- Liberty is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Buffalo U
- Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
- Watch the game on CBS Sports Network
The Liberty Flames visit UB Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bulls on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Buffalo.
Liberty is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Liberty vs. Buffalo U Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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Liberty vs. Buffalo U Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Liberty | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -150 |
| Buffalo U | +3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +125 |
Liberty vs Buffalo U Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 62.1% confidence.
Liberty vs Buffalo U Spread Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 52.2% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Liberty and Buffalo U, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Liberty Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- Liberty have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Buffalo U Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the Team Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Buffalo have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Liberty is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 28.99% ROI
- Liberty is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Liberty is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Buffalo U Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Buffalo U is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Buffalo U is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Buffalo U is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Buffalo U is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo U
Liberty is 4-1 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .398
Liberty is 8-1 (.889) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2022 season– tied for 4th-best in FBS; Average: .559
Liberty is 12-7 (.632) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .421
Liberty is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2022 season– tied for 10th-best in FBS; Average: .531
Buffalo U: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty
There are no Keys to the Game notes available for this game
Matchup Notes for Liberty vs. Buffalo U
Buffalo’s WRs has 227 receptions in 15 games (15.1 per game) since the 2022 season — 29th-best among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 16.9 receptions per game since the 2022 season — tied for 23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s WRs has 36 receptions in 2 games (18.0 per game) this season — tied for 22nd-best among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 12.5 receptions per game this season — tied for third-best among NonP5 defenses.
Buffalo has 50 receptions in 2 games (25.0 per game) this season — tied for 21st-best among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 12.5 receptions per game this season — tied for third-best among NonP5 defenses.
Liberty’s WRs has 18 receptions in 2 games (just 9.0 per game) this season — tied for 17th-worst among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 23.5 receptions per game this season — tied for 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty has 26 receptions in 2 games (just 13.0 per game) this season — tied for 10th-worst among FBS skill players. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 23.5 receptions per game this season — tied for 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s QBs has rushed for 125 yards on 28 carries (4.5 YPC) this season — tied for 31st-best among FBS teams. Buffalo’s defense have allowed 5.6 YPC this season — tied for eighth-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends
Liberty QBs have averaged 75.0 rushing yards per game (75/1) in the 1st half this season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 16.5
Liberty QBs have rushed for 62 yards in the 1st quarter this season– 4th-most among FBS Teams
Liberty’s WRs has 18 receptions in 2 games (just 9.0 per game) this season — tied for 17th-worst among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 23.5 receptions per game this season — tied for 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty RBs have averaged 166.0 rushing yards per game (166/1) this season– 32nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 130.9
Liberty QBs have averaged 14.0 carries per game (14 carries / 1 games) in the 1st half this season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5
Buffalo U Offensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo RBs have been targeted 11.0 times per game (11/1) this season– tied for 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.3
Buffalo RBs averaged 3.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (510 yards / 151 touches) on 1st down in the 2022 season– tied for worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Buffalo’s WRs has 227 receptions in 15 games (15.1 per game) since the 2022 season — 29th-best among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 16.9 receptions per game since the 2022 season — tied for 23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo Punters placed 4% of punts inside the 20 (1/22) in the 2022 season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 32%
Buffalo’s WRs has 36 receptions in 2 games (18.0 per game) this season — tied for 22nd-best among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 12.5 receptions per game this season — tied for third-best among NonP5 defenses.
Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends
Liberty has averaged 5.00 interceptions per game (5/1) this season– best in FBS; Average: 0.85
Liberty tackled opponents for a loss on 105 of 434 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the 2022 season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.
Liberty has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 11 of 31 carries (35%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 12%
Liberty has 5 interceptions this season– 2nd-most in FBS
Liberty has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 11 of 31 carries (35%) this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 12%
Buffalo Bulls Defensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo has tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 29 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) on 3rd and short since last season– tied for 3rd best in FBS; Average: 12%.
Buffalo allowed 10.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (212 yards / 21 touches) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 4.9
Buffalo allowed 10.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (212 yards / 21 touches) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 5.1
Buffalo has allowed 338.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 133.0
Buffalo has allowed a passer rating of 242.7 in the Red Zone (45.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 165.0
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