Louisville vs Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2022, 9:08 AM
  • Kentucky (6-5) are -3 point favorites vs Louisville (7-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points

The Louisville Cardinals (7-4) visit Kroger Field to take on the Kentucky Wildcats (6-5) on Nov. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Lexington.

Kentucky are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Louisville vs. Kentucky Over/Under is 43.5 total points.

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Louisville vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Louisville+3 -11043.5 -115+135
Kentucky -3 -11043.5 -105-165

Louisville vs Kentucky Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Kentucky will win this game with 56.6% confidence.

Louisville vs Kentucky Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 57.5% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Kentucky, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Louisville Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Louisville players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Malik Cunningham has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Malik Cunningham has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Malik Cunningham has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Ahmari Huggins-Bruce has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Best Kentucky Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kentucky players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Tayvion Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Will Levis has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+2.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.30 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Kentucky have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.85 Units / 40% ROI)

Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisville has gone 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).

  • Louisville is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -3.68% ROI
  • Louisville is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
  • Louisville is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kentucky has gone 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.55 Units / 20.99% ROI).

  • Kentucky is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -35.5% ROI
  • Kentucky is 1-10 when betting the Over for -10 Units / -82.64% ROI
  • Kentucky is 10-1 when betting the Under for +8.9 Units / 73.55% ROI

Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky

Louisville is 2-7 (.222) when not forcing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .453

Louisville is 2-6 (.182) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .331

Louisville is 1-6 (.143) when intercepting no passes since the 2021 season– tied for 15th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .338

Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville

Kentucky is 1-7 (.125) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2021 season– tied for 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .298

Kentucky is 7-2 (.636) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .473

Matchup Notes for Louisville vs. Kentucky

Louisville’s QBs has 1,583 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fourth-most among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 3,065 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fifth-fewest among SEC defenses.

Louisville’s QBs has 29 rushing touchdowns since the 2021 season — second-most among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 26 rushing TDs since the 2021 season — fourth-fewest among SEC defenses.

Louisville’s QBs has 22 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for most among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 26 rushing TDs since the 2021 season — fourth-fewest among SEC defenses.

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisville RBs have averaged 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (606 yards / 72 touches) on 3rd down since last season– tied for 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6

Louisville Skill Players have averaged 16.8 yards per reception (875 yards/52 catches) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.3

Louisville QBs have rushed for 10 TDs in the 1st quarter since last season– most among FBS Teams

Louisville QBs have rushed for 1,583 yards since the 2021 season– 4th-most among FBS Teams

Louisville QBs have rushed for 29 TDs since the 2021 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky RBs have averaged 6.8 Yards per Carry (983 yards/145 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Kentucky have been sacked on 14% of pass attempts (36/267) this season– worst among Power 5 Offenses; Average: 6%

Kentucky RBs have averaged 7.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,135 yards / 163 touches) in the 4th quarter since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Kentucky have gone for two on 18% of PATs this season– highest among Power 5 Offenses; Average: 5%

Kentucky RBs have carried the ball 35 times on 3rd down since last season– 3rd fewest among FBS Teams

Louisville Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (35/300) this season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (35/300) this season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 7%

Louisville has forced 16 fumbles this season– tied for 2nd most in FBS

Louisville has averaged 3.5 sacks per game this season– tied for best in FBS; Average: 2.2

Louisville has forced 16 fumbles this season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky has allowed 6 touchdowns on 160 completions (26.7 Completions Per TD) this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 12.5

Kentucky opponents has averaged 44.5 Passing Attempts per TD (267 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) this season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 22.7

Kentucky has allowed 2.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (161 yards / 61 touches) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.7

Kentucky has allowed 6 touchdowns on 160 completions (26.7 Completions Per TD) this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.5

Kentucky has allowed 6.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (188 yards / 29 touches) on 3rd and short this season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.