Liberty vs Connecticut Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:50 PM
  • Liberty (8-1) are -14.5 point favorites vs Connecticut (5-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45 points
  • Watch the game on CBS Sports Network

The Liberty Flames (8-3) visit Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field to take on the UConn Huskies (6-6) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in East Hartford.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Liberty vs. Connecticut is total points.

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Liberty vs. Connecticut Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Liberty
Connecticut

Liberty vs Connecticut Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 62% confidence.

Liberty vs Connecticut Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 51% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Liberty and Connecticut, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+11.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.79 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Connecticut has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+14.15 Units / 118% ROI)
  • Connecticut has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+10.05 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Connecticut has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.40 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Connecticut have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Connecticut has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 4 games (+5.75 Units / 62% ROI)

Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Liberty has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Liberty is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 36.77% ROI
  • Liberty is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Liberty is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Connecticut Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Connecticut has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Connecticut is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.15 Units / 101.15% ROI
  • Connecticut is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -46.46% ROI
  • Connecticut is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 38.38% ROI

Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. Connecticut

Liberty is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks — tied for 7th-best in FBS; Average: .552

Liberty is 10-4 (.714) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .420

Liberty is 9-1 (.900) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .497

Connecticut: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty

UConn is 1-9 (.100) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .497

UConn is winless (0-13) when allowing 22 or more points — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .284

UConn is winless (0-10) when not forcing a fumble — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .441

UConn is winless (0-7) when intercepting no passes — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .353

Matchup Notes for Liberty vs. Connecticut

UConn’s WRs have just 86.4 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 191.2 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among NonP5 defenses.

Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends

#19 Liberty Skill Players have 29 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– most among FBS Teams

#19 Liberty Skill Players have averaged 16.7 yards per reception (1,339 yards/80 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

#19 Liberty WRs have 18 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

#19 Liberty Skill Players have 13 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

#19 Liberty QBs have 9 completions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Connecticut Offensive Stats & Trends

UConn RBs have no touchdowns on 74 receptions since last season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 20.8

UConn WRs have fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

UConn QBs have averaged 124.9 Passing Yards per game (999/8) this season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 247.7

UConn Skill Players have averaged just 8.6 yards per reception (584 yards/68 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

UConn has averaged 113.1 Passing Yards per game (905/8) this season– 5th worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 235.4*

Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends

#19 Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 74 of 294 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– tied for best in FBS; Average: 16%.

#19 Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 74 of 294 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– tied for best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

#19 Liberty has allowed a passer rating of just 115.5 (247.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 5th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 135.4

#19 Liberty has allowed 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (155 yards / 19 touches) on 3rd and short this season– tied for 4th worst in FBS; Average: 4.9

#19 Liberty has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (29/247) this season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

UConn Huskies Defensive Stats & Trends

UConn has allowed one passing TD (22 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 4.0

UConn has allowed one passing TD (22 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.8

UConn opponents has averaged 51.2 Passing Attempts per TD (256 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 18.9

UConn opponents has averaged 51.2 Passing Attempts per TD (256 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 20.7

UConn has allowed 5 touchdowns on 161 completions (32.2 Completions Per TD) this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 12.5


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.