Kansas State Is the Best Value Available In the Big 12 Futures Market Right Now

As a seasoned NCAA bettor, I check the college football futures odds markets every week. 

This is particularly important around the end of September, when conference play is just getting underway. Bettors now have a few games’ worth of data points to consider for each team, but the preseason conference odds probably haven’t moved much with so many league games remaining.

This week, I discovered a clear in-season conference betting opportunity in the Big 12. 

Kansas State Football Report

Back in the preseason, it was fair to wonder what Kansas State football might look like in 2026. The Wildcats were replacing former head coach and proven winner Chris Klieman with a young, fairly inexperienced offensive coordinator. How could anyone know if Collin Klein would be any good?

Fans always like when the head coach is “one of their guys.” Klein was a legit Heisman contender with K-State in 2012, but that excitement has no correlation to whether or not the hire will actually work. 

Klein hasn’t won anything substantive yet, but it sure seems like the Wildcats are going to remain in the mix in the Big 12. Through three weeks of the 2026 season, K-State is playing its traditional brand of tight, physical defense, ranking eighth in EPA/pass allowed and first in defensive success rate against pass plays.

But unsurprisingly, it’s the offense where Klein appears to have really brought Kansas State forward. Quarterback Avery Johnson looks like a guy who’s finally ready to live up to his potential, gliding around on bootlegs and efficiently operating the Wildcats’ offense. They rank 27th in EPA/rush, with a lot of that value coming specifically from Johnson on quarterback runs.

It’s still early, and this weekend’s road game at Cincinnati won’t necessarily provide a definitive grade on Kansas State’s future value. But at this point, any short list of Big 12 contenders should probably include the Wildcats. 

Big 12 Futures Odds: Finding Value in the 2026 Big 12 Football Market

As I’ve ranted about weekly on the Ten12 podcast, Texas Tech remains a huge, sluggish albatross at the top of the Big 12 odds market. The Red Raiders were priced as a significant preseason conference favorite, and those priors have mostly held through the opening weeks of the season despite Tech’s mostly uninspiring play. 

A fundamental truth of sports betting is that when one piece of a market is overvalued, some other piece of the market must be undervalued. And so I, along with other college football bettors I know, have been looking for compelling counterparts to bet in the Big 12.

On the Ten12 show, Phillip and I have generally agreed that BYU looks like the best team in the conference, and so that would be my prediction. With the Cougars still available at 5-to-1, that’s a strong bet. 

But if you’re a bettor searching for value, Kansas State football odds at 13-to-1 is probably more compelling from a handicapping standpoint. Certainly, the Wildcats appear to be a more interesting bet at cost than the other teams in this general zone – Utah (+550) or Houston (+1000). 

Even with the concession that BYU is better than Kansas State, you can still bet on a more valuable number and potentially get an upset in the conference title game. 

Recall what happened in 2022, when TCU made it to the national championship game, but not before previously losing the Big 12 championship to … who else? 

Kansas State.