 2:21 PM
  • Kansas is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Baylor
  • Kansas vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN2

The Kansas Jayhawks (5-6) visit McLane Stadium to take on the Baylor Bears (7-4) on Nov. 30 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Kansas is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Kansas vs. Baylor Over/Under is 61.5 total points.

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Kansas vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kansas-1.5 -11061.5 -110-125
Baylor +1.5 -11061.5 -110+105

Kansas vs Baylor Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 54.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kansas and Baylor, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kansas vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Kansas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Kansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.05 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Kansas have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Kansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.75 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the Spread in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 39% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kansas Player Prop Bets Today

  • Luke Grimm has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Jalon Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Jalon Daniels has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Devin Neal has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Lawrence Arnold has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Baylor players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Baylor Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Josh Cameron has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Hal Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Monaray Baldwin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Bryson Washington has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Kansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.65 Units / -13.58% ROI).

  • Kansas is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -35.93% ROI
  • Kansas is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Kansas is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor is 8-3 against the spread this college football season (+4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI).

  • Baylor is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 10.05% ROI
  • Baylor is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
  • Baylor is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

Kansas: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Kansas is 3-6 (.333) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .532

Kansas is 12-3 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .589

Kansas is 9-8 (.529) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .427

Kansas is 1-5 (.167) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .474

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas

Baylor is undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .737

Baylor is 1-8 (.111) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .399

Baylor is 2-7 (.222) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .504

Baylor is 2-7 (.222) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .525

Matchup Notes for Kansas vs. Baylor

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 331 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has gained 1,890 yards on 131 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big 12 WRs. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 331 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 594 attempts since the 2023 season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 594 attempts since the 2023 season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas’s WRs has gained 3,812 yards on 234 receptions (16.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 594 attempts since the 2023 season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 594 attempts since the 2023 season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas’s WRs has gained 3,812 yards on 234 receptions (16.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s TEs has gained 915 yards on 69 receptions (13.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas has gained 5,346 yards on 364 receptions (14.7 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 skill players. Baylor’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 331 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has gained 1,890 yards on 131 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big 12 WRs. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 331 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.5% of 773 attempts since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.4% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor has gained 2,642 yards on 200 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-5th-best among Big 12 skill players. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas Jayhawks Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas allowed 11.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (22 yards / 2 touches) in the Red Zone last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 3.2

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest in the Big 12; Average: 8%

Kansas tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 13 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) last week– best in the Big 12; Average: 16%.

Kansas has allowed 4.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (272 yards / 64 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.6

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor allowed no passing TDs (25 pass attempts) last week– T-best in the Big 12; Average: 20.3

Baylor has allowed a Completion Pct of just 17% (1 completions/6 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 26 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 16%.

Baylor has allowed first downs on 17% of pass attempts on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 49%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.