LSU vs Arkansas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

min read
AP Photos
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:50 PM
  • LSU (7-2) are -3 point favorites vs Arkansas (5-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 63 points
  • Watch the game on

The LSU Tigers (9-2) visit Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Fayetteville.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for LSU vs. Arkansas is total points.

Bet now on Arkansas vs LSU & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

LSU vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
LSU
Arkansas

LSU vs Arkansas Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts LSU will win this game with 54.6% confidence.

LSU vs Arkansas Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas will cover the spread with 61.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both LSU and Arkansas, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best LSU Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for LSU players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jayden Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Malik Nabers has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Kayshon Boutte has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Arkansas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Arkansas players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jadon Haselwood has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Raheim Sanders has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 18 games (+12.95 Units / 61% ROI)
  • LSU has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • LSU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • LSU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 games (+3.36 Units / 8% ROI)
  • LSU has hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Arkansas have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Arkansas have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • LSU is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 44.26% ROI
  • LSU is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
  • LSU is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Arkansas is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -26.86% ROI
  • Arkansas is 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI
  • Arkansas is 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas

LSU is undefeated (4-0) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush — 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .501

#25 LSU is 2-12 (.143) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2020 season– 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .392

LSU is 1-7 (.091) when throwing at least 1 interception — tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .308

#25 LSU is 3-16 (.136) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2020 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .350

Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Arkansas is 2-7 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2020 season– tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .392

Arkansas is 4-11 (.250) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2020 season– tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .465

Arkansas is 4-12 (.235) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2020 season– 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .434

Arkansas is 4-13 (.222) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season– 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .419

Matchup Notes for LSU vs. Arkansas

Arkansas’s RBs has gained 348 yards on 26 receptions (13.4 YPR) this season — tied for fourth-best among FBS RBs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — third-worst among SEC defenses.

LSU’s QBs has 10 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for third-most among FBS teams. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 18 rushing TDs this season — tied for second-most among SEC defenses.

LSU’s QBs has 9 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most among FBS teams. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 18 rushing TDs this season — tied for fourth-most among P5 defenses.

LSU’s QBs has 9 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most among FBS teams. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 13 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — fourth-most among SEC defenses.

LSU Offensive Stats & Trends

#7 LSU WRs have been targeted 153 times in the 4th quarter since last season– 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

#7 LSU Skill Players have averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (387 yards/44 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.4

#7 LSU QBs have rushed for 10 TDs this season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

#7 LSU WRs have caught 10 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

#7 LSU QBs have rushed for 597 yards this season– 4th most among FBS Teams

Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Arkansas QBs have 9 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Arkansas RBs have picked up first downs on 7 receptions on 3rd down this season– tied for 5th most among FBS Teams

Arkansas QBs have rushed for 140 yards in close and late situations this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Arkansas’s RBs has gained 348 yards on 26 receptions (13.4 YPR) this season — tied for fourth-best among FBS RBs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — third-worst among SEC defenses.

LSU Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

#7 LSU has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 24 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

#7 LSU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 30 of 283 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

#7 LSU has allowed first downs on 41% of rush attempts in close and late situations this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 22%

#7 LSU has allowed a passer rating of just 87.7 in the Red Zone (26.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 156.6

#7 LSU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 12 of 115 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas defense has allowed 41 completions for 20 or more yards this season– tied for fewest in FBS

Arkansas has allowed 340.0 Passing Yards per game (2,720/8) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 239.7

Arkansas has allowed 41 receptions for 20+ yards this season– tied for fewest among Power 5 Teams

Arkansas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 35 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

Arkansas has allowed 340.0 Passing Yards per game (2,720/8) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 240.7


Looking to place a bet on this game with a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Arkansas vs LSU and all NCAAF games with BetMGM

College Football Betting at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NFL betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.