Louisville vs Cincinnati Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: Wasabi Fenway Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 16, 2022, 11:15 AM
  • Louisville (7-5) are -1.5 point favorites vs Cincinnati (9-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
  • Watch the Wasabi Fenway Bowl game on ESPN

The Cincinnati Bearcats (8-5) visit Fenway Park to take on the Louisville Cardinals (9-4) on Dec. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00am EST in Boston for the Wasabi Fenway Bowl.

are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at ().

The Louisville vs. Cincinnati Over/Under is total points.

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Louisville vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Bowl Game:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Louisville
Cincinnati

Louisville vs Cincinnati Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 53.0% confidence.

Louisville vs Cincinnati Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Cincinnati will cover the spread with 51.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Cincinnati, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Cincinnati Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Cincinnati players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Malik Cunningham has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Malik Cunningham has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Malik Cunningham has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Ahmari Huggins-Bruce has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Cincinnati has hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Cincinnati has hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Cincinnati has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Cincinnati has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.65 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.30 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)

Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisville has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Louisville is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 6.8% ROI
  • Louisville is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Louisville is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Cincinnati has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Cincinnati is 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -7.68% ROI
  • Cincinnati is 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Cincinnati is 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI

Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati

Cincinnati is 16-4 (.800) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .421

Cincinnati is 18-2 (.818) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-best in FBS; Average: .631

Cincinnati is 13-2 (.867) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-best in FBS; Average: .559

Cincinnati is 15-1 (.833) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: .555

Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville

Louisville is 2-7 (.167) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .335

Louisville is 2-8 (.200) when not forcing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .451

Louisville is 1-7 (.125) when intercepting no passes since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .340

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends

Cincinnati TEs have 28 receptions in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Cincinnati RBs have averaged 6.1 Yards per Carry (950 yards/157 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– 5th best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Cincinnati TEs have been targeted 44 times in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Cincinnati TEs have caught 13 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

Cincinnati TEs have been targeted 19 times in the Red Zone this season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

Cincinnati Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisville QBs have rushed for 30 TDs since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Louisville QBs have rushed for 23 TDs in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Louisville QBs have rushed for 10 TDs in the 1st quarter since last season– most among FBS Teams

Louisville RBs have fumbled 14 times since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Louisville RBs have averaged 8.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (644 yards / 78 touches) on 3rd down since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6

Cincinnati Bearcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Cincinnati has allowed just 173.0 receiving yards per game (4,326/25) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 228.3

Cincinnati has allowed 187.9 Passing Yards per game (4,697/25) since last season– best in FBS; Average: 240.7

Cincinnati has allowed a passer rating of just 110.0 (710.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 132.6

Cincinnati has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (53 completions/116 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 59%

Cincinnati has allowed a passer rating of just 110.0 (710.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 135.3

Louisville Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (37/319) this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (37/319) this season– tied for 2nd best in FBS; Average: 7%

Louisville has intercepted 3 of 35 attempts (11.7 pass attempts per int.) in the Red Zone this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 37.0

Louisville has averaged 3.4 sacks per game this season– tied for 3rd best in FBS; Average: 2.2

Louisville has averaged a sack every 8.6 pass attempts (319 Pass Attempts/37 Sacks) this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.