Louisiana vs Florida State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:35 AM
  • Florida State (7-3) are -24 point favorites vs Louisiana (5-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points

The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (5-6) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on the Florida State Seminoles (8-3) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Tallahassee.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Louisiana vs. Florida State is total points.

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Louisiana vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Louisiana
Florida State

Louisiana vs Florida State Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Florida State will win this game with 69% confidence.

Louisiana vs Florida State Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisiana will cover the spread with 52% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisiana and Florida State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Florida State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida State players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jordan Travis has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Mycah Pittman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Jordan Travis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Johnny Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Ontaria Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Louisiana have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+9.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Florida State have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+7.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Florida State have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)

Louisiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisiana has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Louisiana is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -1.86% ROI
  • Louisiana is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Louisiana is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Florida State is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 5.99% ROI
  • Florida State is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Florida State is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Louisiana: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State

Louisiana is 15-3 (.750) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .515

Louisiana is 11-2 (.733) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game — tied for 14th-best in FBS; Average: .503

Louisiana is 13-2 (.812) when not losing a fumble — 8th-best in FBS; Average: .508

Louisiana is 14-3 (.778) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .513

Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Louisiana

Florida State is 3-10 (.231) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 6th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .506

Florida State is 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .509

Florida State is 9-3 (.692) when scoring 22 or more points — tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .521

Florida State is 3-13 (.188) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .465

Matchup Notes for Louisiana vs. Florida State

Louisiana’s offense has 6 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-fewest among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense has allowed 8 rushing TDs this season — tied for second-fewest among ACC defenses.

Louisiana Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana TEs have 19 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Louisiana RBs have rushed for 17 TDs in the 4th quarter since last season– most among FBS Teams

Louisiana TEs have been targeted 18 times in close and late situations this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Louisiana TEs have 14 receptions in close and late situations this season– 4th most among FBS Teams

Louisiana TEs have been targeted 12 times in short yardage situations this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends

#20 Florida State QBs have 9 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

#20 Florida State RBs have averaged 7.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,467 yards / 204 touches) on 2nd down since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

#20 Florida State WRs have averaged 12.9 yards per target (181 yards/14 targets) in close and late situations this season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#20 Florida State RBs have averaged 6.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,970 yards / 287 touches) in the 1st half since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

#20 Florida State Skill Players have averaged 17.7 yards per reception (283 yards/16 catches) in close and late situations this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.2

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana has no interceptions (49 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 33.1

Louisiana has allowed 2.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (151 yards / 64 touches) in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.6

Louisiana’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 18% of PATs this season– 2nd highest in FBS; Average: 6%

Louisiana’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 10% of PATs since last season– 2nd highest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 4%

Louisiana’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 18% of PATs this season– highest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 5%

Florida State Seminoles Defensive Stats & Trends

#20 Florida State has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (24/215) this season– tied for 5th best in FBS; Average: 7%

#20 Florida State has allowed first downs on 46% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 28%

#20 Florida State has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (24/215) this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

#20 Florida State has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 61 carries (7.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.8

#20 Florida State has allowed first downs on 4% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.