Kent State vs Central Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

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(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 05, 2023, 1:30 PM
  • Central Florida is a -36.5 point favorite vs Kent State
  • Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Kent State Golden Flashes visit FBC Mortgage Stadium to take on the UCF Knights on Aug. 31. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Orlando.

is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at ().

The Kent State vs. Central Florida Over/Under is total points.

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Kent State vs. Central Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kent State
Central Florida

Kent State vs Central Florida Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 95.0% confidence.

Kent State vs Central Florida Spread Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCF will cover the spread with 80.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Kent State and Central Florida, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Central Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Central Florida players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • John Rhys Plumlee has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Javon Baker has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • John Rhys Plumlee has hit the Passing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • John Rhys Plumlee has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Kent State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.10 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Kent State have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Kent State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Kent State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kent State have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • UCF have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)

Kent State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kent State went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Kent State went 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -21.4% ROI
  • Kent State went 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Kent State went 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI

Central Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Central Florida went 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -9.69% ROI
  • Central Florida went 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
  • Central Florida went 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI

Central Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Kent State

UCF is winless (0-1) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .436

UCF is winless (0-1) when not forcing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .449

UCF is winless (0-1) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .515

UCF was winless (0-1) when not forcing a fumble in the 2022 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .455

Matchup Notes for Kent State vs. Central Florida

John Rhys Plumlee (UCF) has just 2.0 TDs per interception (6/3) in the red zone since the 2021 season — worst of Qualified Quarterbackss. Kent State’s defense has allowed just 3.5 TDs per Interception when defending in the red zone since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best among FBS defenses.

John Rhys Plumlee (UCF) threw for 765 passing yards in 6 games (just 127.5 YPG) in the 2022 season — third-worst of Qualified Big 12 Quarterbackss. Kent State’s defense allowed 285.8 passing yards per game in the 2022 season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

UCF’s TEs had 11 receptions in 7 games (just 1.6 per game) in the 2022 season — third-worst among Big 12 TEs. Kent State’s defense allowed 23.4 receptions per game in the 2022 season — second-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Kent State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 12.3% of 350 attempts in the 2022 season — tied for 35th-best among FBS offenses. UCF’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 10.9% of attempts in the 2022 season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kent State’s RBs averaged 11.4 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — eighth-best among FBS RBs. UCF’s defense allowed 12.6 RAC in the 2022 season — fourth-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kent State gained 2,584 yards on 193 receptions (13.4 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 24th-best among FBS skill players. UCF’s defense allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — fourth-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kent State Offensive Stats & Trends

Kent State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 12.3% of 350 attempts in the 2022 season — tied for 35th-best among FBS offenses. UCF’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 10.9% of attempts in the 2022 season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kent State’s RBs averaged 11.4 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — eighth-best among FBS RBs. UCF’s defense allowed 12.6 RAC in the 2022 season — fourth-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kent State gained 2,584 yards on 193 receptions (13.4 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 24th-best among FBS skill players. UCF’s defense allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — fourth-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kent State averaged 13.3 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for 18th-best among FBS skill players. UCF’s defense allowed 12.6 RAC in the 2022 season — fourth-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kent State Kickers have averaged 48.8 yards per kickoff (7,461 yards/153 kickoffs) since the 2021 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 61.2

Central Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

UCF Skill Players have been targeted 59 times on 3rd down since the 2021 season– 3rd-fewest among Power 5 Teams

UCF’s TEs had 11 receptions in 7 games (just 1.6 per game) in the 2022 season — third-worst among Big 12 TEs. Kent State’s defense allowed 23.4 receptions per game in the 2022 season — second-worst among NonP5 defenses.

UCF Skill Players have averaged just 6.7 yards per reception (173 yards/26 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2021 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.4

UCF’s TEs had 11 receptions in 7 games (just 1.6 per game) in the 2022 season — third-worst among Big 12 TEs. Kent State’s defense allowed 23.4 receptions per game in the 2022 season — tied for seventh-worst among FBS defenses.

UCF’s RBs averaged 9.0 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for 35th-best among FBS RBs. Kent State’s defense allowed just 6.7 RAC to RBs in the 2022 season — tied for 32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Kent State Golden Flashes Defensive Stats & Trends

Kent State allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (282 completions/403 attempts) in the 2022 season– tied for 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 60%

Kent State allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (282 completions/403 attempts) in the 2022 season– tied for 2nd-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

Kent State allowed opponents to catch 281 of 402 passes (70% Reception Pct) in the 2022 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 60%

Kent State allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 1 of 51 attempts (2%) on 3rd and long in the 2022 season– tied for 2nd-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 10%

Kent State allowed opponents to catch 281 of 402 passes (70% Reception Pct) in the 2022 season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

UCF Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

UCF opponents has averaged 42.5 Passing Attempts per TD (722 Pass Attempts/17 Passing TDs) since the 2021 season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 18.8

UCF opponents averaged 51.4 Passing Attempts per TD (257 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the 2022 season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.2

UCF intercepted 2 of 257 attempts (128.5 pass attempts per int.) in the 2022 season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 37.0

UCF opponents averaged 10.3 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.9

UCF allowed 5 touchdowns on 145 completions (29.0 Completions Per TD) in the 2022 season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.