- LSU is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Mississippi State
- Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
- Watch the game on ESPN
The LSU Tigers visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Starkville.
LSU is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).
The LSU vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 54 total points.
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LSU vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| LSU | -9.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -350 |
| Mississippi State | +9.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +275 |
LSU vs Mississippi State Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts LSU will win this game with 77.5% confidence.
LSU vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts LSU will cover the spread with 65.4% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both LSU and Mississippi State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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LSU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- LSU has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- LSU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- LSU has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- LSU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 11% ROI)
Mississippi State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 95% ROI)
- Mississippi State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Best LSU Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for LSU players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Malik Nabers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Passing Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Mississippi State Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Mississippi State players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jo’quavious Marks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jo’quavious Marks has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Will Rogers has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Will Rogers has hit the Passing Yards Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
LSU is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- LSU is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -100% ROI
- LSU is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- LSU is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi State is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 28.99% ROI
- Mississippi State is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Mississippi State is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
#5 LSU is 2-8 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .385
#5 LSU was 5-2 (.714) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2022 season– tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495
#5 LSU is 4-1 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2022 season– tied for 15th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .630
#5 LSU is 3-1 (.600) when not losing a fumble since the 2022 season– tied for 12th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .398
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. LSU
Mississippi State is undefeated (5-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .426
Mississippi State is undefeated (6-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season– tied for 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .437
Mississippi State is 7-1 (.583) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2022 season– tied for 11th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .405
Mississippi State is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .494
Matchup Notes for LSU vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s QBs has thrown for 4,662 passing yards in 15 games (310.8 YPG) since the 2022 season — 12th-best among FBS teams. LSU’s defense has allowed just 223.4 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — fifth-best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s TEs has 1 receptions in 5 games (just 0.2 per game) since the 2022 season — worst among P5 TEs. LSU’s defense has allowed just 17.2 receptions per game since the 2022 season — third-best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.1% of 673 attempts since the 2022 season — tied for eighth-worst among FBS offenses. LSU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.1% of attempts since the 2022 season — third-best among SEC defenses.
LSU’s TEs has 7 receptions in 2 games (3.5 per game) this season — fifth-best among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 24.5 receptions per game this season — worst among SEC defenses.
LSU has gained 667 yards on 46 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — third-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for 23rd-best among FBS defenses.
LSU has gained 667 yards on 46 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — third-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — fourth-best among SEC defenses.
LSU Offensive Stats & Trends
LSU’s TEs has 7 receptions in 2 games (3.5 per game) this season — fifth-best among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 24.5 receptions per game this season — worst among SEC defenses.
LSU has gained 667 yards on 46 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — third-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for 23rd-best among FBS defenses.
LSU has gained 667 yards on 46 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — third-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — fourth-best among SEC defenses.
LSU has gained 667 yards on 46 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — tied for 22nd-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — fourth-best among SEC defenses.
LSU has gained 667 yards on 46 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — tied for 22nd-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for 23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State WRs have averaged 24.7 receptions per game (691/28) since the 2021 season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 34.9 receptions per game (977/28) since the 2021 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1
Mississippi State Skill Players averaged 32.3 receptions per game (355/11) in the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.8
Mississippi State Skill Players have been targeted 48.1 times per game (1,348/28) since the 2021 season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.9
Mississippi State RBs have been targeted 12.5 times per game (349/28) since the 2021 season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4
LSU Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends
#14 LSU has allowed a passer rating of 289.7 in the Red Zone (12.0 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 164.1
#14 LSU has allowed a passer rating of 289.7 in the Red Zone (12.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 162.9
#5 LSU allowed a passer rating of just 92.2 in the Red Zone (36.0 Pass Attempts) in the 2022 season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 158.0
#5 LSU opponents averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (36 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 4.0
#14 LSU has not allowed a pass completion for 20+ yards (17 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 9%
Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State has forced 4 fumbles this season– tied for 2nd-most among Non-Power 5 Teams
Mississippi State has forced 4 fumbles this season– tied for 2nd-most in FBS
Mississippi State has not allowed an opponent to rush for 20+ yards on any of their 111 carries since the 2021 season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 3%
Mississippi State has allowed a passer rating of 248.1 in the Red Zone (10.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 162.9
Mississippi State has allowed just 10.7 yards per completion (944 yards/88 completions) since last season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.3
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