TCU vs Kansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Big 12 Championship

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Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay watches his players during an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
(AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 01, 2022, 11:00 AM
  • TCU (12-0) are -2.5 point favorites vs Kansas State (9-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 62.5 points
  • Watch the Big 12 Championship game on ABC

The Kansas State Wildcats (10-3) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) on Dec. 3. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Arlington.

are betting favorites in Week 14, with the spread sitting at ().

The Kansas State vs. TCU Over/Under is total points.

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Kansas State vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Big 12 Championship:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kansas State
TCU

Kansas State vs TCU Prediction, Big 12 Championship:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 51.1% confidence.

Kansas State vs TCU Spread Prediction, Big 12 Championship:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 58.9% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Kansas State and TCU, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Kansas State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kansas State players for Week 14, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Deuce Vaughn has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Adrian Martinez has hit the TD Passes Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)

Best TCU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for TCU players for Week 14, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Quentin Johnston has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Kendre Miller has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.10 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Kansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+14.60 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Kansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Kansas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Kansas State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+8.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Kansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+14.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.05 Units / 72% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.85 Units / 56% ROI)
  • TCU have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Kansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Kansas State is 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 14.68% ROI
  • Kansas State is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Kansas State is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • TCU is 11-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +13 Units / 50.98% ROI
  • TCU is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
  • TCU is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Kansas State: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

#13 Kansas State is 9-4 (.692) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2021 season– 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .415

#13 Kansas State is 6-5 (.545) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .381

#13 Kansas State is 10-2 (.667) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season– tied for 11th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .503

#13 Kansas State is 12-4 (.632) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season– 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .453

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas State

#3 TCU is undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times — tied for best in FBS; Average: .406

#3 TCU is undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .441

#3 TCU is undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .433

#3 TCU is undefeated (10-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — tied for 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .501

Matchup Notes for Kansas State vs. TCU

TCU has gained 3,001 yards on 222 receptions (13.5 YPR) this season — best among Big 12 skill players. Kansas State’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU has gained 5,785 yards on 416 receptions (13.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Big 12 skill players. Kansas State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU has gained 5,785 yards on 416 receptions (13.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. Kansas State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State has gained 4,560 yards on 359 receptions (12.7 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among Big 12 skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed 13.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for worst among P5 defenses.

Kansas State’s WRs has gained 3,057 yards on 225 receptions (13.6 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-worst among Big 12 WRs. TCU’s defense has allowed 13.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for worst among P5 defenses.

Kansas State’s TEs has 10 receptions in 9 games (just 1.1 per game) this season — fifth-worst among P5 TEs. TCU’s defense has allowed just 18.0 receptions per game this season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

#13 Kansas State Skill Players have averaged 16.6 yards per reception (849 yards/51 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.4

#13 Kansas State RBs have 11 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams

Kansas State has gained 4,560 yards on 359 receptions (12.7 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among Big 12 skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed 13.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for worst among P5 defenses.

Kansas State’s WRs has gained 3,057 yards on 225 receptions (13.6 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-worst among Big 12 WRs. TCU’s defense has allowed 13.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for worst among P5 defenses.

Kansas State’s TEs has 10 receptions in 9 games (just 1.1 per game) this season — fifth-worst among P5 TEs. TCU’s defense has allowed just 18.0 receptions per game this season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU has gained 3,001 yards on 222 receptions (13.5 YPR) this season — best among Big 12 skill players. Kansas State’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU has gained 5,785 yards on 416 receptions (13.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Big 12 skill players. Kansas State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU has gained 5,785 yards on 416 receptions (13.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. Kansas State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,799 yards on 313 receptions (15.3 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-best among Power 5 WRs. Kansas State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,799 yards on 313 receptions (15.3 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Big 12 WRs. Kansas State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — second-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

#13 Kansas State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 4 of 106 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long since last season– tied for 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 10%

#13 Kansas State’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 16% of PATs this season– 2nd highest in FBS; Average: 6%

#13 Kansas State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 4 of 106 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long since last season– tied for 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 9%

#13 Kansas State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 1 of 57 attempts (2%) on 3rd and long this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 10%

#13 Kansas State has allowed a passer rating of just 82.5 in close and late situations (52.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 121.7

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

#3 TCU has forced 9 fumbles on 852 carries (94.7 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 41.5

#3 TCU has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 25 of 678 attempts (4%) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

#3 TCU has allowed first downs on 34% of rush attempts in close and late situations since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 22%

#3 TCU has forced 9 fumbles on 852 carries (94.7 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 42.0

#3 TCU has allowed 14.1 yards per completion (5,600 yards/396 completions) since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.4


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.