Kent State vs Buffalo Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 26, 2024, 2:06 PM

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Buffalo's C.J. Bazile (53) tackles Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez (2) as he attempts to make a pass during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021, at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Neb. (AP Photo/Rebecca S. Gratz)

(AP Photo/Rebecca S. Gratz)

Buffalo is a -23.5 point favorite vs. Kent State
Kent State vs. Buffalo Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

The Kent State Golden Flashes (0-11) visit UB Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bulls (7-4) on Nov. 26 in Buffalo, NY. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

Buffalo is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -23.5 (-115).

The Kent State vs. Buffalo Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Kent State vs. Buffalo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Kent State	+23.5 -105	49.5 -105	+1050
Buffalo	-23.5 -115	49.5 -115	-2500

Kent State vs Buffalo Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Buffalo will win this game with 93.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kent State and Buffalo U, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kent State vs Buffalo Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Buffalo will cover the spread with 61.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Kent State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kent State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.80 Units / 40% ROI)
Kent State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)
Kent State has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Buffalo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Buffalo has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+8.10 Units / 78% ROI)
Buffalo has hit the Game Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Buffalo have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.85 Units / 26% ROI)
Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 46% ROI)
Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.60 Units / 26% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kent State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kent State Player Prop Bets Today

Chrishon McCray has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ky Thomas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Luke Floriea has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Buffalo players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buffalo Player Prop Best Bets Today

Al-Jay Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
JJ Jenkins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Kent State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kent State is 3-8 against the spread this college football season (-5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI).

Kent State is 0-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -20 Units / -100% ROI
Kent State is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Kent State is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Buffalo U is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI).

Buffalo is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 62.28% ROI
Buffalo is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 30.58% ROI
Buffalo is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -38.84% ROI

Kent State: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo

Kent State is winless (0-4) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .480

Kent State is winless (0-19) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .416

Kent State is winless (0-4) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .504

Kent State is winless (0-21) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .381

Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Kent State

Buffalo is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .704

Buffalo is 7-2 (.778) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .584

Buffalo is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .641

Buffalo is 2-7 (.222) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– 26th-worst in FBS; Average: .385

Matchup Notes for Kent State vs. Buffalo

Buffalo’s offense has thrown for 2,092 passing yards in 11 games (just 190.2 YPG) this season — 30th-worst among FBS offenses. Kent State’s defense has allowed 256.4 passing yards per game this season — 19th-worst among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s QBs has thrown for 2,092 passing yards in 11 games (just 190.2 YPG) this season — 30th-worst among FBS teams. Kent State’s defense has allowed 256.4 passing yards per game this season — 19th-worst among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s RBs has averaged 10.2 yards after the catch this season — T-23rd-best among FBS RBs. Kent State’s defense has allowed 13.3 RAC this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kent State’s TEs has 5 receptions in 9 games (just 0.6 per game) this season — 4th-worst among FBS TEs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 23.0 receptions per game this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kent State’s offense has thrown for 1,774 passing yards in 11 games (just 161.3 YPG) this season — 11th-worst among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 272.8 passing yards per game this season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kent State’s QBs has thrown for 1,774 passing yards in 11 games (just 161.3 YPG) this season — 11th-worst among FBS teams. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 272.8 passing yards per game this season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kent State Offensive Stats & Trends

Kent State RBs have averaged 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (210 yards / 95 touches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Kent State Skill Players have averaged 24.1 yards per reception (313 yards/13 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.3

Kent State RBs have averaged just 2.1 Yards per Carry (196 yards/93 carries) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Kent State RBs have averaged 1.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (87 yards / 47 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo RBs had 80 receiving yards on 1st down last week– most among FBS Teams

Buffalo’s RBs has averaged 10.2 yards after the catch this season — T-23rd-best among FBS RBs. Kent State’s defense has allowed 13.3 RAC this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Buffalo RBs have averaged just 4.4 Yards per Carry (2,659 yards/603 carries) since the 2023 season– T-15th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Kent State Golden Flashes Defensive Stats & Trends

Kent State has allowed 8.0 touchdowns per interception (24 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.7

Kent State has allowed 247.5 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– worst in FBS; Average: 144.4

Kent State has allowed 8.0 touchdowns per interception (24 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Kent State has allowed 5.0 touchdowns per interception (45 TDs allowed, and 9 INT) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Kent State has allowed 17 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most in FBS

Buffalo Bulls Defensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo sacked opponents 6 times last week– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Buffalo has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 19 of 125 attempts (15%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

Buffalo has allowed 228.4 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 168.4

Buffalo has allowed 228.4 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 163.5

Buffalo has tackled opponents for a loss on 146 of 829 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 31st-best in FBS; Average: 16%.