Marshall vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

• Penn State Nittany Lions is a -24.5 point favorite vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
• Marshall vs. Penn State Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
• TV Channel: FS1

Marshall (0-0) visit West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium to take on Penn State (0-0) on Sep. 5 in University Park, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -24.5 (-108).

The Marshall vs. Penn State Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

Bet now on Penn State Nittany Lions vs Marshall Thundering Herd & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Marshall vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Marshall vs Penn State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 95.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Marshall Thundering Herd and Penn State Nittany Lions, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Marshall vs Penn State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Marshall will cover the spread with 52.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Penn State Nittany Lions vs Marshall Thundering Herd and all games with BetMGM

Marshall Best Bets Today

• Marshall has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
• Marshall has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• Marshall has hit the Team Total Under in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 94% ROI)
• Marshall has hit the Game Total Under in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• Marshall has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Penn State Best Bets Today

• Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 7 games at home (+7.57 Units / 96% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the Moneyline in their last 4 games (+4.15 Units / 36% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• Penn State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)

Marshall: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Marshall was 5-1 (.833) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Marshall was undefeated (8-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .628

Marshall was undefeated (8-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .591

Marshall was 8-2 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .570

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Marshall

Penn State was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .429

Penn State was 12-3 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .632

Penn State was 10-2 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .668

Penn State was 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .645

Matchup Notes for Marshall vs. Penn State

Penn State’s QBs threw for 2,439 passing yards in 13 games (just 187.6 YPG) last season — 34th-worst among FBS teams. Marshall’s defense allowed 261.7 passing yards per game last season — 5th-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Penn State’s offense threw for 2,439 passing yards in 13 games (just 187.6 YPG) last season — 33rd-worst among FBS offenses. Marshall’s defense allowed 261.7 passing yards per game last season — 5th-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Penn State’s QBs threw for 2,439 passing yards in 13 games (just 187.6 YPG) last season — 34th-worst among FBS teams. Marshall’s defense allowed 261.7 passing yards per game last season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Marshall’s RBs averaged 9.8 yards after the catch last season — T-21st-best among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 10.4 RAC last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Marshall’s RBs gained 268 yards on 27 receptions (9.9 YPR) last season — T-21st-best among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Marshall has 410 receptions in 25 games (just 16.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 27th-worst among FBS skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 17.8 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Marshall Offensive Stats & Trends

Marshall’s RBs averaged 9.8 yards after the catch last season — T-21st-best among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 10.4 RAC last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Marshall’s RBs gained 268 yards on 27 receptions (9.9 YPR) last season — T-21st-best among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Marshall RBs averaged 7.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (118 yards / 16 touches) on 3rd and short last season– T-7th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Marshall RBs averaged 7.3 Yards per Carry (550 yards/75 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Marshall RBs averaged 7.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (601 yards / 81 touches) in the 4th quarter last season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State TEs averaged 7.9 receptions per game (127/16) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7

Penn State TEs had 22 receptions for 20 or more yards last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Penn State TEs caught 9 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– most among Big Ten Teams

Penn State TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among Big Ten Teams

Penn State TEs were targeted 28 times with 4-6 yards to go last season– most among Big Ten Teams

Marshall Defensive Stats & Trends

Marshall allowed passes of 40+ yards on 19 of 365 attempts (5%) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

Marshall allowed 14.6 yards per completion (3,140 yards/215 completions) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 11.5

Marshall tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 37 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Marshall allowed 49.9 receiving yards per game (599/12) to RBs last season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 25.1

Marshall tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 37 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Penn State Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State allowed 10 rushing TDs on 534 carries (53.4 Carries Per TD) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 23.2

Penn State’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs last season– highest in the Big Ten; Average: 6%

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Penn State allowed 7 rushing TDs on 58 carries (8.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

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