Kansas vs Nevada Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

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Nevada wide receiver Dalevon Campbell (5) runs up field during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa, Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 16, 2023, 11:15 AM
  • Kansas is a -28 point favorite vs. Nevada
  • Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS Sports Network

The Kansas Jayhawks visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT in Reno.

Kansas is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -28.5 (-110).

The Kansas vs. Nevada Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

Bet now on Nevada vs Kansas & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Kansas vs. Nevada Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kansas-28.5 -11058.5 -115-10000
Nevada +28.5 -11058.5 -105+1800

Kansas vs Nevada Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Kansas will win this game with 95.0% confidence.

Kansas vs Nevada Spread Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kansas will cover the spread with 59.8% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Kansas and Nevada, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Bet now on Nevada vs Kansas and all games with BetMGM


  • Kansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Kansas has hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Kansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Kansas has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Kansas has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games (+4.25 Units / 106% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1H Moneyline in 1 of their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.80 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Kansas Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kansas players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lawrence Arnold has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jalon Daniels has hit the Passing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Devin Neal has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Luke Grimm has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+1.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Jalon Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)

Kansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Kansas is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 58.82% ROI
  • Kansas is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Kansas is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Nevada is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Nevada is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Nevada is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Kansas: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

Kansas is winless (0-1) when allowing 3 or more sacks since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .246

Kansas is 1-13 (.059) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– tied for 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .325

Kansas is 3-12 (.188) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 6th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .497

Kansas is 2-15 (.111) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season– 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .385

Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas

Nevada is winless (0-7) when intercepting no passes since the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .347

Nevada is 1-10 (.083) when intercepting no passes since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-worst in FBS; Average: .347

Nevada is 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season– tied for 15th-worst in FBS; Average: .414

Matchup Notes for Kansas vs. Nevada

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.7% of 468 attempts since the 2022 season — tied for 15th-worst among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 10.7% of attempts since the 2022 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.9% of 72 attempts this season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.2% of attempts this season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.9% of 72 attempts this season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.2% of attempts this season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s WRs has gained 410 yards on 28 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — fifth-best among Big 12 WRs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 19.2 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among NonP5 defenses.

Kansas’s WRs has gained 2,632 yards on 179 receptions (14.7 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for 27th-best among FBS WRs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — fourth-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Kansas has gained 3,689 yards on 275 receptions (13.4 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for 17th-best among FBS skill players. Nevada’s defense has allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — fifth-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas RBs fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season– most among FBS Teams

Kansas’s WRs has gained 410 yards on 28 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — fifth-best among Big 12 WRs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 19.2 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among NonP5 defenses.

Kansas’s WRs has gained 2,632 yards on 179 receptions (14.7 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for 27th-best among FBS WRs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — fourth-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Kansas has gained 3,689 yards on 275 receptions (13.4 YPR) since the 2022 season — tied for 17th-best among FBS skill players. Nevada’s defense has allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — fifth-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas RBs have fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Nevada Offensive Stats & Trends

Nevada Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 32.5 receptions (260 Rec/8 TDs) since last season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.7% of 468 attempts since the 2022 season — tied for 15th-worst among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 10.7% of attempts since the 2022 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.9% of 72 attempts this season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.2% of attempts this season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Nevada Skill Players had just one touchdown on 13 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.9% of 72 attempts this season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.2% of attempts this season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas Jayhawks Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 18 of 221 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Kansas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 124 of 1,114 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) since the 2021 season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Kansas has allowed opponents to catch 64 of 95 passes (67% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2021 season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Kansas has allowed 62 rushing TDs in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– most in FBS

Kansas has averaged 2.00 interceptions per game (2/1) this season– tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: 0.85

Nevada Wolf Pack Defensive Stats & Trends

Nevada has allowed 14.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (668 yards / 45 touches) this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 6.5

Nevada has allowed 14.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (668 yards / 45 touches) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 6.4

Nevada has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 9 of 34 attempts (27%) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 9%

Nevada has allowed 10.8 Yards per Carry (215 yards/20 carries) this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.0

Nevada has allowed 6 TD passes this season– tied for most among Non-Power 5 Teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.